CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 They'll be a little bit of model waffling anyways. Doesn't look like anything concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It's not a surprise, looks closer to the euro now...maybe a bit warmer aloft. Its the scooter sneaky warm layer we need to watch, Still stays mainly over coastal areas where it was forcasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 33.6/24.6 here. Yeah I can see the FZRA threat if we can't pull off any snow due to upper air conditions. They'll be a little bit of model waffling anyways. Doesn't look like anything concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just checked upper air data at H8,H7 and H925 and it stays well south of here, H8 had a warm layer over extreme southern maine and grazed the coast so no significant changes from 12z, Also bumped qpf up from 1.25" to 1.50" for some areas here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just checked upper air data at H8,H7 and H925 and it stays well south of here, H8 had a warm layer over extreme southern maine and grazed the coast so no significant changes from 12z, Also bumped qpf up from 1.25" to 1.50" for some areas here Looks like a very tricky call for Portland and points just inland. The buzz around here all day has been "just rain here on the coast" -- no one seems to be expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like a very tricky call for Portland and points just inland. The buzz around here all day has been "just rain here on the coast" -- no one seems to be expecting much. Looks to be for portland and south back down the coast, That where the best chance is to changeover right now it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The 18z nam looks cooler in N mass...looks like it would be snow until 6z...but I'm probably wrong. Through 12z tomorrow it looks like all snow from MHT north to me... Looks like 18z nam ticked north, And a hair warmer, Trying to sneak that 546dm thickness further north.. Just got back from the dump. Temp was 37 at the top of the hill (on the truck therm., 1350' about a mile from home), 39.3/31 here at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 lol @ Atkison, NH being forecasted for 2-4" by GYX and MHT being forecasted for nothing but a brief mix at the start. Also, Hookset one town north of MHT has a point and click for 4-8" and MHT has "little or no snow accumulation." A little confusing if you are the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just got back from the dump. Temp was 37 at the top of the hill (1350' about a mile from home), 39.3/31 here at the Pit. I think you should probably trust dryslot lol. The upper levels around ORH near the start of the storm looked more supportive of snow to me, but it does look slightly warmer overall I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 lol @ Atkison, NH being forecasted for 2-4" by GYX and MHT being forecasted for nothing but a brief mix at the start. Also, Hookset one town north of MHT has a point and click for 4-8" and MHT has "little or no snow accumulation." A little confusing if you are the public. Some question marks in some areas and cut and dry in the others, Some places 20 miles north or south with the track could have some big implications in this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just checked upper air data at H8,H7 and H925 and it stays well south of here, H8 had a warm layer over extreme southern maine and grazed the coast so no significant changes from 12z, Also bumped qpf up from 1.25" to 1.50" for some areas here 750 is the dubious layer here. The NAM is so close to a crushing here...just a thin layer of 1-2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Some question marks in some areas and cut and dry in the others, Some places 20 miles north or south withthe track could have some big implications in this storm... Yeah I know...but it's still not right....Atkison,NH is on the coast and se of MHT and is forecasted for 2-4".... If Atkison gets that then MHT will have a minimum of 4" snowfall...and that would line up with gyx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Updated map .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 750 is the dubious layer here. The NAM is so close to a crushing here...just a thin layer of 1-2C. It's just wafer thin....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just got back from the dump. Temp was 37 at the top of the hill (on the truck therm., 1350' about a mile from home), 39.3/31 here at the Pit. No changes for you mike really.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Updated map .. Tasty--congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Updated map .. Moved the jackpot right onto Route 2, and put the lie to what I posted (6-9") a couple hours ago. Probably a few more wiggles to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Updated map .. Nothings really changed here, I should be within my totals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Updated map .. Ouch. Portland-south FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 750 is the dubious layer here. The NAM is so close to a crushing here...just a thin layer of 1-2C. A waffle north or south would have huge implication for the ones on the fence like yourself, You don't need any ticks north thats for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Ouch. Portland-south FTL. Even in the dead of winter they really have no use for the snow down in the kennebunk area, It has really no recreational value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah EURO definitely looked a lot better up this way and into southern Canada. I'm still thinking, as we usually do, we see some banding on the NW flank that leads to higher snowfall totals than expected. I'm still going with the BTV WRF frontogenesis progs but somewhere around here, BTV, northern 'Dacks, southern Canada, Coos County, NH east into western ME mountains will see a east-west oriented band of heavier snow that sort of just sits there while areas to the south dryslot with the mid-level centers. What we miss in the front-end thump may be made up by longer duration of steady precip.. and those heavier bands always seem to form on the QPF drop-off line. That's why MoneyPitMike always ends up doing well when he's freaking out about being on the edge of the heavier QPF, lol. There's always that NW flank where something funky happens. i'm a little concerned just how impressive and how fast moving the northern portion of the system turns out to be, with that redevelopment process to the S and E. the euro low positions and qpf maps (for northernmost sections) don't really add up in my books so i will proceed with caution for up here and towards the border. we will see what happens. they issued a generic weather warning here for 2-4 inches, of coruse because its the first snow and should be around rush hour in the AM. Warnings Metro Montréal - Laval 3:07 PM EST Tuesday 22 November 2011 Weather warning for Metro Montréal - Laval continued Snow on tap for the Wednesday morning rush hour. A low pressure system from the American Midwest will slide over New England tonight and Wednesday. An area of snow will then affect Southern Quebec, giving the first heavy snowfall of the season. General snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 centimetres (2-4 in) are expected, but could reach 15 cm (6 in) locally in southernmost areas. There is also a chance of freezing rain near the U.S. border. This event could make the morning rush hour more difficult than usual. Please refer to regional public forecasts for details pertaining to each region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The 12z EC ens mean has 1" QPF in a 6hr period from 6-12z tomorrow morning in a thin stripe from about SLK to IZG. Romp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 so...for shoots and giggles...if someone from MA wanted to drive to somewhere in NH for some heavy snow...where would you suggest that someone in MA drive to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 so...for shoots and giggles...if someone from MA wanted to drive to somewhere in NH for some heavy snow...where would you suggest that someone in MA drive to? I'd invite you up, but I have to leave early in the morning to pick up my truck. New engine FTW. Unfortunately it wouldn't surprise me if I end up with about 3-4" of snow followed by 1" of sleet anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Even in the dead of winter they really have no use for the snow down in the kennebunk area, It has really no recreational value I've seen a snowmobile trail along side of 95 somewhere near the rest stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The 12z EC ens mean has 1" QPF in a 6hr period from 6-12z tomorrow morning in a thin stripe from about SLK to IZG. Romp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 so...for shoots and giggles...if someone from MA wanted to drive to somewhere in NH for some heavy snow...where would you suggest that someone in MA drive to? Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I've seen a snowmobile trail along side of 95 somewhere near the rest stop Its that where they park the groomer...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 low-level cold from the high does mean some business...high of 37 in BUF today...36 and light rain...just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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