Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Drive another couple hours to Tremblant if you want packed powder ...from the looks of it. .... I mean if you are relying on natural snow. I'm sure Whiteface has plenty of machine snow. X-country skiing paradise also around there in the Parc national du Mont-Tremblant. I hiked them last year around this time - there was at least 2ft of snow up there. I'm heading up to the ADKs tonight regardless of the weather. Gonna do some hiking tomorrow and was hoping to ski the whiteface toll road with fresh snow on Wed. Maybe we can get a little Eastward shift (we don't need much) and pull off 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Drive another couple hours to Tremblant if you want packed powder ...from the looks of it. .... I mean if you are relying on natural snow. I'm sure Whiteface has plenty of machine snow. X-country skiing paradise also around there in the Parc national du Mont-Tremblant. I am primarily working on the ADK W46 so I'm going there regardless of the conditions, it just is so much more fun with fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Ahh ok...I have done about ten of those peaks... I have done 30 of the 35 Catskill's 3500' peaks. I should finish them, but the last five are un-trailed bushwhacks. I may do a hike later this week such as Huntersfield in the nw Catskills ...3420 ft, but a nice hike ..probably no snow shoes needed at this rate. I am primarily working on the ADK W46 so I'm going there regardless of the conditions, it just is so much more fun with fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's too bad the Ottawa airport monthly data summaries are down until further notice. They stopped posting the data after December 15th. Ottawa iso ne of the more accurate snow depth measure sites. wow i just checked the website, and this is truly devestating news. i hope we arent going to lose snow depth measurements, but i am fearful. you are right, ottawa is probably one of the very best in north america at snow data. i can tell you by visual inspection that here in barrhaven, there was about 7-9cm (3-3.5inches) of snow yesterday, i saw the almanac recorded 8.6mm of precip, which i thought would translate into much more snow since it was a clipper type..... but i just shoveled and the snow was a bit wetter and less fluffier than typical clipper snows, so i think my estimate is pretty good. really really upset about this new though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Ottawa is on a nice roll. This is trending right to you for the best snow. If this keeps up even Tremblant will be tainted. HAH This is reminding me of 99-00 ...I went up to Tremblant just before the Millennium because there was absolutely no snow south of the border..or even in YUL. wow i just checked the website, and this is truly devestating news. i hope we arent going to lose snow depth measurements, but i am fearful. you are right, ottawa is probably one of the very best in north america at snow data. i can tell you by visual inspection that here in barrhaven, there was about 7-9cm (3-3.5inches) of snow yesterday, i saw the almanac recorded 8.6mm of precip, which i thought would translate into much more snow since it was a clipper type..... but i just shoveled and the snow was a bit wetter and less fluffier than typical clipper snows, so i think my estimate is pretty good. really really upset about this new though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'd say we got closer to 10cms in orleans yesterday.....what a gorgeous day it turned out to be! OL, how are things looking for Tue/Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 hopefully the final solution is closer to the gfs than it is to the NAM...NAM has over the half the precip as rain in BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Ottawa is on a nice roll. This is trending right to you for the best snow. If this keeps up even Tremblant will be tainted. HAH This is reminding me of 99-00 ...I went up to Tremblant just before the Millennium because there was absolutely no snow south of the border..or even in YUL. yeah there is finally a nice blanket down in CYOW now. i think that bodes well for the NE IMO in terms of getting cold air further south and into systems. it goes back to my whole Canaidan shield theory with ottawa on the S edge of the hinterlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 yeah there is finally a nice blanket down in CYOW now. i think that bodes well for the NE IMO in terms of getting cold air further south and into systems. it goes back to my whole Canaidan shield theory with ottawa on the S edge of the hinterlands. There is absolutely no snow on the ground here in northeast Scarborough. Total bare ground. It looks like we're heading back to the big temperature gradients between Toronto and Ottawa after a few years of high latitude blocking making areas further north have a greater positive deviation from average. I am coming up to Ottawa for a day on January 4th weather permitting (schedule is tight - not as outlandish as it seems if you're driving from Toronto's east end). Really hoping a snow event on that day doesn't make me have to cancel. I don't mind driving through flurries. There's snow and then there's snow, if you catch my drift. I've always wanted to drive through a huge temperature gradient (minus white out conditions of course). I mean, leaving Toronto with a temperature of, let's say 32F, driving for four hours and getting out of the car to a temperature of 0F would be quite the experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Euro is coming out. @ 24 hours looks more amped up than the previous run and the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 hopefully the final solution is closer to the gfs than it is to the NAM...NAM has over the half the precip as rain in BUF. yeh it only gives us 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 There is absolutely no snow on the ground here in northeast Scarborough. Total bare ground. It looks like we're heading back to the big temperature gradients between Toronto and Ottawa after a few years of high latitude blocking making areas further north have a greater positive deviation from average. I am coming up to Ottawa for a day on January 4th weather permitting (schedule is tight - not as outlandish as it seems if you're driving from Toronto's east end). Really hoping a snow event on that day doesn't make me have to cancel. I don't mind driving through flurries. There's snow and then there's snow, if you catch my drift. I've always wanted to drive through a huge temperature gradient (minus white out conditions of course). I mean, leaving Toronto with a temperature of, let's say 32F, driving for four hours and getting out of the car to a temperature of 0F would be quite the experience. That happened a few years ago in Ottawa if you remember....yow was reporting 33f, while Gatineau was 0f....epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'd say we got closer to 10cms in orleans yesterday.....what a gorgeous day it turned out to be! OL, how are things looking for Tue/Wed? its looking very good for ottawa, latest GFS destroyed ottawa with some very heavy snow tomorrow evening and into overnight.....the jackpot has bypassed CYUL and is now in eastern ontario for that 12-25cm / 5-10inches with an outside shot of higher accums if the storm can deepen quicker, hinted at by the latest GFS. figured that would happen based on a deepning storm in extreme Western new england a couple days ago on the euro, that is always a red flag for potential in ottawa. but the models are still moving westward so until we see some stability, is it possible that portions of eastern ontario + ottawa also mix and cut back on accums? unlikely based on typical setups and climo, but lets await the euro and 18z runs, and i think i'll throw out a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Euro is coming out. @ 24 hours looks more amped up than the previous run and the gfs. 12z GFS? geezus i'm pulling for you guys out in WNY and YYZ though, and YOW of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12z GFS? geezus i'm pulling for you guys out in WNY and YYZ though, and YOW of course not out on wunderground so I can't see the 3 hr stuff...@ 48 hours is just north of NH/ME border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 not out on wunderground so I can't see the 3 hr stuff...@ 48 hours is just north of NH/ME border. Seems similar to the 12z GFS position, perhaps a little East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Sounds like maybe it isn't biting on the American models SYR track.... not out on wunderground so I can't see the 3 hr stuff...@ 48 hours is just north of NH/ME border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Sounds like maybe it isn't biting on the American models SYR track.... @ 48 hours it's in the same position as the 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 comma head looks more developed than the last couple runs it seems, really hangs it back through NYS @48h off ewall...but could be just the intervals fooling me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Special weather statement for: City of Toronto Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent Sarnia - Lambton Elgin London - Middlesex Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand Oxford - Brant Niagara City of Hamilton Halton - Peel York - Durham Huron - Perth Waterloo - Wellington Dufferin - Innisfil Grey - Bruce Barrie - Orillia - Midland Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland Kingston - Prince Edward Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac Bancroft - Bon Echo Park Brockville - Leeds and Grenville City of Ottawa Gatineau Prescott and Russell Cornwall - Morrisburg Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake Parry Sound - Muskoka Haliburton Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay Algonquin Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet. Wet snow or rain Tuesday turning into heavy wet snow for Eastern Ontario Tuesday night. Potential flash freeze for all regions Tuesday night. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==discussion== A developing low over the southern states will track northeast along the Appalachians Tuesday spreading a large area of precipitation Into Southern Ontario. Current indications are that the Precipitation will be a mix of rain and wet snow with temperatures At or just above freezing. More rain than snow is likely for communities along the shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where little if any accumulation is expected. Meanwhile, for remaining regions, a sloppy accumulation of up to 5 cm is likely. This low will rapidly intensify Tuesday night bringing a threat of a heavy snowfall to Eastern Ontario. Snowfall amounts may exceed 15 cm with this system over far Eastern Ontario. A winter storm watch may be issued for portions of Eastern Ontario as the track of the low And heavier snowfall becomes more certain. Another concern with this system is an Arctic cold front that will cross southern and Eastern Ontario Tuesday night. Much colder air behind the front means that temperatures will drop sharply from near zero to well below freezing in a matter of hours. At the same time all of the falling precipitation or residual moisture may quickly freeze on untreated surfaces like roads and sidewalks making for hazardous travelling conditions. Flash freeze warnings may be issued as this event becomes more certain. The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 interesting that Env Canada is going with the flash freeze angle in that special statement. that means they think the cold air is really going to pour into the backside, because they don't issue flash freeze statements just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 From quick inspection on wunderground it looks like the center passes over Queensbury as opposed to the central Adirondacks on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Euro is a bit better developed over NYS than the previous run...has a sub-992mb low just east of BGM. Puts the deformation axis through BUF...looks like about 0.50" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 ECM track.... Hawley, PA to Delhi, NY to Me (Delanson, NY), Ticonderoga, Magog, Quebec City.... I guess it ends up at a similar 48 hour position as the GFS ...the route there is a bit different. Euro is a bit better developed over NYS than the previous run...has a sub-992mb low just east of BGM. Puts the deformation axis through BUF...looks like about 0.50" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 The Euro shows the greatest love for between YUL and YOW, MSS to...Laurentian Auroroute area etc. and thence up toward La Tuque. ECM track.... Hawley, PA to Delhi, NY to Me (Delanson, NY), Ticonderoga, Magog, Quebec City.... I guess it ends up at a similar 48 hour position as the GFS ...the route there is a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 ECM track.... Hawley, PA to Delhi, NY to Me (Delanson, NY), Ticonderoga, Magog, Quebec City.... I guess it ends up at a similar 48 hour position as the GFS ...the route there is a bit different. yeah I see that....it's a bit more developed and further west than the previous run but not as amped up as the NAM or the GFS. The NAM and the GFS both get BUF and ROC into comma head snows whereas the Euro does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 that easterly difference between the euro and the GFS is the difference between the jackpot being near CYOW or near CYUL......ECM keep MTL mostly snow maybe some mix at the height, but the heaviest frozen qpf tomorrow passes along the downtown itself as well as N of the city, but less S of the champlain bridge with more mix concerns on the south burbs. its razor close. i would think you can nudge that a bit NW as per usual with a deepening storm, so as is stands right now i would say heaviest axis of snow to fall east of ottawa but N of montreal, from KMSS/cornwall to hawkesbury, ontario to st. jerome/tremblant QC axis.....based on the 12z runs, i think 8-16 inches /20-40cm of snow is possible in this region if everything breaks right. we'll have to watch for a nudging of that axis in future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 kalb MODELS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM MOVING NORTHEASTINTO THE REGION WILL TRACK WELL INLAND...LIKELY TRACKING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TYPE OF TRACK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. AT BEST AN INCH OR TWO MAY FALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS JUST MENTIONED AFTER THE STORM HAS PASSED AND COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FORECAST IN THE VALLEYS. AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER...SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THERE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE ALY ADIRONDACK ZONES... DECREASING TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SCHOHARIE AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEYS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The Euro shows the greatest love for between YUL and YOW, MSS to...Laurentian Auroroute area etc. and thence up toward La Tuque. yeah we are on the same page here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 If we had any kind of decent antecedent cold air mass in place, track wouldn't be so vital. Everybody would be good for at least a front end thump etc. But the reality is it could be a 75 mile wide swath extending from SSW to NNE that gets a decent snowstorm and nobodys gonna know the exact placement until tomorrow. I'm such a weenie that I enjoy watching this play out even though it's missing me to the west. that easterly difference between the euro and the GFS is the difference between the jackpot being near CYOW or near CYUL......ECM keep MTL mostly snow maybe some mix at the height, but the heaviest frozen qpf tomorrow passes along the downtown itself as well as N of the city, but less S of the champlain bridge with more mix concerns on the south burbs. its razor close. i would think you can nudge that a bit NW as per usual with a deepening storm, so as is stands right now i would say heaviest axis of snow to fall east of ottawa but N of montreal, from KMSS/cornwall to hawkesbury, ontario to st. jerome/tremblant QC axis.....based on the 12z runs, i think 8-16 inches /20-40cm of snow is possible in this region if everything breaks right. we'll have to watch for a nudging of that axis in future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.