Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Yeah that kind of elevation means if you measure a bad winter in purely snowfall terms.... even mild years with relentless Pacific origin storms, that can be their biggest years. It snows like hell with Pacific air masses at 10K feet. Last year was a mod. La Nina so the northern part of the west in general should have been snowy. We bucked the climo odds last year in doing pretty well. Many places out west broke snow records last year. Northern Colorado and Wyoming got plastered. I don't think that they've had a bad winter in a while out there.....of course being above 10,000ft. helps. I played in the snow if August in Colorado last summer. I guess my point is that the West has had a lot of turns lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Funny thing is you couldn't buy a better track for ALB in a sw flow event....just off south shore of LI But this not being a normal winter....there are still p-type issues. The new ECM probably has .65 or .7 in ALB and that is along the spine of the heaviest qpf now.... It also does a devastating job on the snowfall maps of showing the immediate lowest elevations not making it - while it piles up east and west of ALB. Yeah that kind of elevation means if you measure a bad winter in purely snowfall terms.... even mild years with relentless Pacific origin storms, that can be their biggest years. It snows like hell with Pacific air masses at 10K feet. Last year was a mod. La Nina so the northern part of the west in general should have been snowy. We bucked the climo odds last year in doing pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The week after Christmas does not look much better for snow chances. This reminds me of 2007 so far. At least that year consisted of the big February record breaking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Oh well..I'm glad I got out of the HV. If you stay in the ALB area...25-30 minute commute in and you can be at 1000 feet out here and even 1500 feet slightly south into the Helderbergs more. It's much more rewarding. See my season snow totals in sig. below compared to ALB over the last six years. Looks like some good seasonal totals. I was up at Thatcher park (02 or 03?) and a cold rain changed to snow for about 10 mins coating the ground, in September! Think I have a pic somewhere, gotta find it. Many places out west broke snow records last year. Northern Colorado and Wyoming got plastered. I don't think that they've had a bad winter in a while out there.....of course being above 10,000ft. helps. I played in the snow if August in Colorado last summer. I guess my point is that the West has had a lot of turns lately. Yeah that kind of elevation means if you measure a bad winter in purely snowfall terms.... even mild years with relentless Pacific origin storms, that can be their biggest years. It snows like hell with Pacific air masses at 10K feet. Last year was a mod. La Nina so the northern part of the west in general should have been snowy. We bucked the climo odds last year in doing pretty well. Last year was hit or miss in the west. In typical Nina fashion, the east slopes did quite poorly, with places like Denver recording less than half of their normal seasonal snowfall total. But I also visited north central Colorado last June, and the snow still lay many feet deep there. Excited about my return to Albany tomorrow night. I'm hoping there's still an unmelted half-inch on the ground when I get there, but I won't hold my breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'm hoping Albany gets a few inches somehow. I have childhood memories of going to Colonie Center in the 70's Christmas shopping ( + going to see Santa in his chamber inside that big Xmas tree they always had set up in the mall) and the big snow piles in the parking lot. Of course I'll be last minute shopping again Saturday Hah ...and much more festive if I don't drive into a barren area there with no snow. Looks like some good seasonal totals. I was up at Thatcher park (02 or 03?) and a cold rain changed to snow for about 10 mins coating the ground, in September! Think I have a pic somewhere, gotta find it. Last year was hit or miss in the west. In typical Nina fashion, the east slopes did quite poorly, with places like Denver recording less than half of their normal seasonal snowfall total. But I also visited north central Colorado last June, and the snow still lay many feet deep there. Excited about my return to Albany tomorrow night. I'm hoping there's still an unmelted half-inch on the ground when I get there, but I won't hold my breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'm hoping Albany gets a few inches somehow. I have childhood memories of going to Colonie Center in the 70's Christmas shopping ( + going to see Santa in his chamber inside that big Xmas tree they always had set up in the mall) and the big snow piles in the parking lot. Of course I'll be last minute shopping again Saturday Hah ...and much more festive if I don't drive into a barren area there with no snow. I've been to Colonie Center plenty of times, I like the classy re-design. Can't say I was around for the 70s, but I definitely remember some huge snow piles following the Blizzard of 93, Jan 94 (42" in one month), and my recent favorite, 43" in 11 days from Dec 25 2002 - Jan 4 2003. Ahh, the good old days. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 I lived in the HV below ALB in the 70's so it always seemed like I was in the snowy north at Colonie Center ...compared to down near Catskill. It's all relative...... Yeah much nicer ....years ago it was the main place (opened in 1965 I think) before Crossgates Mall (opened in 1984) ..so they had to finally bring it up to date to compete. Oh useless fact ...that Toys R Us across the way is venerable.. LOL That was there was back into the mid/late 70's and there wasn't much else across there. FYI ..Wolfe Road was mostly farms in that good sandy pine bush soil. In the early days of Colonie Center it was just farms and undeveloped further north of it.. farms also totally surrounded KALB and perhaps some climo effects to that urbanization. I've been to Colonie Center plenty of times, I like the classy re-design. Can't say I was around for the 70s, but I definitely remember some huge snow piles following the Blizzard of 93, Jan 94 (42" in one month), and my recent favorite, 43" in 11 days from Dec 25 2002 - Jan 4 2003. Ahh, the good old days. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My thinking for WNY from tonight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The northeastern portion of WNY is going to be getting lake enhancement following the departure of the storm. I can see them picking up 2-4 inches as well. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I lived in the HV below ALB in the 70's so it always seemed like I was in the snowy north at Colonie Center ...compared to down near Catskill. It's all relative...... Yeah much nicer ....years ago it was the main place (opened in 1965 I think) before Crossgates Mall (opened in 1984) ..so they had to finally bring it up to date to compete. Oh useless fact ...that Toys R Us across the way is venerable.. LOL That was there was back into the mid/late 70's and there wasn't much else across there. FYI ..Wolfe Road was mostly farms in that good sandy pine bush soil. In the early days of Colonie Center it was just farms and undeveloped further north of it.. farms also totally surrounded KALB and perhaps some climo effects to that urbanization. Interesting stuff! Back to the subject of Enso... Last year was a good snowfall Nina for the Capital Region, but it wasn't necessarily a fluke. While NYC, Philly and DC tend to get more snow in a Nino than a Nina, it isn't well correlated for Albany. Quite a few average to above years, including the snowiest ever (70-71) were Ninas, but there have also been some real flops like 88-89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The northeastern portion of WNY is going to be getting lake enhancement following the departure of the storm. I can see them picking up 2-4 inches as well. Just a thought. Foregot about that! NE wind of 44 degree Lake Ontario! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z NAM has the .25" QPF line almost all the way to Niagara Falls Lockport. I think many of us in WNY could wake up to a few inches on the grass tomorrow =] http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F22%2F2011+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p12&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=018&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Dewpoints in Alb and Gfl are 39F....wetbulbs still in the 40's. Tonight's sounding will be interesting or depressing depending how you look at it. Doesn't feel like snow...feels like a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 42/35 here now ...some distance to go before it could snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 still very warm into the adriondacks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Things have trended north though so I'd imagine Lake George is good for 2 or 3 inches of wet gloppy snow now at their rather low elevation. Elevated areas around there gonna do pretty good. Let's see where ALY hoists advisories. still very warm into the adriondacks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 41/36 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 "It's beginning to look a lot like Easter." By the time any cold air gets here, it might be too late. I'm thinking D-2" in valley and 2"-4" above 1000', but i wouldn't be surprised if I'm on the high side. What am I gonna do with a week off in winter and no snow to play in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 40.3/34.3 now... OVC ... 41/36 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 "It's beginning to look a lot like Easter." By the time any cold air gets here, it might be too late. I'm thinking D-2" in valley and 2"-4" above 1000', but i wouldn't be surprised if I'm on the high side. What am I gonna do with a week off in winter and now snow to play in. I've been thinking an inch or less in the valley since I woke up this morning. Just not looking good. No cold air to be found. The cooler air that was progged to move in modeled earlier this week was overdone. We'll have some flakes around tomorrow morning, that about the only think I'm confident in. Someone up in the hills may eek out 3", especially says the hills around Saratoga. Otherwise...stick a fork in this one. Looks like the first "plowable" snow for me this season won't be seen until 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 gfs is a bit more amped up...definitely better for those of us on the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 South Berne at 1700' ..watch their obs in the morning. Over/under at 4 inches there I think....5 is within the realm. I'm hoping for 2 inches ...will stay white for xmas then with temps holding around 35 here tomorrow. I've been thinking an inch or less in the valley since I woke up this morning. Just not looking good. No cold air to be found. The cooler air that was progged to move in modeled earlier this week was overdone. We'll have some flakes around tomorrow morning, that about the only think I'm confident in. Someone up in the hills may eek out 3", especially says the hills around Saratoga. Otherwise...stick a fork in this one. Looks like the first "plowable" snow for me this season won't be seen until 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 gfs is a bit more amped up...definitely better for those of us on the gradient. Whats your opinion for buf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 South Berne at 1700' ..watch their obs in the morning. Over/under at 4 inches there I think....5 is within the realm. I'm hoping for 2 inches ...will stay white for xmas then with temps holding around 35 here tomorrow. what's your elevation there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Just 1k feet even.... what's your elevation there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Whats your opinion for buf? it's a tough call...I mean on one hand...models are now in the .25" range...but on the other...it seems unlikely that we get into good banding which could spell disaster with a marginal BL. Even with the bump on qpf and the jog north I'm struggling to think more than 1" for the city. Hope for the best...expect the worst. I think Buffalo pulls off a white christmas though...we have this system and then nice compact shortwave on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Just 1k feet even.... It looks like it could be decent around your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I'll have to head up to Thacher Park on Sat with the kids (I can drive from 225' at my house to 1600' in the Helderbergs in about 15 minutes). I love where I live except for the elevation. I'm 10 minutes from downtown Albany where my shop is (in case I have to get there quick) and 10 minutes from the base of the Helderbergs. Maybe I'll put my house on 1000' stilts with an elevator. How cool would that be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Well if you ever want to relocate.... two spots that get you a lot of elevation and are very easy commutes... Up 156 just 5 mins from Altamont and you are atop the escarpment around 1100-1200 feet...really fast. Settles Hill Road, Town of Guilderland ....access off route 20 maybe 10 miles west of Crossgates. Gets to 900 feet or so and always does a lot better snow-wise. I'll have to head up to Thacher Park on Sat with the kids (I can drive from 225' at my house to 1600' in the Helderbergs in about 15 minutes). I love where I live except for the elevation. I'm 10 minutes from downtown Albany where my shop is (in case I have to get there quick) and 10 minutes from the base of the Helderbergs. Maybe I'll put my house on 1000' stilts with an elevator. How cool would that be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think that the closest to my shop on Delaware Ave. would be just above New Salem on the way to Thacher....but I'm not moving. I love snow, but I hate driving and I'm so close to everything and I don't have to spend lots of time hauling the kids everywhere and I can bike to my shop and lots of other places in the summer and our house is awesome.....I guess it's hard to have it all. Well if you ever want to relocate.... two spots that get you a lot of elevation and are very easy commutes... Up 156 just 5 mins from Altamont and you are atop the escarpment around 1100-1200 feet...really fast. Settles Hill Road, Town of Guilderland ....access off route 20 maybe 10 miles west of Crossgates. Gets to 900 feet or so and always does a lot better snow-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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