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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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looking at the radar and latest trends on the models

gonna bump up

ottawa 1-3 inches / 3-7cm

montreal N and W sections 2-4 inches / 5-10cm

montreal downtown and S sections 3-6 inches / 7-15cm

S of city towards US border 4-8 inches / 10-20cm

good call to Phil earlier today on this being more of a threat than it first looked.

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looking at the radar and latest trends on the models

gonna bump up

ottawa 1-3 inches / 3-7cm

montreal N and W sections 2-4 inches / 5-10cm

montreal downtown and S sections 3-6 inches / 7-15cm

S of city towards US border 4-8 inches / 10-20cm

good call to Phil earlier today on this being more of a threat than it first looked.

there's a fair amount of ice accumulation on tree branches here in Toronto

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It looks like it's changing early next week ..... So might as well just make the best of the next five mild days.

Although today is below normal for daytime highs with only 34F so far and still a lot of ice in the trees. Had a few snow showers as the last few batches of precip. moved through.

No kidding. The snow in Ottawa notwithstanding, this is looking to end up as one of the warmest meteorological Falls ever recorded

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THE SECOND THING TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT HERE TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS...BUT SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...HIGHLIGHTING TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT REGIONS IN A WSW FLOW. :thumbsup:

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THE SECOND THING TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT HERE TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS...BUT SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...HIGHLIGHTING TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT REGIONS IN A WSW FLOW. :thumbsup:

I'll get excited when i see it next week.:whistle:

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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW A CONTINUITY OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME INCLUSION OF COLDER TEMPS FOR MONDAY..MON NGT..AND TUESDAY. WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW OVER RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AS TEMPS TREND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...EVEN A LITTLE BELOW. THE 00Z RUNS OF ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE SHOWING A BIG DIFFERENCE FROM THE GFS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL US ON SUN NGT AND MONDAY. HPC MODEL DIAG REFERS TO THIS AS LOOKING /QUITE DEEP AS ITS 500 HPA STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 5-6 SIGMAS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH IS IMPROBABLE/. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...BUT THERE MAY BE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN OUR FUTURE IF THIS CLOSED SOUTHERN LOW BECOMES A DEEP SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.

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gonna have to keep an eye on that meandering ULL in the middle of the week.

on the whole, appears winter is about to begin in the north country after this current torch ends.

You'll probably see more snow next week. Not sure about Toronto, although I obviously have a slightly higher chance of seeing some than downtown Toronto. Joking aside, it really is amazing how different the winters are in Toronto as opposed to Ottawa given they're only about 450km apart (about a 4 hour, 30 minute drive). Lake Ontario makes all the difference as it really moderates winter down here. Mind you, Torontonians do have a different standard of cold as well. It may be due to the fact that almost 60% of the population of Toronto were not born in Canada, and come from regions where cold and snow are almost unheard of.

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When that happened I was down in FL visiting my sister - who lived near TPA back then. Not sure if that affected areas this far east, but the winter as a whole was pretty abysmal. I'm trying to recall one good snowfall and it is eluding me, but I'm sure we must have had at least one.

It looks like the better part of a week before any normal or below normal wx can finally get in here now. A slow step down over the course of the week as the pattern slowly alters. Maybe from next weekend onwards we can finally get into a winter pattern.....

the one bright spot for you guys in what was for the most part a massive bust of a winter

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When that happened I was down in FL visiting my sister - who lived near TPA back then. Not sure if that affected areas this far east, but the winter as a whole was pretty abysmal. I'm trying to recall one good snowfall and it is eluding me, but I'm sure we must have had at least one.

It looks like the better part of a week before any normal or below normal wx can finally get in here now. A slow step down over the course of the week as the pattern slowly alters. Maybe from next weekend onwards we can finally get into a winter pattern.....

the 12z GFS is absolutely awful for our region, savea few days around December 6th. Interestingly a whole bunch of records from November 2001 were broken in Ontario yesterday

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