CNYWxGuy Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 going off free maps, euro looks like it would be a monster storm for CNY/ NE NY and southern canada Sure does. Storm solutions like the 12z tempt me to renew the storm vista subscription so can get the inside details on Euro runs again. Hmmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Have you tried the wunderground euro maps. They're pretty awesome....and free. They come out quick and even give you precip and some nice clown snow maps. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 You have to change the model to ECMWF, since GFS is the default. Sure does. Storm solutions like the 12z tempt me to renew the storm vista subscription so can get the inside details on Euro runs again. Hmmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Just for kicks regarding 12z Euro... 2nd-hand source told me the following as rough estimates... SLK- 1.4 qpf / all snow ALB- 1.25 qpf / .45 falling as snow UCA- 1.0 qpf / all snow BGM- .90 qpf / mainly snow... possibly some rain to start. SYR- .70 qpf / all snow BUF- .25 qpf / all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Thanks for the info. I guess it's a good compromise for Upstate locals. Looks like if ALB gets all snow then BUF will be too far west and get zippo, and if it's too far west ALB will get mostly rain and BUF will get hammered. With this track at least we all get something. Another storm to track...oy vey! Looks like it all hinges on the timing of the northern and southern branches. Expect lots of model flip flopping on this one. I hope the DAK's get creamed. Dying to climb some peaks with snow and not lots of ice. Just for kicks regarding 12z Euro... 2nd-hand source told me the following as rough estimates... SLK- 1.4 qpf / all snow ALB- 1.25 qpf / .45 falling as snow UCA- 1.0 qpf / all snow BGM- .90 qpf / mainly snow... possibly some rain to start. BUF- .25 qpf / all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Thanks for the info. I guess it's a good compromise for Upstate locals. Looks like if ALB gets all snow then BUF will be too far west and get zippo, and if it's too far west ALB will get mostly rain and BUF will get hammered. With this track at least we all get something. Another storm to track...oy vey! Looks like it all hinges on the timing of the northern and southern branches. Expect lots of model flip flopping on this one. I hope the DAK's get creamed. Dying to climb some peaks with snow and not lots of ice. Forgot to add... SYR - .70 qpf / all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Thanks for the info. I guess it's a good compromise for Upstate locals. Looks like if ALB gets all snow then BUF will be too far west and get zippo, and if it's too far west ALB will get mostly rain and BUF will get hammered. With this track at least we all get something. Another storm to track...oy vey! Looks like it all hinges on the timing of the northern and southern branches. Expect lots of model flip flopping on this one. I hope the DAK's get creamed. Dying to climb some peaks with snow and not lots of ice. would be sweet from west mountain to gore to whiteface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I agree and the DAKS need the snow bad. All I can tell from the UKMET is it that it takes a 1002 mb low from north central Tenn to a 980mb low over central Maine at 96 hours. Sort of similar to Euro, just starts the low further NW. Almost a bomb (22mb/24hours). After the last storm I'd still rather have the models further east right now to allow for a trend NW. would be sweet from west mountain to gore to whiteface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I agree and the DAKS need the snow bad. All I can tell from the UKMET is it that it takes a 1002 mb low from north central Tenn to a 980mb low over central Maine at 96 hours. Sort of similar to Euro, just starts the low further NW. Almost a bomb (22mb/24hours). After the last storm I'd still rather have the models further east right now to allow for a trend NW. A bomb will wrap the cold air into the storm a lot better than this last storm, it would def put some good snows on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I'd still rather see a track over western Long Island and then up over Boston to just off the coast in Maine. If it tracks to close to NYC, we almost always miss the def band to the NW. The DAKS would get crushed though. Any more west than the 12Z Euro shows and Alb gets almost all rain. A bomb will wrap the cold air into the storm a lot better than this last storm, it would def put some good snows on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 For some reason I couldn't connect to this BB for most of the afternoon. The Euro fantasy snowfall maps (cumulative added up) had 12" here with the storm. It was snow to rain or mix, back to a pounding heavy snow. Now of course those same maps had 5 inches for here on Thursday at 12Z. LOL and the truth was a T. Thanks for the info. I guess it's a good compromise for Upstate locals. Looks like if ALB gets all snow then BUF will be too far west and get zippo, and if it's too far west ALB will get mostly rain and BUF will get hammered. With this track at least we all get something. Another storm to track...oy vey! Looks like it all hinges on the timing of the northern and southern branches. Expect lots of model flip flopping on this one. I hope the DAK's get creamed. Dying to climb some peaks with snow and not lots of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 FWIW the 18z nam had 9" for buf on this upcoming storm,would be cool IF it was right for once.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 in ottawa for xmas eve, just got in from an evening walk, man they really pulled out a miracle this yr with the thin snow blanket yesterday but the frigid temps which have kept the snow plastered to everything and all surfaces covered + got that nice snow crunch on my walk due to the cold, but man it was freeeeezing arctic wonderland out there! merry christmas to all and may a storm be just around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 FWIW the 18z nam had 9" for buf on this upcoming storm,would be cool IF it was right for once.. I had to go look for myself...looking at ncep I thought the vast majority of that was rain. It appears that even with low-level winds out of the SW the boundary layer is so dry that the precip actually starts off as accumulating snow. We'll see...I don't have high hopes...I still think we're dealing with similar issues to this past system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Pleasantly frigid here also, albeit snow-less.. 11F currently. in ottawa for xmas eve, just got in from an evening walk, man they really pulled out a miracle this yr with the thin snow blanket yesterday but the frigid temps which have kept the snow plastered to everything and all surfaces covered + got that nice snow crunch on my walk due to the cold, but man it was freeeeezing arctic wonderland out there! merry christmas to all and may a storm be just around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 FWIW the 18z nam had 9" for buf on this upcoming storm,would be cool IF it was right for once.. 00z NAM wants to do the same. I'm SURE it wont happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Can't wait what the other models have to say tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I kind of don't want to see a snowstorm like the NAM. If this month is going to be so awful, we might as well go for record awfulness. Right now we're set to have the least snowy December and this would ruin it. But I suppose, if we have to have snow, I can put up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I kind of don't want to see a snowstorm like the NAM. If this month is going to be so awful, we might as well go for record awfulness. Right now we're set to have the least snowy December and this would ruin it. But I suppose, if we have to have snow, I can put up with it. I feel the exact same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 GFS has storm well southeast of WNY area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 GFS has storm well southeast of WNY area. Lets see what the euro has to say.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 From my ENY perspective, I like the GFS suppressed at this stage. Chances are the Euro is more hyped. GFS has storm well southeast of WNY area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 From my ENY perspective, I like the GFS suppressed at this stage. Chances are the Euro is more hyped. From a storm perspective for WNY...I think we need a more well-developed storm at our longitude. This could be accomplished by an earlier phase or a juicer southern stream. The antecedent airmass is going to suck balls...so we need the airmass to cool rapidly through strong vertical motion, evaporation/melting and stronger low-level ageostrophic flow. An open wave at 850mb probably won't be enough imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Why is the GFS so bad at predicting storms compared to Euro OSU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry xmas everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Why is the GFS so bad at predicting storms compared to Euro OSU? the gfs was actually more right than the euro with the past storm in New England. But it's a better model, which is mostly due to it's superior 4DVAR initialization. Since it's funded privately, they actually have much more money to work with and computing power...hence the superior resolution...and the superior ensembles. The EC ensemble, which has 51 members, has the same resolution as the operational gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The GFS has had a very bad stretch the past month. It usually is third...just behind the UKMET and the ECMWF. The CMC is actually beating it over the past 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 0z uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 I'd say the 0Z GGEM (CMC) most closely resembles the last Euro with the track/evolution. That model always runs a little warmer than the rest with 850 line, etc., but interms of the track.....VA to PWM and out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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