BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Whats the KING EURO saying in regards to this storm? Also anyone have the QPF outputs from it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 00z GFS seems to have a similar QPF for Friday as the 00z NAM except slightly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 GFS very similar to the GGEM and NAM in its track of that storm. Looks to be a 2-4 inch event for WNY if this holds true. Hopefully it edges a little bit more west before it hits! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 LET THE NW TREND BEGIN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Boundary layer temp's are going to be a big issue with the Thur Night / Friday Morning storm. Doesn't appear as though the NAM or GFS drop surface temp's to near or below freezing until after storm has pulled east on Friday. Think most areas that actually get into decent QPF are going to have a hard time seeing much in the way of accumulation, especially valleys. Probably just a slushy inch or so in valleys to maybe couple inches across higher terrain south of I-90. Not going to complain though, will take anything at this point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro is still a bit too far south to be interesting for BUF...looks okay from Alleghany County east to BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Santa is getting sad. I think maybe I'll let him hold the push mower instead of the snow stick. My grass is greener than it was all summer. Winter :FAIL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 06Z NAM says dusting for BUF. 06Z GFS is largely unchanged from the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 So not much of a surprise...models have trended a bit more north with the Friday event, getting appreciable QPF into the Capital Region. Problem is...will it be cold enough at the surface for accumulations? As usual, I don't think there's too much concern for those with some elvation. For us suckers in the valley, I could see this being yet another accumulating snowfall that leaves the roads mostly wet. As for the 25/26th event...0z Euro suppressed it. Don't think its time to abandon all hope yet...the Euro/GFS can do weird things with systems in the 3-5 days range and turn them into non-events for a few runs (see the GFS' laughable runs yesterday which were void of any storm at all). Very reminiscent of last year's boxing day blizzard...storms had something pegged....then lost it Christmas week only to bring it back 48 hours out. That's not a guarantee...but it is a reason to not totally write it off yet. As long as there's a storm on the models, no reason to completely write it off before Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 How far north do you think the warm air is going to go? I am totally confused and frustrated with this pattern. It has been warm and rain. If I recall correctly, wasnt last years blocking too strong and now this years--- at least so far--- has been a complete lack of blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 How far north do you think the warm air is going to go? I am totally confused and frustrated with this pattern. It has been warm and rain. If I recall correctly, wasnt last years blocking too strong and now this years--- at least so far--- has been a complete lack of blocking? This Thur. night/Friday system is a dampening evolution, where we have a decent h500 convergence setting up just to the north of the boarder, ideal for holding midlevel cold air in place. I think the bubble of HP to the north of NY is under modeled, and p-type won't be as big of a concern as much as the potential for a further south solution for W/N/C NY....ie....I'd be more concerned about getting only a few flakes vs. any mixing issues..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 .CLIMATE... THE WINTER OF 2011-12 HAS STARTED SLOW IN THE SNOWFALL CATEGORY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH DECEMBER 19TH...THE CURRENT SNOW THIS SEASON OF 3.0 INCHES (BUFFALO) AND 2.1 INCHES(ROCHESTER) ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL THUS FAR. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL YEARS THAT HAVE HAD SIMILAR STARTS THOUGH. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IN BOTH CITIES...MEASURED AT THE RESPECTIVE AIRPORTS...THROUGH AND INCLUDING CHRISTMAS EVE. BUFFALO 1 3.0 2011 2 3.1 1998 3 3.3 1931 4 3.6 1896 5 4.3 1918 ... 10 6.5 1888 15 7.8 1891 ***NORMAL THROUGH DECEMBER 24TH 29.1*** ROCHESTER 1 2.1 2011 2 2.6 1939 3 3.7 2001 4 3.8 1877 5 4.2 2006 ... 10 6.2 1998 15 7.8 1940 ***NORMAL THROUGH DECEMBER 24TH 23.5*** SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO THE WINTER OF 1884-85. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'd imagine Syracuse is in the same boat too. They are at 1.7" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Santa is getting sad. I think maybe I'll let him hold the push mower instead of the snow stick. My grass is greener than it was all summer. Winter :FAIL: Tony that is sad but true...............things look to start happening in a week or two..........we can hope!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Eh, thats all we can do. What was is 2006-07 started out this way too, then BAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Euro/GFS/Canadian all on board for a 1-4" type deal for the capital region on Friday. NAM trended a bit further south at 12z and has us on the fringe. Hope we don't miss out on this one...would really set the mood for the holiday weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 NAM gives Alb about .1" QPF, GFS about .4", Euro about .7" if I read my Euro maps correctly. Quite the spread. Hopefully it sticks to the wet warm ground. Matbe the cold overperforms from the north and moisture overperforms from the south and the two thus meet in a seasonal baroclinicity of holiday festivity. Euro/GFS/Canadian all on board for a 1-4" type deal for the capital region on Friday. NAM trended a bit further south at 12z and has us on the fringe. Hope we don't miss out on this one...would really set the mood for the holiday weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Eh, thats all we can do. What was is 2006-07 started out this way too, then BAM I've been thinking the same thing.................Those 10-12 days of lake effect put on quite the show............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Nice write up from Albany NWSFO. Seem like another tough forecast for the old Capital District. 077 FXUS61 KALY 212039 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 339 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011 THE NAM TAKES THIS SFC LOW AND ITS QPF SHIELD FARTHER S THAN MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. NAM QPF 0.1 TO 0.2, THE GFS 0.2 TO 0.7 QPF ACROSS FCA. THE GFS PRODUCES THESE HIR AMOUNTS AS THE FCA IS IMPACTED BY SFC LOWS WAA...ARCTIC CDFNT DROPPING SOUTH AND THE 500 HPA. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THE NAM KEEPS ALL THE 500HPA DYNAMICS S OF RGN AND WE ARE ONLY IMPACTED BY N EDGE OF WAA SHIELDS AND IT DOESN'T GET ANY FURTHER N THAN ALB. THE CANADIAN IS IN SAME CAMP AS GFS. AS WAS THE 00UTC ECMWF. THE 09UTC SREF PLUMES HAVE A MEAN .21 QPF IN SNOW A MAX 0.54 AND ONLY ONE ALL RAIN AND ONE ONE DRY MEMBER...SO THE OPS NAM IS AN OUTLIER. THE 12UTC GEFS PLUMES QPF AT ALB AND RANGE FM 0.10 TO 1.OO LIQ. A SIZEABLE NUMBER PRODUCE MUCH OF THIS QPF AS RAIN AND WELL AS ALL SNOW. WHILE THE QPF IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THERE REMAIN PTYPE ISSUES AS ALWAYS. ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE 540 DM THICKNESS CROSSING THE RGN IN A NE-SW MANNER WITHIN A FEW MILES OF A ALB-BGM (I-88) AXIS. SO PTYPE WILL REQUIRE CAREFUL ATTENTION OF MDL SOUNDINGS IN MIDDLE OF FCA. SOUTH SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...NW AND HIR TRRN SNOW AND MIDDLE WHERE MOST OF THE PEOPLE LIVE MIXED. THIS RIBBON IS SVT/CAP DISTRICT/E MHWK VLY W CATSKILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 My son and I were so snow-starved that year that we took a trip to Oswego and enjoyed the 10 feet of lake effect......it compacted down to like 3 or 4 feet since it is fake snow. I've been thinking the same thing.................Those 10-12 days of lake effect put on quite the show............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Freezing rain warning here in Ottawa.....it's been rainning all day...very icy out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 My son and I were so snow-starved that year that we took a trip to Oswego and enjoyed the 10 feet of lake effect......it compacted down to like 3 or 4 feet since it is fake snow. Hell, I'd be happy with someone standing on our roof, dumping spray painted corn flakes at this point. At 43, I figure I have (God willing) another 35 or so years of winters...Don't want to waste another winter....EVER!...And I don't need to see record low snow totals being posted!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Absolutely pouring out right now, no thunder yet. Looks like some hope from the latest Buffalo Forecast Discussion. A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL LACK SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...H85 TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C WILL PROMOTE SOME LAKE ENHANCMENT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE EXITING SFC HIGH WILL REMOVE THE LIMITING SUBSIDENCE CAP. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO JUMP FROM <8000 FT TO NEARLY 15000 FT...ESSENTIALLY DOUBLING. MEANWHILE LICAPES WILL CLIMB TO OVER 500 J/KG ACROSS LK ONTARIO AND TO AROUND 300 J/KG OVER LK ERIE. THERE WILL BE A MODERATELY SHEARED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE THOUGH...SO THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF LK ERIE SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS BUFFALO WHILE THE MORE PROMISING/ORGANIZED LAKE SNOW OFF LK ONTARIO WILL BE NEAR/NORTH OF THE TUG. THE REASON FOR THE HIGHER PROBABILITY EAST OF ONTARIO WILL BE A COMBINATION OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Absolutely pouring out right now, no thunder yet. Looks like some hope from the latest Buffalo Forecast Discussion. A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL LACK SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...H85 TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C WILL PROMOTE SOME LAKE ENHANCMENT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE EXITING SFC HIGH WILL REMOVE THE LIMITING SUBSIDENCE CAP. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO JUMP FROM <8000 FT TO NEARLY 15000 FT...ESSENTIALLY DOUBLING. MEANWHILE LICAPES WILL CLIMB TO OVER 500 J/KG ACROSS LK ONTARIO AND TO AROUND 300 J/KG OVER LK ERIE. THERE WILL BE A MODERATELY SHEARED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE THOUGH...SO THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF LK ERIE SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS BUFFALO WHILE THE MORE PROMISING/ORGANIZED LAKE SNOW OFF LK ONTARIO WILL BE NEAR/NORTH OF THE TUG. THE REASON FOR THE HIGHER PROBABILITY EAST OF ONTARIO WILL BE A COMBINATION OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND GREATER LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. When is this for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Friday night into Saturday morning looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Friday night into Saturday morning looks like. Wow dude my bad. Didnt even click when i read the part that says friday night lol.Long day. Ha. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 As tough a pattern as this is, I might take it if it meant another 2 foot+ storm like Valentine's Day that season.... My son and I were so snow-starved that year that we took a trip to Oswego and enjoyed the 10 feet of lake effect......it compacted down to like 3 or 4 feet since it is fake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 1'' of freezing rain is possible here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Probably at least a repeat of two weeks ago when we had 3 to 5 inches generally in the hill towns. White Christmas assured barring some further northward shift which I doubt.... Even the amped Euro was all snow here. Very dense fog all around Duanesburg and stuck on 38F for about the last five hours here. I just got back from my nieces Christmas play and you can barely see the road. As tough a pattern as this is, I might take it if it meant another 2 foot+ storm like Valentine's Day that season.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Lots of cold air locked in across Quebec: http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=NY&rawsflag=3 Seems almost like an El Nino event ...think Jan. 1998, though nothing to compare to that. 1'' of freezing rain is possible here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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