ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Anyone have data on the GGEM, CMC, SREF, and the plethora of other models? All in consensus with the NAM, EURO, GFS? Someone posted this in accuweather forums.... "This is looking like a old fasioned Upstate NY blizzard." After looking at the 0z RGEM. Woah!@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 still think SLK is looking good for snow, maybe a mix for some time but the backside is looking pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Ahhh...the true Great White North flexing it's muscle! Congrats, and Merry Christmas! Merry XMas George...hope you and family are doing well. Looks like some semblance of winter starting to show up this week...it will at least be more seasonable temperature wise around SYR.-Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 gfs ensembles look pretty similar to the op...maybe a bit slower...and a touch more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Who's staying up for the Euro? =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Who's staying up for the Euro? =P I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 euro looks similar to the gfs but weaker...so it's not going to be super exciting or anything...but still likely to give WNY some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 euro looks similar to the gfs but weaker...so it's not going to be super exciting or anything...but still likely to give WNY some snow. the 0z ukmet also looks weaker compared to its 12z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 If all we get is a weak POS .... there just won't be much snow with it for anyone until up into Canada.... Like other cases this year (such as 12/22), there just isn't much cold air where the moisture would fall. Unless it bombs and pulls it down like prior runs showed. You guys out west at least seem to be in line for a few inches which is better nothing.... Showery fropa here on the Euro is about it... the 0z ukmet also looks weaker compared to its 12z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Those UKMET maps look likely to yield a better storm for WNY than the Euro does.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 weird that the nam and gfs trended deeper but the euro has continued to back off lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Tough with no h54 map, but the CMC Global takes the nascent low from near BWI to northwest Maine 48 -> 60 hrs. That seems a bit more east I think.... weird that the nam and gfs trended deeper but the euro has continued to back off lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Tough with no h54 map, but the CMC Global takes the nascent low from near BWI to northwest Maine 48 -> 60 hrs. That seems a bit more east I think.... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/GGEM.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Newest NAM has the low deepening around Syracuse! The 6z GFS did nearly identical to the NAM. Here is HPC day 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Really hoping the High Peaks region make out with at least 5-6 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It's too bad the Ottawa airport monthly data summaries are down until further notice. They stopped posting the data after December 15th. Ottawa iso ne of the more accurate snow depth measure sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12 GFS is identical to the NAM, with the low moving over Syracuse. If that is the case WNY should be the winners in this, if it doesn't stay all rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 The trend is definitely looking better for BUF/YYZ area... and no doubt YOW. If I'm getting all rain regardless, you guys might as well cash in out there. It's too bad the Ottawa airport monthly data summaries are down until further notice. They stopped posting the data after December 15th. Ottawa iso ne of the more accurate snow depth measure sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 12 GFS is identical to the NAM, with the low moving over Syracuse. If that is the case WNY should be the winners in this, if it doesn't stay all rain! We can only hope man. This is the best looking set up for the BUF area so far this winter and were now inside 36 hours. Hopefully things stay as they are now. I'd be happy with 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Think the Adirondacks will be a wash out? Looks like the low tracks right across the Adirondack Park. Hoping enough cold air filters in for some good back end snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Think the Adirondacks will be a wash out? Looks like the low tracks right across the Adirondack Park. Hoping enough cold air filters in for some good back end snows. Looks mostly rain for the eastern parts. Near total washout. western and tug hill looks to be snowier, but no one to the right of lake ontario goes all snow i bet by the look of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 WRF run looks great to! Were within 24 hours Devin not 36! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WRFRAD_12z/jloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Barring any further westward trend --- some backside snow still possible from SLK to Old Forge lets say in that trajectory. Areas like Gore to Ticonderoga may not get more than flurries at the end. It could be cold enough up around SLK to start as snow for awhile and then turn to rain and back to snow as it passes by. Think the Adirondacks will be a wash out? Looks like the low tracks right across the Adirondack Park. Hoping enough cold air filters in for some good back end snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I was hoping to snowshoe Street and Nye this week. Yesterday morning it looked like the high peaks would get 12"+. Now it looks like a lot of the precip will be wasted as rain up there to. Really hoping the High Peaks region make out with at least 5-6 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 It certainly is boring when you can't enjoy any winter recreation. About the only thing would be a few skating rinks such as the one at the ESP in ALB. ..Or take a hike ...no snowshoes shoes even needed in the high terrain. I was hoping to snowshoe Street and Nye this week. Yesterday morning it looked like the high peaks would get 12"+. Now it looks like a lot of the precip will be wasted as rain up there to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I still have a feeling if it doesn't wrap around enough, this will be mostly a rain storm except for higher elevations just like the last storm. There is no high pressure system bringing cold air down. Going to be close call though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I was hoping to snowshoe Street and Nye this week. Yesterday morning it looked like the high peaks would get 12"+. Now it looks like a lot of the precip will be wasted as rain up there to. I hiked them last year around this time - there was at least 2ft of snow up there. I'm heading up to the ADKs tonight regardless of the weather. Gonna do some hiking tomorrow and was hoping to ski the whiteface toll road with fresh snow on Wed. Maybe we can get a little Eastward shift (we don't need much) and pull off 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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