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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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Even in my worst case scenario I figured we'd at least see some light snow at the very end of this thing...and even that's a fail.

We're not going to get another Boxing Day miracle like last year.

Both Euro and GFS trying to do something middle of next week...but of course there's some ridging (i.e. torching in the BL) ahead of the system and the flow is so progressive that whatever tries to get going is quickly shunted off to the east. I doubt anything comes of it...but I'm sure I'll be glued to the models, because I have a disease.

Plus...there's always 2012.

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And after our green X-mas (for most of us), the beat most likely will continue.

From BUF AFD long range:

A LOOK AT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEK

PERIOD SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF +AO AND +NAO...NEUTRAL PNA...AND THE

MJO STUCK IN PHASE 4-5 OF THE WHEELER PHASE SPACE PLOT. IN SIMPLE

TERMS...THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY PROGRESSIVE AND

MILD...WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES

CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AND AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK

OF JANUARY. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THERE WILL NOT BE A FEW BRIEF SHOTS

OF COLDER WEATHER AND A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW...BUT ON AVERAGE

OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS THE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE.

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Too much freakin Pacific air around. GFS hinting at a light event on Tuesday, but I won't be fooled again by boundary layer temps. I'm bettin on rain as of now. Setup looks eerily similar to last nights clusterfudge. I won't get fooled again.

For those of us close to the lake if it even matters lake Erie is at 42 degrees which is 5 degrees above normal for todays date. I'm sure by the time cold enough air finally gets around here we will have lost much of lake Erie's kindness that she's trying to give us right now. This winter flatout sucks.
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ALB NWS tried to give some hope on Facebook. Posted a stat that showed the 10 least snowy Decembers along with the corresponding seasonal averages...and the average of those 10 Decembers was 46.19"...with the least being 35.1". Below average, but all well above the least snowy season on record. So I guess there's still hope for a few decent storms.

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I thought that the only cure for the disease was snow, but the more I get the more I want. This board is really a support group for us snow weenie sickies. I guess it's better than crack. Happy Holidays to all :santa: !!!!

Even in my worst case scenario I figured we'd at least see some light snow at the very end of this thing...and even that's a fail.

We're not going to get another Boxing Day miracle like last year.

Both Euro and GFS trying to do something middle of next week...but of course there's some ridging (i.e. torching in the BL) ahead of the system and the flow is so progressive that whatever tries to get going is quickly shunted off to the east. I doubt anything comes of it...but I'm sure I'll be glued to the models, because I have a disease.

Plus...there's always 2012.

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Maybe we can conjure up some Lake Effect with this sharp vort coming through on Christmas. Lake Ontario has been largely dead this year to anyone south of the Tug, but one can always dream of one or two good squalls on Christmas to improve the mood.

For those of us close to the lake if it even matters lake Erie is at 42 degrees which is 5 degrees above normal for todays date. I'm sure by the time cold enough air finally gets around here we will have lost much of lake Erie's kindness that she's trying to give us right now. This winter flatout sucks.

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The least snowiest season on record for Albany is a rarity that would probably send some local snow lovers jumping off the escarpment if they experiences again! haha :) Even so, a season with only 35-46" would be tough when you're used to averaging in the 60's. All relative. I get a little more here NW as I get nickled and dimed quite a bit (well, not this year) from dying lake effect bands off Ontario, but sentiments are the same.

KALB's new 30 yr average is I guess all the way down to just shy of 60". Seems to be more a case of bad luck at that particular station as many other stations in all directions outside of KALB seemed to increase theirs.

ALB NWS tried to give some hope on Facebook. Posted a stat that showed the 10 least snowy Decembers along with the corresponding seasonal averages...and the average of those 10 Decembers was 46.19"...with the least being 35.1". Below average, but all well above the least snowy season on record. So I guess there's still hope for a few decent storms.

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I had been thinking a replay of 06-07 would be OK (Upstate got tons of lake effect and a couple good storms towards the second half of winter), but the mood on the old Eastern board that season was toxic. There wasn't much to speak of until February, then Central NY got hammered with the lake effect (remembering people driving to Pulaski to chase). Valentine's Day saw the storm that models began as a Mid-Atlantic storm, then adjusting north to New England, before eventually hitting Central and Eastern NY hard while turning it into a historic sleetfest for the rest. Trying to follow that storm brought the board to a crawl, and it further upset many outside of the few of us from this region.

Maybe we can conjure up some Lake Effect with this sharp vort coming through on Christmas. Lake Ontario has been largely dead this year to anyone south of the Tug, but one can always dream of one or two good squalls on Christmas to improve the mood.

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That winter redeemed itself pretty good for us ...but I'm never happy about pissing away half of met. winter....

That was the last year here with no snow on Xmas at my place. Last year was skimpy, but an inch or so made it white.

Looking back further I don't think there was snow cover here in 04' (owned the property, but no house yet) and in '05 we had snow, but a cold miserable rain moved in and that was a mood buster.

NAM is taking a band of snow showers through Xmas evening with the trof...could be some mood flakes and a small accumulation. But with the luck the HV has ...maybe it will be rain showers there.

I had been thinking a replay of 06-07 would be OK (Upstate got tons of lake effect and a couple good storms towards the second half of winter), but the mood on the old Eastern board that season was toxic. There wasn't much to speak of until February, then Central NY got hammered with the lake effect (remembering people driving to Pulaski to chase). Valentine's Day saw the storm that models began as a Mid-Atlantic storm, then adjusting north to New England, before eventually hitting Central and Eastern NY hard while turning it into a historic sleetfest for the rest. Trying to follow that storm brought the board to a crawl, and it further upset many outside of the few of us from this region.

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2" of snow on Johnsburg... white Christmas as usual, but not by much!

I don't think we'll be quite so lucky down here in Queensbury / GFL.

I'm looking forward to a few good storms, but I must admit I hope it isn't like last year with storm after storm after storm. Made for an exciting pattern, but lots of work plowing and snow grooming... which left less time for having fun!

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4 inches for December was a long shot, but it looks like it may come true at KBuf. Devin 11.2 inches in the snowiest month for Buffalo nearly every year. The MJO is in the latter stages and nearly all climatologists believe the Jan-March time frame will be near normal. With lake Erie not freezing anytime soon, I believe we will receive 30-40 inches in January.

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4 inches for December was a long shot, but it looks like it may come true at KBuf. Devin 11.2 inches in the snowiest month for Buffalo nearly every year. The MJO is in the latter stages and nearly all climatologists believe the Jan-March time frame will be near normal. With lake Erie not freezing anytime soon, I believe we will receive 30-40 inches in January.

I dont think we will see close to 30-40 in Buffalo in Jan only because the outlooks that go into the first week of Jan right now don't show any real cold air/good lake effect set up yet. That only leaves us with about 3 weeks of Jan left and as of right now that's up in the air. I agree with you that the MJO is in the latter stages but there is also quite a lag between when the MJO weakens and when the weather will correlate to it. I can see the last 2 weeks of Jan maybe being pretty good but by then the lake will have cooled significantly even with above normal temps. I can see febuary dropping the most snow out of any month with a few clippers dropping 2-4" and somewhat of an EC storm dropping a foot or so on us late month. The febuary predictons of mine are of course just guesses and nothing more.
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Did a little research in regard to the Climatology talk at the bottom of the latest NWS forecast Discussion. It brings out:

.CLIMATE…

WITH THE WET SNOW FAILING TO STICK IN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER EARLY

THIS MORNING…BOTH CITIES ARE VIRTUALLY A66URED OF A SNOW-LESS

CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. IN FACT…THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY STILL HAVE

WHITE GROUND CHRISTMAS MORNING ARE THE HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN

TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO…BUT EVEN IN THESE

AREAS JUST A MINOR COATING MAY REMAIN.

THE WINTER OF 2011-12 HAS STARTED AT A RECORD SLOW PACE IN THE

SNOWFALL CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH

DECEMBER 22ND…THE CURRENT SNOW THIS SEASON OF 3.0 INCHES

(BUFFALO) AND 2.5 INCHES (ROCHESTER) ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL THUS

FAR. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL YEARS THAT HAVE HAD SIMILAR STARTS

THOUGH. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IN BOTH

CITIES IN PREVIOUS YEARS ON RECORD…MEASURED AT THE RESPECTIVE

AIRPORTS…THROUGH AND INCLUDING CHRISTMAS EVE.

BUFFALO

1 3.0 2011

2 3.1 1998

3 3.3 1931

4 3.6 1896

5 4.3 1918

10 6.5 1888

15 7.8 1891

***NORMAL THROUGH DECEMBER 24TH 29.1***

The 1998-1999 year ended with 100.5 inches of snow at KBUF. With 65.1 inches falling in January of 1999.

The 1931, 1896, 1918, 1891, 1888 years I could not find much research with, but I believe the recording station was on the lake front, so hard to include that within this record.

Hard to go by one year, but shows the possibility of lake Erie being at 42 degrees in what is persistently the coldest month in KBUFs history.

Buffalo got hit with several large LES snow events during that month of January. Here is the link for some detail:

http://www.erh.noaa....fect/98-99.html

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