West Point, NY Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Nice temp. gradient today. Stayed in the 33-36 range from GFL to Saratoga Springs with a calm wind while from Albany to Clifton Park there was a good SE wind ripping the flags around and temps jumped into the mid 40's. You saw when you hit the boundary as you went from fog to good visibility around Exit 12 on the Northway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Seems almost like an El Nino event ...think Jan. 1998, though nothing to compare to that. Once in a lifetime event. I hope. Heavy rain right now... still 28F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Probably at least a repeat of two weeks ago when we had 3 to 5 inches generally in the hill towns. White Christmas assured barring some further northward shift which I doubt.... Even the amped Euro was all snow here. Very dense fog all around Duanesburg and stuck on 38F for about the last five hours here. I just got back from my nieces Christmas play and you can barely see the road. Hopefully not a complete redux...valley was completely screwed for that one. But I am rather nervous...the 0z NAM has +3C at the surface at the onset of precip. Bufkit starts things as rain. On the plus side...850's will be well below zero which certainly wasn't the case a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Freezing rain warning here in Ottawa.....it's been rainning all day...very icy out! just got in from northern vermont to ottawa. was +6C in BTV, +3C at the border I-89, and 0C at saint jean richelieu......downtown MTL was pretty dry, very little ice accumulatiuon with a temp of -1C. once i got into the western sections of the city on route 40, ice buildup increased. i normally never drive in FRZRA but i had to be in ottawa by tomorrow AM. once we got outside montreal onto 417 esp out around hawkesbury and then all the way into ottawa, it was pelting FRZRA with a temp between -1C and -2C. i wouldnt say treacherous as theyve clearly hammered the roads with salt all day, but slushed over left lane adn everyone driving 30-40mph all the way on 417, definitiely not the best conditionos if you got off line. radio reported lots of slips and falls in montreal from pedestrians, and lots of that + car accidents reported in ottawa. nice scene in ottawa though, no snow anywhere but a now iced over grass and trees and pavement.....they certainly got more ice accum than i anticipated,but then ottawa is a FRZRA magnet as u know. i'd snap some pics maybe tomorrow when i get a moment. wanted to pick up the recylcing bins at the end of the driveway at my folks, but forget it, everything is iced over. wonder if we can hang onto the ice on the grass for an ice christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 NAM made me a bit nervous too. It doesn't seem right to have a the 0C 850 line so far south on 12/23 and have to worry about rain at night. Welcome to the first half of winter 11/12. Hopefully not a complete redux...valley was completely screwed for that one. But I am rather nervous...the 0z NAM has +3C at the surface at the onset of precip. Bufkit starts things as rain. On the plus side...850's will be well below zero which certainly wasn't the case a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 0z nam looks decent for some LES over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 1'' of freezing rain is possible here tonight. stay safe man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Sitting 40 miles to the north of Albany and am still wondering if my new job has made me the snow jinx for the season. I just read the NWS AFD and there is no mention of anything north of Albany---------we are gonna have to buy snow storms it seems. I am hoping Feburary goes into winter mode. Reading some of the other posts it looks like January will be more of the same as we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 My sense is that the ALB area mets are extremely gun shy after the beating they took two weeks ago when the 6"+ forecast in the valley turned to a nothing. This doesn't have that kind of potential, but it's coming in late at night, temps and dew points have a chance to come down before precip. moves in, 850 temps are cold enough. I think the valley from the CD to GFL gets into that 2-3 inch range. GFL around the 2" line. Around 3"-4", few 5's in the hills east and west of ALB. Now if the Euro comes in warmer maybe I eat those words.... The goal is a white Christmas right ...different standard than if we were perceiving this as a big snowstorm. Sitting 40 miles to the north of Albany and am still wondering if my new job has made me the snow jinx for the season. I just read the NWS AFD and there is no mention of anything north of Albany---------we are gonna have to buy snow storms it seems. I am hoping Feburary goes into winter mode. Reading some of the other posts it looks like January will be more of the same as we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 At this point I would be happy with a 3-4" snowfall. Now from my understanding, all of the models have lost the Christmas Eve/Day storm all together. Is this a common thing for models--ESP all of them---to "lose" a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Hell, I'd be happy with someone standing on our roof, dumping spray painted corn flakes at this point. At 43, I figure I have (God willing) another 35 or so years of winters...Don't want to waste another winter....EVER!...And I don't need to see record low snow totals being posted!!! I've got a sister in Liverpool. I'm sure we could work something out. I would charge by the hour and use Frosted Flakes instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Can I buy an inch for the LG area.....I hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 If it's cold enough.... You can always have a white Christmas. It just takes a little planning.... Admittedly this was last weekend. But I'm already to go again if need be. If anyone in the LG / GFL area has a pressure washer and compressor (or at least the air compressor) and wants to borrow it over the weekend if we don't get any snow let me know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 My sense is that the ALB area mets are extremely gun shy after the beating they took two weeks ago when the 6"+ forecast in the valley turned to a nothing. This doesn't have that kind of potential, but it's coming in late at night, temps and dew points have a chance to come down before precip. moves in, 850 temps are cold enough. I think the valley from the CD to GFL gets into that 2-3 inch range. GFL around the 2" line. Around 3"-4", few 5's in the hills east and west of ALB. Now if the Euro comes in warmer maybe I eat those words.... The goal is a white Christmas right ...different standard than if we were perceiving this as a big snowstorm. I don't know if I agree with you on that. The boundary layer is torched here in the valley...and precip overall looks fairly light. This is the time of year that time of day matters least. Sun angle is at its lowest. Maybe it was getting burned hard a couple weeks ago on that event, but warning signs are there...only difference is this one will start a bit colder at 850 but the tradeoff is we won't have the same kind of lift and precip rates to help cool the BL. At this point I'm considering it a victory if I get an inch, and even if we get it...it will be wet and most of it will be gone by end of the day on the 24th. Heck...it will be overnight I may not even get to see much of it fall...I'll be up in time to watch it start melting away. So right now I'm thinking 1" or less in the valley...I could see 1-3" for you and others up in the hills. I'll wait to see the 12z models before locking that forecast in, but its gonna take some pretty big changes to make me budge on that. This whole system has me in a very grinchy mood this morning. At this point I would be happy with a 3-4" snowfall. Now from my understanding, all of the models have lost the Christmas Eve/Day storm all together. Is this a common thing for models--ESP all of them---to "lose" a storm? It was more of a late Christmas/Boxing Day storm...and yeah...we've seen models lose storms in this time frame before. If its a phase between the northerly and southerly streams...all it takes is some small shifts in timing of vort maxes in each stream to take a system from being modeled to come up the coast to keeping it it suppressed and strung out to the south. That said, its far far far from a given that the models will bring this back. There's reason to keep an eye on it...but honestly if there no signals in any of the models today suggesting the chance for this thing to make a run up the coast its time to write it off. This pattern sucks...assuming nothing works out for the 26th, I'm looking forward to being able to take another week off from diligent model watch after tomorrow morning's crapfest...watching the models try to thread the needle on these events does not put me in a good mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 The new NAM has .5" or a bit more in ALB. 850's are fine..can't speak for the BL warmth... I don't know if I agree with you on that. The boundary layer is torched here in the valley...and precip overall looks fairly light. This is the time of year that time of day matters least. Sun angle is at its lowest. Maybe it was getting burned hard a couple weeks ago on that event, but warning signs are there...only difference is this one will start a bit colder at 850 but the tradeoff is we won't have the same kind of lift and precip rates to help cool the BL. At this point I'm considering it a victory if I get an inch, and even if we get it...it will be wet and most of it will be gone by end of the day on the 24th. Heck...it will be overnight I may not even get to see much of it fall...I'll be up in time to watch it start melting away. So right now I'm thinking 1" or less in the valley...I could see 1-3" for you and others up in the hills. I'll wait to see the 12z models before locking that forecast in, but its gonna take some pretty big changes to make me budge on that. This whole system has me in a very grinchy mood this morning. It was more of a late Christmas/Boxing Day storm...and yeah...we've seen models lose storms in this time frame before. If its a phase between the northerly and southerly streams...all it takes is some small shifts in timing of vort maxes in each stream to take a system from being modeled to come up the coast to keeping it it suppressed and strung out to the south. That said, its far far far from a given that the models will bring this back. There's reason to keep an eye on it...but honestly if there no signals in any of the models today suggesting the chance for this thing to make a run up the coast its time to write it off. This pattern sucks...assuming nothing works out for the 26th, I'm looking forward to being able to take another week off from diligent model watch after tomorrow morning's crapfest...watching the models try to thread the needle on these events does not put me in a good mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 The new NAM has .5" or a bit more in ALB. 850's are fine..can't speak for the BL warmth... NAM has ~+3C at the surface for pretty much the entire event...and that's at saturation...dews & wetbulb also up between +2 & +3. I believe snow will fall, I just think its gonna struggle to accumulate in the valley. Plus...NAM has the tendency to overdo QPF a bit...so even though the 12z has 0.6" or so around ALB...I imagine we could be closer to 0.3-0.4" in the end. Factor in some mixing at the beginning and 20:1 ratios when we go all snow...there's you're 1" or less. Sorry to be a debbie downer this morning...I'm just not feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I've got a sister in Liverpool. I'm sure we could work something out. I would charge by the hour and use Frosted Flakes instead. As long as my kids can make a "Frosted Flake-man", then it should be good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think it will be tough for the BL to cool much from evaporation given the fairly moist 12z ALB sounding below 850 mb and no signs of any dry air being advected into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I think it will be tough for the BL to cool much from evaporation given the fairly moist 12z ALB sounding below 850 mb and no signs of any dry air being advected into the area. yep...kind of what I was getting at. Wet bulb & dews are also a couple degrees above zero in the BL, and sounding is already saturated. Flakes? Sure. But it's gonna be another nail biter in the valley to see whether that amounts to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 And FWIW...the Bufkit for NAM does have 0.521" QPF...but half of that falls as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Oh well..I'm glad I got out of the HV. If you stay in the ALB area...25-30 minute commute in and you can be at 1000 feet out here and even 1500 feet slightly south into the Helderbergs more. It's much more rewarding. See my season snow totals in sig. below compared to ALB over the last six years. GFS a little moister ... must be .4 or .45 in ALB now, but I'm looking at the poor maps. GFS mysteriously has very little qpf after 9Z when we should be under whatever deformation this system manages. nore yep...kind of what I was getting at. Wet bulb & dews are also a couple degrees above zero in the BL, and sounding is already saturated. Flakes? Sure. But it's gonna be another nail biter in the valley to see whether that amounts to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 NAM has ~+3C at the surface for pretty much the entire event...and that's at saturation...dews & wetbulb also up between +2 & +3. I believe snow will fall, I just think its gonna struggle to accumulate in the valley. Plus...NAM has the tendency to overdo QPF a bit...so even though the 12z has 0.6" or so around ALB...I imagine we could be closer to 0.3-0.4" in the end. Factor in some mixing at the beginning and 20:1 ratios when we go all snow...there's you're 1" or less. Sorry to be a debbie downer this morning...I'm just not feeling this one. Out this way in CNY, the 09z SREF's and 12z NAM slid the fringe of accumulating "slop/higher elev. snows" northward a decent amount, with the NAM actually, now, generating more qpf than the GFS previous runs.....my take is that the GFS has had the best handle on this and is fairly close to some of the Euro runs. Nice whitening for the hills in S/CNY and into E. NY....valleys and the lake plain might create "mood" snow/slop...doubt it stays for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks slightly better for the GFL to LG area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 WNY will manage to pull off some snow with the first low and then some lake-effect/enhanced stuff with the shortwave from Canada that follows. There is a somewhat decent chance of pulling off a White Christmas and not setting the pre-Christmas futility record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 As long as my kids can make a "Frosted Flake-man", then it should be good!! hahaha Ok. Looking the the hills of Otsego county got a shot at some white. Elevation will help it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Talking my wife into moving out here (1,400 feet) 15 years ago from Niskayuna was one of my crowning achievements. Of course she's been miserable ever since and has been towed out of ditches 4 times in that span... but I still managed to stay married! Oh well..I'm glad I got out of the HV. If you stay in the ALB area...25-30 minute commute in and you can be at 1000 feet out here and even 1500 feet slightly south into the Helderbergs more. It's much more rewarding. See my season snow totals in sig. below compared to ALB over the last six years. GFS a little moister ... must be .4 or .45 in ALB now, but I'm looking at the poor maps. GFS mysteriously has very little qpf after 9Z when we should be under whatever deformation this system manages. nore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I want to go sledding, it is a Christmas tradition! Every year we go to chestnut ridge and sled! We were able to do it last year, doesn't look like this year is gonna be possible, unless that LES drops a quick 4-6 inches or something Friday night into Saturday morning. But then again it gets warm! What is going on with this planet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 It's really just a cyclical thing and not unusual for this kind of La Nina. It's the Western US's turn this year. I'm sure we'll get bouts of cold/snow, but the theme this winter is that it is consistently colder out west and we get periods where it can come east, interspersed with mild wx. I'm not counting on building much deep snow pack this winter. Some have said that at times things can turn late and you get a cold and snowy March in the east in 2nd year La Nina's.... but I'm no expert. In conclusion...I can tell you that I was in some thankless winters in the 80's growing up so this isn't without precedent. I want to go sledding, it is a Christmas tradition! Every year we go to chestnut ridge and sled! We were able to do it last year, doesn't look like this year is gonna be possible, unless that LES drops a quick 4-6 inches or something Friday night into Saturday morning. But then again it gets warm! What is going on with this planet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Dendrite Brian says the Euro gets the 0.25" QPF line up to BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Many places out west broke snow records last year. Northern Colorado and Wyoming got plastered. I don't think that they've had a bad winter in a while out there.....of course being above 10,000ft. helps. I played in the snow if August in Colorado last summer. I guess my point is that the West has had a lot of turns lately. It's really just a cyclical thing and not unusual for this kind of La Nina. It's the Western US's turn this year. I'm sure we'll get bouts of cold/snow, but the theme this winter is that it is consistently colder out west and we get periods where it can come east, interspersed with mild wx. I'm not counting on building much deep snow pack this winter. Some have said that at times things can turn late and you get a cold and snowy March in the east in 2nd year La Nina's.... but I'm no expert. In conclusion...I can tell you that I was in some thankless winters in the 80's growing up so this isn't without precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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