ayuud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I'd say the 0Z GGEM (CMC) most closely resembles the last Euro with the track/evolution. That model always runs a little warmer than the rest with 850 line, etc., but interms of the track.....VA to PWM and out.... Warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 yea ggem at times is over amped and def to warm at times.. foreign models cut the storm inland, american models a good deal south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 0z euro that track looks perfect for a nice snowstorm for buffalo,hope it verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 that track looks perfect for a nice snowstorm for buffalo,hope it verifies! believe it or not..it needs to close off sooner for BUF to get into the good stuff. The real heavy banding develops over Ithaca to Watertown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Wunderground free maps show a major hit around ksyr.. Kuca does good also but temps warm enough to mix..Good front end and back end(according to wunderground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 believe it or not..it needs to close off sooner for BUF to get into the good stuff. The real heavy banding develops over Ithaca to Watertown. at least it's not showing the gfs solution lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Wunderground free maps show a major hit around ksyr.. Kuca does good also but temps warm enough to mix..Good front end and back end(according to wunderground) is that snowfall map even accurate? it always shows less than what the model is showing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Euro crushes SYR.... Euro fantasy snowfall maps...13" in SYR 2" here at the end as tapers as snow and this winter I'd take even that. LOL ...very possibly true given how good the ECM is at 72 hrs, but we'll await the ensembles. is that snowfall map even accurate? it always shows less than what the model is showing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 The back end snow is more believable. Given the boundary level problems we had last time I'd be pretty wary of counting on front end stuff as far east as UCA. But it's all academic because we are analyzing one run of one model.... Wunderground free maps show a major hit around ksyr.. Kuca does good also but temps warm enough to mix..Good front end and back end(according to wunderground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Hoping the tug gets this upcoming storm. Need my sled fix soon. I fixed my outside thermometer yesterday and it was 14° at 8:00 last night and warmed to 23° this morning. Santa must have brought the hot air with him. Merry Christmas all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 What a gorgeous morning here in Ottawa! Light steady snow falling, frigid temps....ahhhh Merry Christmas all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 What a gorgeous morning here in Ottawa! Light steady snow falling, frigid temps....ahhhh Merry Christmas all!!! Ahhh...the true Great White North flexing it's muscle! Congrats, and Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Nothing says Christmas morning in Buffalo like green grass (greener then it was all summer) and 34 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The last storm had the 850 line hundreds of miles southeast of Buffalo and it took a nearly perfect path for snow. Yet we got .75 inches of cold rain and no snow. Surface temperatures still look to warm on Tuesday, and I think we will be dealing with another cold rain to a few flakes event. Its showing up in the Canadian model that way at least, as Ayudd brought out. The NAM seems to be all over the place with the storm, the 6z NAM gave Buffalo nothing, the 12z is giving us light snow. Thanks for the accuracy of all those models OSU, is there a website to check those out on a regular basis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The last storm had the 850 line hundreds of miles southeast of Buffalo and it took a nearly perfect path for snow. Yet we got .75 inches of cold rain and no snow. Surface temperatures still look to warm on Tuesday, and I think we will be dealing with another cold rain to a few flakes event. Its showing up in the Canadian model that way at least, as Ayudd brought out. The NAM seems to be all over the place with the storm, the 6z NAM gave Buffalo nothing, the 12z is giving us light snow. Thanks for the accuracy of all those models OSU, is there a website to check those out on a regular basis? Actually Colden was the only one who saw close to. 75" of rain with that system at. 62" .. Hamburg had. 41" and I had even less in Cheektowaga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 we had a dusting overnight, white xmas! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 It was an estimate Devin. I don't measure rain, to boring. It was to just bring out a point of 850 temps being far below that crucial 0 mark, yet we didn't get any snow. Surface temperatures were just to warm I guess. GFS is again, 100-150 miles west with the 850 line going through central New York. The flip/flops continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 so close yet so far away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 latest GFS caves to the euro/ukie, really hammers the Dacks, ART-SLK over to CYUL CNY and over to ottawa also get in on the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Will be spending Dec. 26 - Jan. 2 up in Redfield. The storm track looks great for a big storm for the Tug... sure wish there was more cold air to work with though. Latest GFS probably has rain to snow with still several inches of accumulation, but could be much better if we could get a little more cold air to drag down into the storm. At least something to track. Much further west, and we probably get more rain while you guys in BUF get into more of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 The 0Z Euro absolutely flattened Redfield with the "real snow" ..then I'm sure the "fake snow" to follow.... Will be spending Dec. 26 - Jan. 2 up in Redfield. The storm track looks great for a big storm for the Tug... sure wish there was more cold air to work with though. Latest GFS probably has rain to snow with still several inches of accumulation, but could be much better if we could get a little more cold air to drag down into the storm. At least something to track. Much further west, and we probably get more rain while you guys in BUF get into more of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The last storm had the 850 line hundreds of miles southeast of Buffalo and it took a nearly perfect path for snow. Yet we got .75 inches of cold rain and no snow. Surface temperatures still look to warm on Tuesday, and I think we will be dealing with another cold rain to a few flakes event. Its showing up in the Canadian model that way at least, as Ayudd brought out. The NAM seems to be all over the place with the storm, the 6z NAM gave Buffalo nothing, the 12z is giving us light snow. Thanks for the accuracy of all those models OSU, is there a website to check those out on a regular basis? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 any updates on the 12z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 sure looks to me like the euro is even further west now but a bit slower to deepen, it looks like it could dryslot eastern NY and up into montreal even i only have free maps but it looks like ottawa to SYR maybe down through BGM as the jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 in the first week of january, i will be moving 50 miles south to just N of BTV, vermont. i will still contiune to post in this forum naturally, and definitely will keep posting about the weather in southern canada, especially as my parents reside in ottawa and so i will still be spending plenty of time there.... what this does mean is that it willl be easier for me to participate in a GTG if we ever get everyone together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 NWS seems to forecast a general moderate snowfall once the changeover occurs within the deformation zone over most of New York State! AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION ON ITS BACKSIDE WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL DELIVER A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION...RESULTING IN ANY PRECIP CHANGING OVER FROM RAIN TO ALL SNOW. THE ISSUE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT EXITS THE REGION. WHERE THERE HAD BEEN GREATER DIFFERENCES AND DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...THE 12Z RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH OF RESPECTABLE MERIDIONAL AMPLITUDE BUT DO DIFFER ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOWS...BUT ALL SFC LOWS WILL BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A TRAILING COLD DEFORMATION ZONE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. I WILL KEEP WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND EXPECT THERE TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...FROM THE FINGER LAKES TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND TUG HILL FOR OUR AREA OF CONCERN. Also HPC day 3: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 18Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18Z GFS: buf gets about 3-4",ill take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 YUL gets destroyed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Still a rainout? I have been trying to follow on an iPod. The maps are real small and I cannot enlarge them with it. Spelling may be worse than usual… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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