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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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still would like to see the phase a bit less "sloppy" and really deepen the low quicker over the Mid-Atlantic. The late deepening limits the spread of the comma head to the west.

Doesn't faster deepening usually translate to a coastal low taking all the power from the mainland system and riding it up the coast?

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Doesn't faster deepening usually translate to a coastal low taking all the power from the mainland system and riding it up the coast?

it doesn't appear that there will be a true coastal that develops...the lack of blocking and the tug from the phasing midwest vort max allow the low to shoot up the Apps. Earlier and more complete phase allows the low to track further west...and closes off the mid-level centers faster...allowing more vertical motion and precip into the cold air.

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it doesn't appear that there will be a true coastal that develops...the lack of blocking and the tug from the phasing midwest vort max allow the low to shoot up the Apps. Earlier and more complete phase allows the low to track further west...and closes off the mid-level centers faster...allowing more vertical motion and precip into the cold air.

Oh okay, makes sense. Thanks for all your insight! Learning so much more from this blog. Looking for the 0z NAM to come out. My uncle is flying in from Florida Tuesday, hoping his flight doesn't get delayed!

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Oh okay, makes sense. Thanks for all your insight! Learning so much more from this blog. Looking for the 0z NAM to come out. My uncle is flying in from Florida Tuesday, hoping his flight doesn't get delayed!

no problem. Merry christmas...hope your uncle is able to make it in safe. Let me make a caveat...we obviously don't want it so phased it goes over LON or DTW lol. While still possible, I think that solution is pretty unlikely.

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Very unusual but not completely unheard of. Maybe I'll get to see the big "L" pass over my house. :lol: In any case, I won't even need to root for dryslotting as there's no snowpack to protect. I hope someone here in NYS gets a decent storm out of this. Looks like somewhere between Rochester and Syracuse, up to Watertown is the place to be for this.

Looks like it phases right near Albany. Weird path for a storm to take..

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

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00z NAM would basically equate to a long duration 3-6" snow. I mentioned in the New England thread that one thing this event seems to have going for it is the boundary layer is not torched at the onset of precip...in fact the NAM starts off as snow in the mid-30s. The boundary layer is dry...so melting and evaporational cooling would be much more effective than the very moist 1-1.5km +2c to +3c that we had during this last event that changed over to snow at the very end.

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00z NAM would basically equate to a long duration 3-6" snow. I mentioned in the New England thread that one thing this event seems to have going for it is the boundary layer is not torched at the onset of precip...in fact the NAM starts off as snow in the mid-30s. The boundary layer is dry...so melting and evaporational cooling would be much more effective than the very moist 1-1.5km +2c to +3c that we had during this last event that changed over to snow at the very end.

Do you think the jackpot is going to be around Syracuse? If so, what do you think max snowfall amounts would be? With the Tug Hill enhancement, do you think they will pick up close to a foot? If this thing ramps up faster then projected we could be looking at a tad more in WNY area. How many degrees will the evaporational cooling cause the temp to drop?

Thanks!

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i hope you guys out in WNY get something good out of this.

i think the max snow looks like 6-12 in north CNY and southern canada but maybe up to 18 inches in the dacks and some higher elevations?

problem is the storm gets cranking a bit too late for S CNY/WNY and a touch late for eastern ontario but 3-7 could still be possible based on early guidance.

still a ways to go here.

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Do you think the jackpot is going to be around Syracuse? If so, what do you think max snowfall amounts would be? With the Tug Hill enhancement, do you think they will pick up close to a foot? If this thing ramps up faster then projected we could be looking at a tad more in WNY area. How many degrees will the evaporational cooling cause the temp to drop?

Thanks!

The jackpot is more likely to be near Watertown or MSS than Syracuse. It all depends on the phasing. The NAM would hit the area near MSS the hardest imo for anyone in the US.

There is no hard and fast way to guess how much evaporational cooling will be cool the boundary layer...but generally it tends to cool close to freezing and then stop.

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The jackpot is more likely to be near Watertown or MSS than Syracuse. It all depends on the phasing. The NAM would hit the area near MSS the hardest imo for anyone in the US.

There is no hard and fast way to guess how much evaporational cooling will be cool the boundary layer...but generally it tends to cool close to freezing and then stop.

i've always wondered why that is?

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Looks like GFS is a tad more east then the last run.

it's actually better overall. The midwest trough digging into the back of the storm causes the storm to deepen quicker...closes off a 700mb low over Rome...which definitely is earlier than before. Look at how the precip spread a bit further west from the low.

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it's actually better overall. The midwest trough digging into the back of the storm causes the storm to deepen quicker...closes off a 700mb low over Rome...which definitely is earlier than before. Look at how the precip spread a bit further west from the low.

Cant wait what the euro has to say!

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