Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Latest blurb in intermediate ALB discussion.... LATEST 12Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND ITS TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES...ARE A BIT ALARMING. WE MAY SEE SOME CHANGES TO HEADLINES AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ALONG WITH MESOSCALE IMPACTS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR VIA THE 2D FGEN. MORE DETAILS ONCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I hope you are right and I am wrong. I just think the models are more in the cold rain camp for Rte 2. Keene and Zucker (if he is at school) might do ok... Every model of latitude will make small steps in the temp profile, and ultiimately small steps in vaious p-type amounts. I think a trace along the Mohawk Trail and once you get up toe EEN and Socks an inch or two. 35.5/30, no "mostly sunny". Cloudy all day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Latest blurb in intermediate ALB discussion.... LATEST 12Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND ITS TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES...ARE A BIT ALARMING. WE MAY SEE SOME CHANGES TO HEADLINES AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ALONG WITH MESOSCALE IMPACTS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR VIA THE 2D FGEN. MORE DETAILS ONCE One of the best AFD phrases ever. No one here has spoken of anything alarming in them. What the heck are they seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Lock it Nam Snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 NH is a maddening forecast. Like has been mentioned the NAM lower levels have come in colder, but it still shows that warm layer sneaking in above 800 mb. 12z NAM soundings looked really IP for KCON, with the edge of the warm layer reaching almost to KLEB. It doesn't really even get to KPWM, only the boundary layer is in question if you take it verbatim. I agree with NH. I don't envy that...lol. Those warm layers higher up near 800mb or above always seem like they ruin the party a little earlier than we think. That's why I feel like Dendrite's area is really tough..even into parts of srn ME. If we get strong VVs, sometimes it can help offset the warmth by an hour or two. Obviously that would have an impact with warning vs advisory amounts. It also looks like those east slopes of SW NH may have some decent icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 One of the best AFD phrases ever. No one here has spoken of anything alarming in them. What the heck are they seeing? Because the lower levels are cold on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 How good are these wunderground snow maps? Unfortunately they don't have a thickness field so I can't see how warm it is aloft...but it actually has a considerable amount of snow for northern Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Because the lower levels are cold on the NAM. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I agree with NH. I don't envy that...lol. Those warm layers higher up near 800mb or above always seem like they ruin the party a little earlier than we think. That's why I feel like Dendrite's area is really tough..even into parts of srn ME. If we get strong VVs, sometimes it can help offset the warmth by an hour or two. Obviously that would have an impact with warning vs advisory amounts. It also looks like those east slopes of SW NH may have some decent icing. I agree, the elevated icing is something that goes underforecast quite often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This is pretty much as far north as the NAM gets the mixing/changeover into Northern New England. Interestingly..it has a bit of a dry slot moving through Central and Northern New England shortly thereafter..around 12z Wednesday..and then redevelopment afterwards. Gives the impression that it's a quick in-quick out thumper which is typical of these events. 2m temps at that frame: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_12z/temp23.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This is pretty much as far north as the NAM gets the mixing/changeover into Northern New England. Interestingly..it has a bit of a dry slot moving through Central and Northern New England shortly thereafter..around 12z Wednesday..and then redevelopment afterwards. Gives the impression that it's a quick in-quick out thumper which is typical of these events. 2m temps at that frame: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_12z/temp23.gif Front end 6hr thump.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Also, cool to see how the surface low initially tracks all the way up to near Lake Eerie, but then redevelops south of Long Island. They absolutely love to redevelop there. Almost every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 At first glance, GFS looks slightly cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Also, cool to see how the surface low initially tracks all the way up to near Lake Eerie, but then redevelops south of Long Island. They absolutely love to redevelop there. Almost every time. Yep, sometimes the GFS loves to intially drive them into the Berkshires, but almost all the time, there is a warm front with a triple point near NYC and this new low slides along the south coast. You can thank the low level cold for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS has come around as it looks like it ticked north from 6z,A smidge colder, And little more Qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I wrote most of my thoughts on the 06z (and early look at 12z NAM) suite in my last AFD update, but figured I would throw them here too, for those that don't troll the GYX discussions often. 06z GEFS shows a great signal for heavy, banded precip for northern New England. +3 SD PWAT air mass over southern New England being transported northward on a +3/+4 SD southerly 850 LLJ. This is slamming into the mid level front and -3/-4 SD cold conveyor. SREFs have been pretty consistent, and consistent in showing that the bulk of the impressive dynamics occur on the front end. Somewhat concerning as well since more precip occurring on the front end will less likely be tainted by warm air aloft that arrives later in the event. The Euro is also pretty bullish on the evaporational cooling potential, as it has the coldest wet bulbs of the entire model suite, especially across NH. It is the southern extent of my warnings that I'm most concerned with, for obvious reasons. But I do like my totals in the heavy band around 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS has come around as it looks like it ticked north from 6z,A smidge colder, And little more Qpf It looked a little cooler to me at 12z tomorrow, as compared to 06z. Also might be a hair faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I wrote most of my thoughts on the 06z (and early look at 12z NAM) suite in my last AFD update, but figured I would throw them here too, for those that don't troll the GYX discussions often. 06z GEFS shows a great signal for heavy, banded precip for northern New England. +3 SD PWAT air mass over southern New England being transported northward on a +3/+4 SD southerly 850 LLJ. This is slamming into the mid level front and -3/-4 SD cold conveyor. SREFs have been pretty consistent, and consistent in showing that the bulk of the impressive dynamics occur on the front end. Somewhat concerning as well since more precip occurring on the front end will less likely be tainted by warm air aloft that arrives later in the event. The Euro is also pretty bullish on the evaporational cooling potential, as it has the coldest wet bulbs of the entire model suite, especially across NH. It is the southern extent of my warnings that I'm most concerned with, for obvious reasons. But I do like my totals in the heavy band around 12 inches. It has the making of one of those things where the whole front end might be this one big blob of 30+ DBZs..lol, with some heavier bands in it. I think once that starts to move out, then perhaps we may see the more banded structure from the mid level deformation? Big ole QPF front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I wrote most of my thoughts on the 06z (and early look at 12z NAM) suite in my last AFD update, but figured I would throw them here too, for those that don't troll the GYX discussions often. 06z GEFS shows a great signal for heavy, banded precip for northern New England. +3 SD PWAT air mass over southern New England being transported northward on a +3/+4 SD southerly 850 LLJ. This is slamming into the mid level front and -3/-4 SD cold conveyor. SREFs have been pretty consistent, and consistent in showing that the bulk of the impressive dynamics occur on the front end. Somewhat concerning as well since more precip occurring on the front end will less likely be tainted by warm air aloft that arrives later in the event. The Euro is also pretty bullish on the evaporational cooling potential, as it has the coldest wet bulbs of the entire model suite, especially across NH. It is the southern extent of my warnings that I'm most concerned with, for obvious reasons. But I do like my totals in the heavy band around 12 inches. Nice, And i troll you dailey.... And also calling in my totals as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It looked a little cooler to me at 12z tomorrow, as compared to 06z. Also might be a hair faster. Pretty good consensus with all the models right now, Its time to lock it in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I wrote most of my thoughts on the 06z (and early look at 12z NAM) suite in my last AFD update, but figured I would throw them here too, for those that don't troll the GYX discussions often. 06z GEFS shows a great signal for heavy, banded precip for northern New England. +3 SD PWAT air mass over southern New England being transported northward on a +3/+4 SD southerly 850 LLJ. This is slamming into the mid level front and -3/-4 SD cold conveyor. SREFs have been pretty consistent, and consistent in showing that the bulk of the impressive dynamics occur on the front end. Somewhat concerning as well since more precip occurring on the front end will less likely be tainted by warm air aloft that arrives later in the event. The Euro is also pretty bullish on the evaporational cooling potential, as it has the coldest wet bulbs of the entire model suite, especially across NH. It is the southern extent of my warnings that I'm most concerned with, for obvious reasons. But I do like my totals in the heavy band around 12 inches. But you're right....the areas that are borderline and flip, might do so when the DS approaches and the precip becomes more showery in nature. Damage may be done at that point. It's going to be cool to see what happens. Good luck with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 FWIW, 12z NAM best frontogenesis is definitely shifted south a noticeable bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 10-18" SNOW TONIGHT AND TOMORROW UP NORTH? Wow, where have I been on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It looked a little cooler to me at 12z tomorrow, as compared to 06z. Also might be a hair faster. Yeah it bumped up qpf amounts north as well from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It has the making of one of those things where the whole front end might be this one big blob of 30+ DBZs..lol, with some heavier bands in it. I think once that starts to move out, then perhaps we may see the more banded structure from the mid level deformation? Big ole QPF front end thump. At first glance the dprog/dt on the 12z GFS is definitely a degree or so cooler at 850 in western NH and more QPF, 0.75" line shifted northward at 12z by 30-50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 At first glance the dprog/dt on the 12z GFS is definitely a degree or so cooler at 850 in western NH and more QPF, 0.75" line shifted northward at 12z by 30-50 miles. This is the fun stuff that Josh will miss. While he's down at ILM sipping Zima's and doing P90X and spending the shift trying to figure out when KILM will seabreeze..you have a major winter storm to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This is the fun stuff that Josh will miss. While he's down at ILM sipping Zima's and doing P90X and spending the shift trying to figure out when KILM will seabreeze..you have a major winter storm to deal with. During the busiest travel time of the year. No pressure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 FWIW, the GFS does have somewhat of a DS coming in after 12z, esp across srn NH and srn ME. It might only make precip more showery instead of steady mdt precip. Further north where it is all snow, it looks like they'll transition to more banded stuff perhaps with the backside frontogenesis and deformation. On the GFS anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 FWIW, the GFS does have somewhat of a DS coming in after 12z, esp across srn NH and srn ME. It might only make precip more showery instead of steady mdt precip. Further north where it is all snow, it looks like they'll transition to more banded stuff perhaps with the backside frontogenesis and deformation. On the GFS anyways. 12z GFS sounding is a full degree colder than 06z at KCON for 12z tomorrow morning. Very skinny warm layer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS sounding is a full degree colder than 06z at KCON for 12z tomorrow morning. Very skinny warm layer too. It seems the NH aspect of things, cooled down. That area near CON give or take 15 miles seems the most tricky part of the forecast for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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