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Upstate NY/North Country -> Into Winter 2011-12


Logan11

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I just looked at the NAM 2 meter temps and the 0C line gets to a max. northward extent of MSS to YUL and then retreats south. The NAM was definitely showing the best cold air damming at 12Z of the various models, but it does well with that sort of thing.

Even here..not out of the upper 30's tomorrow through Tuesday night... Lots of lovely cold rain I suppose unless it starts with a little FZRA/PL. The 10C air does break through here Wednesday, but at that point northern NY is under 0C.

looks like we have a shot at our first measurable snow in the ottawa-montreal corridor this week, but it could get sloppy.

for that matter, first snow of any sorts period in the montreal area.

they had a trace in ottawa last week.

after that, perhaps some warmth at least for a few days.

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Well you are a stones throw from the Niagara Frontier of Upstate NY now and numerous people post from around there.

Despite the fact I'm in Toronto this year, I'll continue to contribute here, as well as in the Lakes and New England.

Nice front went through here today. Forecast down to the low 20s tonight.

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It took all night but finally down to 32F here. 32/25 to be exact. Nice upper teens in the National Capital Region I see. :)

Re: long range winter forecasts. I don't even attempt it as a hobby. Look at last year and all the mild forecasts that busted.

Have posted this request a couple of times....but do any of you mets and/or serious amateurs have a winter outlook specific to our region to share? Needless to say, I'm particulalry interested in the Southern Tier of NYS. Starting to get the feeling that.....

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I'm not sure if I follow his logic. A weak La Nina is usually colder/snowier than a stronger one. Last year's cold and snow was counter intuitive to the usual thinking for a moderate La Nina. The persistent negative NAO I think saved the winter...although it also screwed us out of some events in this region.

take a look at Henry Margusity's musings today.

http://www.accuweath...-forecast/58066

bust of a winter coming?

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1-2 inches of slap in the face snow here looks likely

slap in the face because here are the numbers

3. november 22, 1994

2. november 23, 2011 it appears

1. november 26, 1902

those are the dates for latest snowfalls ever observed in montreal.

looks like we will come up a few days short of the record for an inch of snow that will melt a day later. :thumbsdown:

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Take a ride south or southeast :) Actually like Memphramagog may get dumped pretty good.

1-2 inches of slap in the face snow here looks likely

slap in the face because here are the numbers

3. november 22, 1994

2. november 23, 2011 it appears

1. november 26, 1902

those are the dates for latest snowfalls ever observed in montreal.

looks like we will come up a few days short of the record for an inch of snow that will melt a day later. :thumbsdown:

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1-2 inches of slap in the face snow here looks likely

slap in the face because here are the numbers

3. november 22, 1994

2. november 23, 2011 it appears

1. november 26, 1902

those are the dates for latest snowfalls ever observed in montreal.

looks like we will come up a few days short of the record for an inch of snow that will melt a day later. :thumbsdown:

Look on the bright side. The rest of the 1902-03 winter was pretty good in Ottawa.

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1-2 inches of slap in the face snow here looks likely

slap in the face because here are the numbers

3. november 22, 1994

2. november 23, 2011 it appears

1. november 26, 1902

those are the dates for latest snowfalls ever observed in montreal.

looks like we will come up a few days short of the record for an inch of snow that will melt a day later. :thumbsdown:

I think your are in store for quite a bit more than a "slap in the face" snowfall with this event. This system is rather dynamic, and the banding features on the northern side of this system near the warm front will likely help to locally enhance totals across Central and Northern Vermont, potentially into Canada.

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I think your are in store for quite a bit more than a "slap in the face" snowfall with this event. This system is rather dynamic, and the banding features on the northern side of this system near the warm front will likely help to locally enhance totals across Central and Northern Vermont, potentially into Canada.

well the afternoon models defintely are more interesting.

i think N and western sections of the city will be about 1-2 inches and southern sections 2-4 inches. south of the city to the US border perhaps 3-6 inches.

ottawa should be around 1 inch (1-3cm)

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Some mist started here at 32.7F. We'll have to see if the cold can mix down as heavier echoes move in. The main band is not yet here. The dew point is stil 27 so if its liquid then we are talking fzra.

I know down here in the mid-hudson valley we werent expecting snow but thats exactly how it started.. 32-33 with mist/drizzle..

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Drizzle/Mist here in Downtown Albany. Looks like the precipitation rates should increase markedly in the next several hours, so we will see if there is any dynamical cooling that could briefly allow an isothermal layer close enough to the surface for wintry precipitation before the warm nose pokes in.

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Now a steady FZRA here...looked but no snow flakes spotted as yet. Down to 30.6F. Lots of glaze forming.

<quote name='phil882' timestamp='1322007020' post='1137419']

Drizzle/Mist here in Downtown Albany. Looks like the precipitation rates should increase markedly in the next several hours, so we will see if there is any dynamical cooling that could briefly allow an isothermal layer close enough to the surface for wintry precipitation before the warm nose pokes in.

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