Ellinwood Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Saw up to 2" on the hilltops in Cortland and Onondaga counties on my drive up I-81 today... nada on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Ithaca is up to a whopping 0.7in for the season. I can't seem to locate any link for historical snow amounts to look for records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Ithaca is up to a whopping 0.7in for the season. I can't seem to locate any link for historical snow amounts to look for records. This may help: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/bgm/cli/coop/ITHN6.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Ithaca is up to a whopping 0.7in for the season. I can't seem to locate any link for historical snow amounts to look for records. http://www.nrcc.corn...climate/ithaca/ Its happened before, trust me I know....lol How is wysocki doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Did a little research in regard to the Climatology talk at the bottom of the latest NWS forecast Discussion. It brings out: .CLIMATE… WITH THE WET SNOW FAILING TO STICK IN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER EARLY THIS MORNING…BOTH CITIES ARE VIRTUALLY A66URED OF A SNOW-LESS CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. IN FACT…THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE WHITE GROUND CHRISTMAS MORNING ARE THE HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO…BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS JUST A MINOR COATING MAY REMAIN. THE WINTER OF 2011-12 HAS STARTED AT A RECORD SLOW PACE IN THE SNOWFALL CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH DECEMBER 22ND…THE CURRENT SNOW THIS SEASON OF 3.0 INCHES (BUFFALO) AND 2.5 INCHES (ROCHESTER) ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL THUS FAR. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL YEARS THAT HAVE HAD SIMILAR STARTS THOUGH. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IN BOTH CITIES IN PREVIOUS YEARS ON RECORD…MEASURED AT THE RESPECTIVE AIRPORTS…THROUGH AND INCLUDING CHRISTMAS EVE. BUFFALO 1 3.0 2011 2 3.1 1998 3 3.3 1931 4 3.6 1896 5 4.3 1918 … 10 6.5 1888 … 15 7.8 1891 ***NORMAL THROUGH DECEMBER 24TH 29.1*** The 1998-1999 year ended with 100.5 inches of snow at KBUF. With 65.1 inches falling in January of 1999. The 1931, 1896, 1918, 1891, 1888 years I could not find much research with, but I believe the recording station was on the lake front, so hard to include that within this record. Hard to go by one year, but shows the possibility of lake Erie being at 42 degrees in what is persistently the coldest month in KBUFs history. Buffalo got hit with several large LES snow events during that month of January. Here is the link for some detail: http://www.erh.noaa....fect/98-99.html Ahh so your Richard from the WIVB blog...nice to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Snow Gods are with me! Snowing lightly out...and has been for a couple hours....I just got home from some last minute shopping, and roads are not great (some flash freezing with snow on top). Ground is covered (with a few high blades sticking through)...maybe 3/4" to an inch in spots....and the lake is still spittin'! Hope to keep it over the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Snow Gods are with me! Snowing lightly out...and has been for a couple hours....I just got home from some last minute shopping, and roads are not great (some flash freezing with snow on top). Ground is covered (with a few high blades sticking through)...maybe 3/4" to an inch in spots....and the lake is still spittin'! Hope to keep it over the next 36 hours. Congrats! Some mood flakes can always help ease the pain. We had a few flakes around 5pm...actually, more like snow grains. Only lasted a few minutes, but strangely it did help my mood a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Similar flurries here off and on since afternoon -whitened my car roof a little. Saw some flurries when I was over at Crossgates Mall earlier this evening and it made for a better Xmas mood. 25 now.... Looks like someone on this thread will see a moderate snowfall (i.e. 3 inches plus) out of the low next Tuesday. I think I can say that because after all this thread extends 250+ miles from west to east. The thing could trend well west and still affect someone on here. Congrats! Some mood flakes can always help ease the pain. We had a few flakes around 5pm...actually, more like snow grains. Only lasted a few minutes, but strangely it did help my mood a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I'll say BUF lands up with a flurry more than a dusting from Tuesdays event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 At least something to track next week. Tuesday is looking more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Don't be fooled. Boundary layer will torch and we'll all get rain. (low expectations = low disappointment). I hope you're right though. Similar flurries here off and on since afternoon -whitened my car roof a little. Saw some flurries when I was over at Crossgates Mall earlier this evening and it made for a better Xmas mood. 25 now.... Looks like someone on this thread will see a moderate snowfall (i.e. 3 inches plus) out of the low next Tuesday. I think I can say that because after all this thread extends 250+ miles from west to east. The thing could trend well west and still affect someone on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 By some miracle we got 0.7" of snow last night. So if today does not warm up too much, we'll have a somewhat white Christmas. We're still in line to have the least snowy December on record, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 6F in ottawa with that 1 inch blanket firmly in place. some light snow expected tomorrow, all in all perfect timing these 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 12Z GFS lures us in like an evil temptress. Gives Alb about 1.3QPF.....looks like all snow. I won't be fooled again...darn it! Nice confluent flow locks the cold air in. Southern wave ejects out of SW much slower allowing for the northern branch to lock some cold air in. Looks like a good setup.........but I refuse to get excited yet. NAM looks much warmer and further north (closer to last nights euro) with the cold arriving after the precip pulls out so take the GFS with a grain of salt. It's still fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I dislike the GFS, the Euro is such a superior model. No snow here, 26 and sunny out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I agree that the Euro has defiitely outperformed the GFS, but the main variable with the mid-week storm will be when the cutoff low ejects out of the SW. I think that the models will be flip-flopping (esp the GFS) over the next few days. It will be interesting to see what the Euro does today since it usually holds the lows in the SW too long and I think that's what we need to allow the cold some time to filter in. I dislike the GFS, the Euro is such a superior model. No snow here, 26 and sunny out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 24, 2011 Author Share Posted December 24, 2011 Well the GFS beat the Euro by one or two runs in giving up on the phasing idea for the Xmas night/Boxing Day non-storm. Maybe the blind squirrel will be onto something this time first again. We can hope! Hey I'm so desperate that a compromise with maybe 3 or 4 inches of snow after rain...would be thrilling. 12Z GFS lures us in like an evil temptress. Gives Alb about 1.3QPF.....looks like all snow. I won't be fooled again...darn it! Nice confluent flow locks the cold air in. Southern wave ejects out of SW much slower allowing for the northern branch to lock some cold air in. Looks like a good setup.........but I refuse to get excited yet. NAM looks much warmer and further north (closer to last nights euro) with the cold arriving after the precip pulls out so take the GFS with a grain of salt. It's still fun to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I agree that the Euro has defiitely outperformed the GFS, but the main variable with the mid-week storm will be when the cutoff low ejects out of the SW. I think that the models will be flip-flopping (esp the GFS) over the next few days. It will be interesting to see what the Euro does today since it usually holds the lows in the SW too long and I think that's what we need to allow the cold some time to filter in. Buffalo NWS talks abou that storm...Saying it will be similar track to the rainstorm we just had. Just not enough cold air needed to generate snow, all rain! WHILE WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH STEADY SLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUR AIRMASS APPEARS AS IF IT SHOULD EASILY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ANY TRANSITION TO SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE PRECIP IS TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH LIKE WE JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO MINIMAL VALUES...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLING IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Buffalo NWS talks abou that storm...Saying it will be similar track to the rainstorm we just had. Just not enough cold air needed to generate snow, all rain! WHILE WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH STEADY SLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUR AIRMASS APPEARS AS IF IT SHOULD EASILY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ANY TRANSITION TO SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE PRECIP IS TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH LIKE WE JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO MINIMAL VALUES...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLING IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. Im gonna go out on a limb and say KBUF wont see its 4"+ snowfall untill Jan 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 They just hadn't seen the 12Z GFS yet Buffalo NWS talks abou that storm...Saying it will be similar track to the rainstorm we just had. Just not enough cold air needed to generate snow, all rain! WHILE WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH STEADY SLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUR AIRMASS APPEARS AS IF IT SHOULD EASILY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ANY TRANSITION TO SNOW HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE PRECIP IS TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH LIKE WE JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HOLD ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO MINIMAL VALUES...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLING IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Every once in while the blind squirrel gets the big nut. I'll take a dusting at this point....just wanna see any snow fall. Well the GFS beat the Euro by one or two runs in giving up on the phasing idea for the Xmas night/Boxing Day non-storm. Maybe the blind squirrel will be onto something this time first again. We can hope! Hey I'm so desperate that a compromise with maybe 3 or 4 inches of snow after rain...would be thrilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I've already spent too much time on this threat, but here's some more nice quotes from the NE forum....some good mets over there. not much. depends on where in NE you are. in a lot of ways...this is the same old story with a lousy antecedent air mass, trying to time in cold air prior/during precip arrival, and a southern stream system ejecting out into and then over the higher heights parked east of FL. having the northern stream fighting back some now is helpful...but it's got a lot of work to do to make this better for SNE. for the northern folks, it's helpful. ` I think the one thing going for us is that this storm is going to depend on the timing of that northern stream s/w. The faster it is (or slower the southern stream s/w is) the more confluence over S Quebec and the better chance this thing doesn't cut well NW and the better chance that there is a decent source of cold to the north. I'm not sure what all the anti-hype about the storm is about. If the timing is screwed up sure it could suck but for a large chunk of NNE this is the most promising synoptic setup in a while. The Euro digs the northern stream s/w and captures the one to the south. Hence the warm solution. GFS keeps them separate and in the process speeds up th enorthern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 For BUF its always the same old song. Either too warm for snow or cold enough for snow but not enough moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 12Z GGEM looks more GFS like than NAM like....but warmer than GFS...I guess sort of a compromise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 For BUF its always the same old song. Either too warm for snow or cold enough for snow but not enough moisture. Same exact thing here in GFL too. We very very seldom get lake effect snow here. I just cannot figure out why we can get clipper storms( not this year but overall) but yet, lake effect has no effect. Synoptic storms are a snow lovers dream for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Devin can't complain. Buffalo is the largest city that receives nearly 100+ inches of snow per year. We get spoiled here from all the LES snowstorms that make synoptic systems seem like chump change. As long as the lake stays warm, anything can happen... 2 weeks from now we could get hit by 5-6 feet of snow, you can't predict this stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Devin can't complain. Buffalo is the largest city that receives nearly 100+ inches of snow per year. We get spoiled here from all the LES snowstorms that make synoptic systems seem like chump change. As long as the lake stays warm, anything can happen... 2 weeks from now we could get hit by 5-6 feet of snow, you can't predict this stuff! we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Richard is right,it only takes a week with the right setup to get all of our seasonal total just like bald eagle back in 02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 A 42 degree lake in January, think of the possibilities!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 going off free maps, euro looks like it would be a monster storm for CNY/ NE NY and southern canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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