ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Im in town with my gf's family who live in western clinton cnty in NE NY.....are we in a good spot for the storm on tueday? They are at about 1400ft elev. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 still would like to see the phase a bit less "sloppy" and really deepen the low quicker over the Mid-Atlantic. The late deepening limits the spread of the comma head to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 still would like to see the phase a bit less "sloppy" and really deepen the low quicker over the Mid-Atlantic. The late deepening limits the spread of the comma head to the west. Doesn't faster deepening usually translate to a coastal low taking all the power from the mainland system and riding it up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Doesn't faster deepening usually translate to a coastal low taking all the power from the mainland system and riding it up the coast? it doesn't appear that there will be a true coastal that develops...the lack of blocking and the tug from the phasing midwest vort max allow the low to shoot up the Apps. Earlier and more complete phase allows the low to track further west...and closes off the mid-level centers faster...allowing more vertical motion and precip into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 it doesn't appear that there will be a true coastal that develops...the lack of blocking and the tug from the phasing midwest vort max allow the low to shoot up the Apps. Earlier and more complete phase allows the low to track further west...and closes off the mid-level centers faster...allowing more vertical motion and precip into the cold air. Oh okay, makes sense. Thanks for all your insight! Learning so much more from this blog. Looking for the 0z NAM to come out. My uncle is flying in from Florida Tuesday, hoping his flight doesn't get delayed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Oh okay, makes sense. Thanks for all your insight! Learning so much more from this blog. Looking for the 0z NAM to come out. My uncle is flying in from Florida Tuesday, hoping his flight doesn't get delayed! no problem. Merry christmas...hope your uncle is able to make it in safe. Let me make a caveat...we obviously don't want it so phased it goes over LON or DTW lol. While still possible, I think that solution is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like it phases right near Albany. Weird path for a storm to take.. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F26%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like it phases right near Albany. Weird path for a storm to take.. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M is that a lake enhancement @60hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like it to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 is that a lake enhancement @60hr? yeah..it's a combination of weak deformation/moisture left-over as the storm passes and NW wind lake-enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 yeah..it's a combination of weak deformation/moisture left-over as the storm passes and NW wind lake-enhancement. I hope it verifies for once lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I hope it verifies for once lol.. It looks alright...I mean that would be an okay event. It would be nice if we could get an earlier phase so that we get into the heavy snows...but beggers can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 It looks alright...I mean that would be an okay event. It would be nice if we could get an earlier phase so that we get into the heavy snows...but beggers can't be choosers. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Very unusual but not completely unheard of. Maybe I'll get to see the big "L" pass over my house. In any case, I won't even need to root for dryslotting as there's no snowpack to protect. I hope someone here in NYS gets a decent storm out of this. Looks like somewhere between Rochester and Syracuse, up to Watertown is the place to be for this. Looks like it phases right near Albany. Weird path for a storm to take.. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 00z NAM would basically equate to a long duration 3-6" snow. I mentioned in the New England thread that one thing this event seems to have going for it is the boundary layer is not torched at the onset of precip...in fact the NAM starts off as snow in the mid-30s. The boundary layer is dry...so melting and evaporational cooling would be much more effective than the very moist 1-1.5km +2c to +3c that we had during this last event that changed over to snow at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 00z NAM would basically equate to a long duration 3-6" snow. I mentioned in the New England thread that one thing this event seems to have going for it is the boundary layer is not torched at the onset of precip...in fact the NAM starts off as snow in the mid-30s. The boundary layer is dry...so melting and evaporational cooling would be much more effective than the very moist 1-1.5km +2c to +3c that we had during this last event that changed over to snow at the very end. Do you think the jackpot is going to be around Syracuse? If so, what do you think max snowfall amounts would be? With the Tug Hill enhancement, do you think they will pick up close to a foot? If this thing ramps up faster then projected we could be looking at a tad more in WNY area. How many degrees will the evaporational cooling cause the temp to drop? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 i hope you guys out in WNY get something good out of this. i think the max snow looks like 6-12 in north CNY and southern canada but maybe up to 18 inches in the dacks and some higher elevations? problem is the storm gets cranking a bit too late for S CNY/WNY and a touch late for eastern ontario but 3-7 could still be possible based on early guidance. still a ways to go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 i'm also wary of the dreaded bl temps. that 3-7 could be less if the cold air doesnt get in fast enough, and some of the models have hinted at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Do you think the jackpot is going to be around Syracuse? If so, what do you think max snowfall amounts would be? With the Tug Hill enhancement, do you think they will pick up close to a foot? If this thing ramps up faster then projected we could be looking at a tad more in WNY area. How many degrees will the evaporational cooling cause the temp to drop? Thanks! The jackpot is more likely to be near Watertown or MSS than Syracuse. It all depends on the phasing. The NAM would hit the area near MSS the hardest imo for anyone in the US. There is no hard and fast way to guess how much evaporational cooling will be cool the boundary layer...but generally it tends to cool close to freezing and then stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The jackpot is more likely to be near Watertown or MSS than Syracuse. It all depends on the phasing. The NAM would hit the area near MSS the hardest imo for anyone in the US. There is no hard and fast way to guess how much evaporational cooling will be cool the boundary layer...but generally it tends to cool close to freezing and then stop. i've always wondered why that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 i've always wondered why that is? at the very least you lose the cooling due to melting at 32 degrees so that probably has something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 gfs is so close to being a big event for WNY. Closes the 700mb low over Rome. Pretty favorable developments tonight overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like GFS is a tad more east then the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Looks like GFS is a tad more east then the last run. it's actually better overall. The midwest trough digging into the back of the storm causes the storm to deepen quicker...closes off a 700mb low over Rome...which definitely is earlier than before. Look at how the precip spread a bit further west from the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 it's actually better overall. The midwest trough digging into the back of the storm causes the storm to deepen quicker...closes off a 700mb low over Rome...which definitely is earlier than before. Look at how the precip spread a bit further west from the low. Cant wait what the euro has to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I'm hoping Markham and Toronto get something out of this, even if it's just 2". Ottawa and Montreal look set to cash in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Anyone have data on the GGEM, CMC, SREF, and the plethora of other models? All in consensus with the NAM, EURO, GFS? Someone posted this in accuweather forums.... "This is looking like a old fasioned Upstate NY blizzard." After looking at the 0z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The 0z NAM doesn't look good for Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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