Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Barely.... Odd thing is the WWA for Berkshire County is strictly for FZRA. Is that you, Rick? Congratulations! 40.4/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Albany says "no snow for you western MA, but have a little ice." NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN ALBANY- WESTERN GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS... GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC...COBLESKILL... MIDDLEBURGH...ALTAMONT...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM 208 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS...HELDERBERGS AND BERKSHIRES. * HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Barely.... Odd thing is the WWA for Berkshire County is strictly for FZRA. Barely counts in horseshoes and handgrenades. With the hoisting of WAA in Berkshire, I have advisories up to my neighboring zones to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Thanks, much appreciated. A distinct possibility. I know this - I love my job, but I'd rather be in Limington for this than Portland. If i was not working tomorrow, I would probably try to rip back a beer for every 1" of snowfall, I think i would be pretty drunk at 1-3"/hr for 6 hrs............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Barely.... Odd thing is the WWA for Berkshire County is strictly for FZRA. Yeah--I think that ZR is the least likely issue with this. I would think the elevations north of the Mohawk Trail would be more of a snow issue than anything. Until the change tomorrow when it's raining. 40.3/30 When should the precip be starting in the western areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 If you look at the SPC WRF, I like how it depicts things unfolding. It's a 6 -8hr dump for much of the area, and then it gets a little showery or banded as the DS approaches across srn NH and srn ME. Further north, the bands hold on...probably where the biggest accumulations will be. The duration and QPF may be a bit less as shown...usually the case with these..but it looks to rip once it comes in. I guess it just depends on your location. That area near IZG over to Bethel, New Sharon, Livermore...somewhere around there looks to be in the sweet spot. 12z clown maps ticked a bit to the south, with the nicest colors IZG-Casco-LEW (and immediately abutting NH), and the Rumford to Skowhegan corridor more in the 6-9" colors. Only need to beat 3.7" for my #2 Nov snowfall here, 1998 onward, and 7.5" is current #1. Looks like a lock for at least 2nd and a good chance for the top. GYX snow tool now timed at 12:34 PM, looks just like the 6:36 AM version that put Farmington at 12", LEW 13", PWM 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 If i was not working tomorrow, I would probably try to rip back a beer for every 1" of snowfall, I think i would be pretty drunk at 1-3"/hr for 6 hrs............... Work cancel for you, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah--I think that ZR is the least likely issue with this. I would think the elevations north of the Mohawk Trail would be more of a snow issue than anything. Until the change tomorrow when it's raining. 40.3/30 When should the precip be starting in the western areas? I think the ZR threat is more of an elevation thing. An IP profile for the valleys looks a lot like a ZR one when you get above 1500 feet. I definitely made sure to add some for my southwestern NH zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Work cancel for you, too. It will be an early day, But don't want to be home with 10 daycare kids either.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think the ZR threat is more of an elevation thing. An IP profile for the valleys looks a lot like a ZR one when you get above 1500 feet. I definitely made sure to add some for my southwestern NH zones. It's interesting that they have the WAA including Southern Berkshire as well. I guess they might be extra cautious given what might--stressed might--be marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It will be an early day, But don't want to be home with 10 daycare kids either.....lol They should be cancelled, too:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That SPC wrf has been pretty darn good I've noticed. I like it. Great for banding, also terrific for severe wx events. Gets a little iffy at 36 hr but inside 24 it's amazing. Supposedly they're gonna be missing some runs in the near future and losing some consistency...a real shame. Could be a great tool but they haven't made it operational yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It's interesting that they have the WAA including Southern Berkshire as well. I guess they might be extra cautious given what might--stressed might--be marginal temps. I could see a brief mix of everything for you, but I think the warmer air aloft comes in pretty quickly over western mass. it starts to slow down considerable across srn VT and srn NH..especially with wetbulbing and dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm loving this radar right now...juicy! Really liking the pivot point on this and the axis of that heavier stuff out in the Chicago-Detroit area. That northwest flank/portion of the system is progged on all models to ride across the area from the northern Adirondacks through BTV and northern Greens across Coos County, NH and into NW ME. Its been showing up on a lot of the models as a hang-back area of QPF and some of the H7 frontogenesis progs show that lifting into NNE and then pivoting as its decays. That area and enhanced banding may make up for some of the lesser QPF values across the northern tier of the system... we may not have the front-end thump that areas further south do, but it should be a lot steadier throughout the system in the north while central areas deal with that mid level dryslot and turn more showery. This should be a good November snowfall for most of central and northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 BOX for tonight imby: Tonight: Rain, snow, and sleet likely before midnight, then rain, possibly mixed with sleet between midnight and 1am, then rain after 1am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 36. East wind between 5 and 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Maybe I can get a 10 minute period of sleet at 10pm before the switch lol. Temp is 45F right now, it would be nice if it was a little cooler. Congrats to those up north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Will, I know you mentioned you don't have to give forecasts to your clients yet, but did you mention anything for the high elevated ones in N ORH Co? Or did you not bother since best case would be a brief mix then over to all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Break out the RUC, lol. SE trend yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Will, I know you mentioned you don't have to give forecasts to your clients yet, but did you mention anything for the high elevated ones in N ORH Co? Or did you not bother since best case would be a brief mix then over to all rain? I do now. I didn't mention much except some mixed precip at the onset...maybe a brief burst of snow at the beginning, but it shouldn't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think I'm too far SE for the good stuff in Londonderry. I wonder how Stratton will make out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Qpf bumped north on the euro some hmm. yes i just noticed this would give 2-4 inches across the MTL metro, probably 2 inches where i live but 4 inches or so where i work on the south shore......that would be much better than the 1 inch spoiler will monitor radar closely. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 hmm. yes i just noticed this would give 2-4 inches across the MTL metro, probably 2 inches where i live but 4 inches or so where i work on the south shore......that would be much better than the 1 inch spoiler will monitor radar closely. lol Yeah EURO definitely looked a lot better up this way and into southern Canada. I'm still thinking, as we usually do, we see some banding on the NW flank that leads to higher snowfall totals than expected. I'm still going with the BTV WRF frontogenesis progs but somewhere around here, BTV, northern 'Dacks, southern Canada, Coos County, NH east into western ME mountains will see a east-west oriented band of heavier snow that sort of just sits there while areas to the south dryslot with the mid-level centers. What we miss in the front-end thump may be made up by longer duration of steady precip.. and those heavier bands always seem to form on the QPF drop-off line. That's why MoneyPitMike always ends up doing well when he's freaking out about being on the edge of the heavier QPF, lol. There's always that NW flank where something funky happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 They should be cancelled, too:) These parents would drive over live power lines to try to get there kids to daycare so they don't have to keep them, Its pretty sad really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think I'm too far SE for the good stuff in Londonderry. I wonder how Stratton will make out.. I grew up skiing down there and that area is notorious for over-performing during front-end thumps. I bet you'll do better than you expect there in southern VT... they tend to have higher average elevations, too, which helps. I bet it dumps there for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Break out the RUC, lol. SE trend yet? I knew someone would bang it......... What did the 12z KMA have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The 18z nam looks cooler in N mass...looks like it would be snow until 6z...but I'm probably wrong. Through 12z tomorrow it looks like all snow from MHT north to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like 18z nam ticked north, And a hair warmer, Trying to sneak that 546dm thickness further north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I grew up skiing down there and that area is notorious for over-performing during front-end thumps. I bet you'll do better than you expect there in southern VT... they tend to have higher average elevations, too, which helps. I bet it dumps there for a couple hours. Yeah I've noticed that as well. It's been an amazing stretch of thanksgiving weeks up here since like 2006. Its snowing almost every other year or more in some cases. Pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like 18z nam ticked north, And a hair warmer, Trying to sneak that 546dm thickness further north.. Really? It looked colder then 12z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like 18z nam ticked north, And a hair warmer, Trying to sneak that 546dm thickness further north.. It's not a surprise, looks closer to the euro now...maybe a bit warmer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Really? It looked colder then 12z to me. Not here, Warmer aloft, Its been quite cold all along.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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