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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Euro crushes SYR....

Euro fantasy snowfall maps...13" in SYR

2" here at the end as tapers as snow and this winter I'd take even that. LOL ...very possibly true given how good the ECM is at 72 hrs, but we'll await the ensembles.

is that snowfall map even accurate? it always shows less than what the model is showing..

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The back end snow is more believable. Given the boundary level problems we had last time I'd be pretty wary of counting on front end stuff as far east as UCA. But it's all academic because we are analyzing one run of one model....

Wunderground free maps show a major hit around ksyr.. Kuca does good also but temps warm enough to mix..Good front end and back end(according to wunderground)

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The last storm had the 850 line hundreds of miles southeast of Buffalo and it took a nearly perfect path for snow. Yet we got .75 inches of cold rain and no snow. Surface temperatures still look to warm on Tuesday, and I think we will be dealing with another cold rain to a few flakes event. Its showing up in the Canadian model that way at least, as Ayudd brought out.

The NAM seems to be all over the place with the storm, the 6z NAM gave Buffalo nothing, the 12z is giving us light snow. Thanks for the accuracy of all those models OSU, is there a website to check those out on a regular basis?

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The last storm had the 850 line hundreds of miles southeast of Buffalo and it took a nearly perfect path for snow. Yet we got .75 inches of cold rain and no snow. Surface temperatures still look to warm on Tuesday, and I think we will be dealing with another cold rain to a few flakes event. Its showing up in the Canadian model that way at least, as Ayudd brought out.

The NAM seems to be all over the place with the storm, the 6z NAM gave Buffalo nothing, the 12z is giving us light snow. Thanks for the accuracy of all those models OSU, is there a website to check those out on a regular basis?

Actually Colden was the only one who saw close to. 75" of rain with that system at. 62" .. Hamburg had. 41" and I had even less in Cheektowaga.
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It was an estimate Devin. I don't measure rain, to boring. It was to just bring out a point of 850 temps being far below that crucial 0 mark, yet we didn't get any snow. Surface temperatures were just to warm I guess.

GFS is again, 100-150 miles west with the 850 line going through central New York. The flip/flops continue!

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Will be spending Dec. 26 - Jan. 2 up in Redfield. The storm track looks great for a big storm for the Tug... sure wish there was more cold air to work with though. Latest GFS probably has rain to snow with still several inches of accumulation, but could be much better if we could get a little more cold air to drag down into the storm. At least something to track. Much further west, and we probably get more rain while you guys in BUF get into more of the action.

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The 0Z Euro absolutely flattened Redfield with the "real snow" ..then I'm sure the "fake snow" to follow....

Will be spending Dec. 26 - Jan. 2 up in Redfield. The storm track looks great for a big storm for the Tug... sure wish there was more cold air to work with though. Latest GFS probably has rain to snow with still several inches of accumulation, but could be much better if we could get a little more cold air to drag down into the storm. At least something to track. Much further west, and we probably get more rain while you guys in BUF get into more of the action.

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The last storm had the 850 line hundreds of miles southeast of Buffalo and it took a nearly perfect path for snow. Yet we got .75 inches of cold rain and no snow. Surface temperatures still look to warm on Tuesday, and I think we will be dealing with another cold rain to a few flakes event. Its showing up in the Canadian model that way at least, as Ayudd brought out.

The NAM seems to be all over the place with the storm, the 6z NAM gave Buffalo nothing, the 12z is giving us light snow. Thanks for the accuracy of all those models OSU, is there a website to check those out on a regular basis?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

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in the first week of january, i will be moving 50 miles south to just N of BTV, vermont.

i will still contiune to post in this forum naturally, and definitely will keep posting about the weather in southern canada, especially as my parents reside in ottawa and so i will still be spending plenty of time there....

what this does mean is that it willl be easier for me to participate in a GTG if we ever get everyone together

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NWS seems to forecast a general moderate snowfall once the changeover occurs within the deformation zone over most of New York State!

AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE WILL INCREASE.

THIS WILL DELIVER A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIRMASS INTO OUR

REGION...RESULTING IN ANY PRECIP CHANGING OVER FROM RAIN TO ALL

SNOW. THE ISSUE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND

SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SNOW

ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT EXITS THE REGION. WHERE

THERE HAD BEEN GREATER DIFFERENCES AND DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE

VARIOUS MODELS...THE 12Z RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL SHOWING A

WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH OF RESPECTABLE MERIDIONAL AMPLITUDE BUT DO

DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWS...BUT ALL

SFC LOWS WILL BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A TRAILING COLD

DEFORMATION ZONE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. I WILL

KEEP WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND EXPECT THERE TO BE A FAIR

AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

STATE...FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND

TUG HILL FOR OUR AREA OF CONCERN.

Also HPC day 3:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif

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