Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Winter may be hard to find for a few weeks, but the old thread was ancient. This can be the new general thread with individual threads for certain events such as this weeks threat in northern areas. Hope to see all the stalwarts back on here as winter wx moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 looks like we have a shot at our first measurable snow in the ottawa-montreal corridor this week, but it could get sloppy. for that matter, first snow of any sorts period in the montreal area. they had a trace in ottawa last week. after that, perhaps some warmth at least for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 I just looked at the NAM 2 meter temps and the 0C line gets to a max. northward extent of MSS to YUL and then retreats south. The NAM was definitely showing the best cold air damming at 12Z of the various models, but it does well with that sort of thing. Even here..not out of the upper 30's tomorrow through Tuesday night... Lots of lovely cold rain I suppose unless it starts with a little FZRA/PL. The 10C air does break through here Wednesday, but at that point northern NY is under 0C. looks like we have a shot at our first measurable snow in the ottawa-montreal corridor this week, but it could get sloppy. for that matter, first snow of any sorts period in the montreal area. they had a trace in ottawa last week. after that, perhaps some warmth at least for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Despite the fact I'm in Toronto this year, I'll continue to contribute here, as well as in the Lakes and New England. Nice front went through here today. Forecast down to the low 20s tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Well you are a stones throw from the Niagara Frontier of Upstate NY now and numerous people post from around there. Despite the fact I'm in Toronto this year, I'll continue to contribute here, as well as in the Lakes and New England. Nice front went through here today. Forecast down to the low 20s tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 A balmy 64F today. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 59 here now... Relief tomorrow...knock 25F off most of today's highs. , A balmy 64F today. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Have posted this request a couple of times....but do any of you mets and/or serious amateurs have a winter outlook specific to our region to share? Needless to say, I'm particulalry interested in the Southern Tier of NYS. Starting to get the feeling that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 It took all night but finally down to 32F here. 32/25 to be exact. Nice upper teens in the National Capital Region I see. Re: long range winter forecasts. I don't even attempt it as a hobby. Look at last year and all the mild forecasts that busted. Have posted this request a couple of times....but do any of you mets and/or serious amateurs have a winter outlook specific to our region to share? Needless to say, I'm particulalry interested in the Southern Tier of NYS. Starting to get the feeling that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 take a look at Henry Margusity's musings today. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/why-so-warm-in-the-east-severe-wx-and-snow-in-the-forecast/58066 bust of a winter coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 ottawa breaks impressive snowfall record http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29929-ottawa-breaks-129-year-old-snowfall-record/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'm not sure if I follow his logic. A weak La Nina is usually colder/snowier than a stronger one. Last year's cold and snow was counter intuitive to the usual thinking for a moderate La Nina. The persistent negative NAO I think saved the winter...although it also screwed us out of some events in this region. take a look at Henry Margusity's musings today. http://www.accuweath...-forecast/58066 bust of a winter coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 LES snow is gonna come charging back next week. Big turn to colder a week from today. Until then snooze - except tonight's event in Northeast NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 1-2 inches of slap in the face snow here looks likely slap in the face because here are the numbers 3. november 22, 1994 2. november 23, 2011 it appears 1. november 26, 1902 those are the dates for latest snowfalls ever observed in montreal. looks like we will come up a few days short of the record for an inch of snow that will melt a day later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Take a ride south or southeast Actually like Memphramagog may get dumped pretty good. 1-2 inches of slap in the face snow here looks likely slap in the face because here are the numbers 3. november 22, 1994 2. november 23, 2011 it appears 1. november 26, 1902 those are the dates for latest snowfalls ever observed in montreal. looks like we will come up a few days short of the record for an inch of snow that will melt a day later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I havn't been paying attention... http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ042&warncounty=NYC113&firewxzone=NYZ042&local_place1=4+Miles+SSW+Chestertown+NY&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning 8-16 in the southern dacks??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 1-2 inches of slap in the face snow here looks likely slap in the face because here are the numbers 3. november 22, 1994 2. november 23, 2011 it appears 1. november 26, 1902 those are the dates for latest snowfalls ever observed in montreal. looks like we will come up a few days short of the record for an inch of snow that will melt a day later. Look on the bright side. The rest of the 1902-03 winter was pretty good in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 1-2 inches of slap in the face snow here looks likely slap in the face because here are the numbers 3. november 22, 1994 2. november 23, 2011 it appears 1. november 26, 1902 those are the dates for latest snowfalls ever observed in montreal. looks like we will come up a few days short of the record for an inch of snow that will melt a day later. I think your are in store for quite a bit more than a "slap in the face" snowfall with this event. This system is rather dynamic, and the banding features on the northern side of this system near the warm front will likely help to locally enhance totals across Central and Northern Vermont, potentially into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think your are in store for quite a bit more than a "slap in the face" snowfall with this event. This system is rather dynamic, and the banding features on the northern side of this system near the warm front will likely help to locally enhance totals across Central and Northern Vermont, potentially into Canada. well the afternoon models defintely are more interesting. i think N and western sections of the city will be about 1-2 inches and southern sections 2-4 inches. south of the city to the US border perhaps 3-6 inches. ottawa should be around 1 inch (1-3cm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 mixing in with snow at BUF...34 degrees..definitely unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Some mist started here at 32.7F. We'll have to see if the cold can mix down as heavier echoes move in. The main band is not yet here. The dew point is stil 27 so if its liquid then we are talking fzra. mixing in with snow at BUF...34 degrees..definitely unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Some mist started here at 32.7F. We'll have to see if the cold can mix down as heavier echoes move in. The main band is not yet here. The dew point is stil 27 so if its liquid then we are talking fzra. I know down here in the mid-hudson valley we werent expecting snow but thats exactly how it started.. 32-33 with mist/drizzle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Still mist, drizzle, but freezing now. Glaze forming on deck railings and says 31.3F outside. I know down here in the mid-hudson valley we werent expecting snow but thats exactly how it started.. 32-33 with mist/drizzle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Drizzle/Mist here in Downtown Albany. Looks like the precipitation rates should increase markedly in the next several hours, so we will see if there is any dynamical cooling that could briefly allow an isothermal layer close enough to the surface for wintry precipitation before the warm nose pokes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Now a steady FZRA here...looked but no snow flakes spotted as yet. Down to 30.6F. Lots of glaze forming. <quote name='phil882' timestamp='1322007020' post='1137419'] Drizzle/Mist here in Downtown Albany. Looks like the precipitation rates should increase markedly in the next several hours, so we will see if there is any dynamical cooling that could briefly allow an isothermal layer close enough to the surface for wintry precipitation before the warm nose pokes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Hovering around 35F here with moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 32.9 and would guess some light rain. Perhaps a little glaze around here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Looks like a pattern change coming next week, any Mets care to chime in on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 freezing rain has been falling for the past couple of hours here in northeast Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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