bluewave Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 So far this looks like the deepest polar vortex to move just south of Alaska during this time of year. The models are printing out -500m range height anomalies for that area this week. The greatest -500mb height anomaly that I was able to find there was back in February 1999 in the -400m range. It would be great if someone has access to the raw data files listing the greatest negative height anomalies there and in the Northern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Chris, this pattern reminds me a lot of late November-early December 1988. In fact, 1988 is showing up a lot in the recent CIPS guidance: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/analog.php Here is the NARR link for 1988: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1988.html It had a very strong Alaskan vortex in the last 10 days of November. I think this December will ultimately end up looking like a 1954/1988 temp-styled map, for at least the beginning. Interestingly, it also had a +50mb QBO. I don't really like 1988-89 as a winter analog, however. But for the time being, it looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Pretty Interesting, 1988 is showing up as a MEAN GWO Analog too. There's alot of variability showing up in the analogs, even in some of the other custom models I've been into. It really is quite a Vortex for this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Cool, thanks for the image. The GWO orbiting from 4-5-8-1 in late November is pretty much a torch signal, especially for the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. This basically means the same thing in early December. You can get a decent cool anomaly both at the surface and aloft in a phase 5 response in early December across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Chris, this pattern reminds me a lot of late November-early December 1988. In fact, 1988 is showing up a lot in the recent CIPS guidance: http://www.eas.slu.e...COLD/analog.php Here is the NARR link for 1988: http://www.meteo.psu.../NARR/1988.html It had a very strong Alaskan vortex in the last 10 days of November. I think this December will ultimately end up looking like a 1954/1988 temp-styled map, for at least the beginning. Interestingly, it also had a +50mb QBO. I don't really like 1988-89 as a winter analog, however. But for the time being, it looks pretty good. Pretty Interesting, 1988 is showing up as a MEAN GWO Analog too. There's alot of variability showing up in the analogs, even in some of the other custom models I've been into. It really is quite a Vortex for this time of year... Yeah, it's really quite the contrast to the pattern that we saw around this time of year back in 2007 with the record ridging over Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I mentioned this in another thread, but the mega vortex in AK is going to lead to one of the coldest, if not the coldest November in Fairbanks history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 I mentioned this in another thread, but the mega vortex in AK is going to lead to one of the coldest, if not the coldest November in Fairbanks history. It's really impressive for so early in the season. http://www.nws.noaa....prodtype=public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's really impressive for so early in the season. http://www.nws.noaa....prodtype=public Six record lows in the last seven days, with the frigid cold looking to continue for at least another 4-5 days. I'd say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Six record lows in the last seven days, with the frigid cold looking to continue for at least another 4-5 days. I'd say so. True. I see Fairbanks is running a -10.1 degree departure for the month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Cool, thanks for the image. The GWO orbiting from 4-5-8-1 in late November is pretty much a torch signal, especially for the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. This basically means the same thing in early December. You can get a decent cool anomaly both at the surface and aloft in a phase 5 response in early December across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Is there any reading material you can offer on the GWO phase and temperature/precip anomalies. I find it very interesting but hard to find any good reading material on it, by just googling. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Is there any reading material you can offer on the GWO phase and temperature/precip anomalies. I find it very interesting but hard to find any good reading material on it, by just googling. Thanks! Try This, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/wb08_revised_final.pdf Bunch of composites and Data here.. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/gsdm.composites.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I believe there were a ton of record lows in early December 1988 across the NE U.S., thats surprising with that vortex in that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 From the NWS: The coldest early winter season week at Fairbanks... The past week has been record setting in many ways. Six new record low temperatures and 4 new record low maximum temperatures were established. It was the coldest early season week on record at Fairbanks. For the period from November 15-21 the average temperature at the Airport was -30.1 degrees. This is the coldest week during the month of November since 1930. Prior to 1930... there were two cold snaps during the last week of November that were colder. In 1909 and 1927 the average temperature was colder... but these two cold snaps occurred during the last 7 days of the month and did not start around mid-month like our current record setting cold snap. The cold weather will continue the remainder of the week with temperatures in the 15 to 30 below range much of the time. It is unlikely that there will be any additional record low temperatures this week. After the bitterly cold week it may seem hard to believe... but the normal high temperature this time of year is still 8 above with a low of 7 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 From the NWS: The coldest early winter season week at Fairbanks... The past week has been record setting in many ways. Six new record low temperatures and 4 new record low maximum temperatures were established. It was the coldest early season week on record at Fairbanks. For the period from November 15-21 the average temperature at the Airport was -30.1 degrees. This is the coldest week during the month of November since 1930. Prior to 1930... there were two cold snaps during the last week of November that were colder. In 1909 and 1927 the average temperature was colder... but these two cold snaps occurred during the last 7 days of the month and did not start around mid-month like our current record setting cold snap. The cold weather will continue the remainder of the week with temperatures in the 15 to 30 below range much of the time. It is unlikely that there will be any additional record low temperatures this week. After the bitterly cold week it may seem hard to believe... but the normal high temperature this time of year is still 8 above with a low of 7 below. Solid 30 degree departures..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I believe there were a ton of record lows in early December 1988 across the NE U.S., thats surprising with that vortex in that location. December 12th 1988 was a record breaking five degrees...But it was the coldest temperature of the season...Not many years had its coldest temperature before calendar winter started...2005 was the last time I think that happened... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 More from the NWS: To give some perspective the 500 mb height of 490 dm is an all-time record low 500 mb height at Fairbanks for the month of November. At McGrath...the 500 mb height of 483 dm breaks the all-time November record of 490 dm. http://www.wundergro...yName=Fairbanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 More from the NWS: To give some perspective the 500 mb height of 490 dm is an all-time record low 500 mb height at Fairbanks for the month of November. At McGrath...the 500 mb height of 483 dm breaks the all-time November record of 490 dm. http://www.wundergro...yName=Fairbanks I find it interesting that the NWS keeps in-house records like that. Good luck trying to find a list of minimum 500 mb heights for your local city online tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 I find it interesting that the NWS keeps in-house records like that. Good luck trying to find a list of minimum 500 mb heights for your local city online tho. I guess the average person would have to run a spreadsheet like Stu Ostro did in his blog a while back. It would be great if someone could expand on his list and post them online including record lows and more local data. http://www.weather.c...er/8_23680.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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