ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 okay lol Don't get sensitive on me you Keene 1000-foot bastard. I know Rick replied to your post, but my post wasn't about him to replying to you. Mostly about those who expect a lot more than what is feasible over a long period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Don't get sensitive on me you Keene 1000-foot bastard. I know Rick replied to your post, but my post wasn't about him to replying to you. Mostly about those who expect a lot more than what is feasible over a long period. Well I am pretty young, but I think living on the Ct coast has sufficiently lowered my expectations for at least the next decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 All the models are spitting out 1-1.50" up this way depending on local, Euro looks colder here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Well I am pretty young, but I think living on the Ct coast has sufficiently lowered my expectations for at least the next decade You should be in Rangely Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 I get competitive horizontally, not laterally... You can't beat Maine or central/northern NH generally, but of course I'd like to bear Hubbdave or Pete. LOL ..but beating Pete is so tough. It is funny how snowfall becomes a "competition." haha...things we cannot control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 All the models are spitting out 1-1.50" up this way depending on local, Euro looks colder here as well What's the Euro got up this way and south towards Montpelier area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Well I am pretty young, but I think living on the Ct coast has sufficiently lowered my expectations for the time being CT coast hasn't really taken advantage of the good patterns these last 10 years except the last 3. They got screwed in many good winters (sometimes epic winters) close by like 2004-2005 and 2002-2003...relatively speaking of course. They were still good there, but not the absolute brilliant winters that happened not too far away. So they have been a bit snake bit until 2008-2009...and since then, they have made up some ground. They did really well in '09-'10 mostly because of the Dec '09 snow bomb...Mar '09 had a huge snow bomb there too...and last year was very good as well. So anyone who was exposed to the winters before that probably would wonder what all the fuss was about earlier this decade or even back tot he mid 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I will admit it.. I was silently hoping this would be a Saddleback and NE event only.. I am ashamed to admit it but it looks like there will be enough to share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 CT coast hasn't really taken advantage of the good patterns these last 10 years except the last 3. They got screwed in many good winters (sometimes epic winters) close by like 2004-2005 and 2002-2003...relatively speaking of course. They were still good there, but not the absolute brilliant winters that happened not too far away. So they have been a bit snake bit until 2008-2009...and since then, they have made up some ground. They did really well in '09-'10 mostly because of the Dec '09 snow bomb...Mar '09 had a huge snow bomb there too...and last year was very good as well. So anyone who was exposed to the winters before that probably would wonder what all the fuss was about earlier this decade or even back tot he mid 1990s. Yeah I wasn't sure if that was the case not having checked the stats, but my general perception was they didn't do as well even vs climo than other parts of the region. I don't have a good snow memory but the past few years have definitely changed my perception of what's possible on the CT shore. Prior to that I remember only 2 or 3 12" events since '97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 What's the Euro got up this way and south towards Montpelier area? .50" extreme northern Vt all the way to 1.25" extreme southern VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 I will admit it.. I was silently hoping this would be a Saddleback and NE event only.. I am ashamed to admit it but it looks like there will be enough to share Are you even up there? haha. I'm liking where we are up here being 36 hours out but things can still change in a hurry... just over 1" QPF on the NAM (1.4" south at MPV) and around 0.75" on the GFS (1.0" to the SE at MPV). BTV WRF still showing around 1.5" up this way but its a little juiced up. What I'm really liking though is some of the frontogenesis plots showing a nice band lifting northward through New England but stalling from northern VT back towards Saddleback/Rangley oriented WSW to ENE... and then it pivots and curls with the northern extent of the heavier QPF (just south of the rapid cut-off of liquid amounts) being basically the northern border of this band. I think we could do well here to the north if we get that band on the north and northwest flank of the storm to set up like some of the fronto products show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This is perfect for the northern NY/NE ski areas. Gets them a good T-Day weekend and then who cares if it torches because they don't do much business for the next week anyway. Just get back online for the following weekend. What's the Euro got up this way and south towards Montpelier area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah I wasn't sure if that was the case not having checked the stats, but my general perception was they didn't do as well even vs climo than other parts of the region. I don't have a good snow memory but the past few years have definitely changed my perception of what's possible on the CT shore. Prior to that I remember only 2 or 3 12" events since '97. The SE CT snow hole has been amplified amongst general opinion because they got screwed so bad before these last 3 years...even vs their normal climo. So this has sort of normalized it a bit more. Its still a horrible screw hole compared to almost every other spot in SNE, but its not as bad as some make it out to be. These last 3 winters help to prove it. Longterm climo can help even it out. I like to use 50 years or so. There is so much variance in snowfall that even a 30 year set is pretty wild when you take the standard dev. Even 50 years is wild, but less so of course. But you cannot just keep going back because eventually you get to the end ofthe LIA which skews things and of course we are no longer homogeneous in records pre-1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 .50" extreme northern Vt all the way to 1.25" extreme southern VT Nice... sounds like the GFS and I think that's the way to go. As I just wrote in my previous post, I think there may be a band that pivots somewhere up here on the north and northwest flank of the storm so someone on the north or northwest side will do nicely. Just need to try to get into something resembling the deformation stretching from western ME all the way back into the Adirondacks of NY and there should be some west-east oriented bands that then pivot and collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 This is perfect for the northern NY/NE ski areas. Gets them a good T-Day weekend and then who cares if it torches because they don't do much business for the next week anyway. Just get back online for the following weekend. Haha we were talking about that in our operations meeting today... get open, get some snow to get through the weekend, then close Monday-Friday midweek next week. No one cares, there's no one here this time of year anyway. Mountain will actually save money, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Nice... sounds like the GFS and I think that's the way to go. As I just wrote in my previous post, I think there may be a band that pivots somewhere up here on the north and northwest flank of the storm so someone on the north or northwest side will do nicely. Just need to try to get into something resembling the deformation stretching from western ME all the way back into the Adirondacks of NY and there should be some west-east oriented bands that then pivot and collapse. Right now we have good agreement on the Nam,GFS and Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Are you even up there? haha. I'm liking where we are up here being 36 hours out but things can still change in a hurry... just over 1" QPF on the NAM (1.4" south at MPV) and around 0.75" on the GFS (1.0" to the SE at MPV). BTV WRF still showing around 1.5" up this way but its a little juiced up. What I'm really liking though is some of the frontogenesis plots showing a nice band lifting northward through New England but stalling from northern VT back towards Saddleback/Rangley oriented WSW to ENE... and then it pivots and curls with the northern extent of the heavier QPF (just south of the rapid cut-off of liquid amounts) being basically the northern border of this band. I think we could do well here to the north if we get that band on the north and northwest flank of the storm to set up like some of the fronto products show. Nope but it just makes me feel good plus it should still (hopefully) be around when I get up there in in 6 or 7 days. Things look good as long as it doesn't go any farther south. Also even if we do get good totals, from a skiing perspective I wouldn't have minded some sleet and 1"-1.5" qpf. But that is just getting greedy, should be a good storm. You think it will stick around? I will be sad to miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Right now we have good agreement on the Nam,GFS and Euro.... Canadian is also right in that ballpark... looks juicier than GFS/EURO though adding up the 6-hourlies. Though its hard to tell exactly with the crappy graphics. Somewhere between NAM and GFS. Overall, very good agreement between the major models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The SE CT snow hole has been amplified amongst general opinion because they got screwed so bad before these last 3 years...even vs their normal climo. So this has sort of normalized it a bit more. Its still a horrible screw hole compared to almost every other spot in SNE, but its not as bad as some make it out to be. These last 3 winters help to prove it. Longterm climo can help even it out. I like to use 50 years or so. There is so much variance in snowfall that even a 30 year set is pretty wild when you take the standard dev. Even 50 years is wild, but less so of course. But you cannot just keep going back because eventually you get to the end ofthe LIA which skews things and of course we are no longer homogeneous in records pre-1950. Yep I have often thought about that, as there isn't really a great meteorological reason for the averages to be so much lower around here. Missing out on that 30" storm the Cape had in 04-05 I think it was was just bad luck. We can get storms like that and on a 30 year period just 1 storm like that can raise the average 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Canadian is also right in that ballpark... looks juicier than GFS/EURO though adding up the 6-hourlies. Though its hard to tell exactly with the crappy graphics. Somewhere between NAM and GFS. Overall, very good agreement between the major models right now. Thats good, Those canadien graphics are terrible, They need a serious upgrade, Trying to think of all the ways this can go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Nice to see SLK at 12F now. 19F here. Waste to see such cold and then cold rain....hope it clouds over earlier and we can cap the daytime heating. Anything helps. Thats good, Those canadien graphics are terrible, They need a serious upgrade.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Nope but it just makes me feel good plus it should still (hopefully) be around when I get up there in in 6 or 7 days. Things look good as long as it doesn't go any farther south. Also even if we do get good totals, from a skiing perspective I wouldn't have minded some sleet and 1"-1.5" qpf. But that is just getting greedy, should be a good storm. You think it will stick around? I will be sad to miss it. All that snow might be gone in 7 days, lol. What a torch after this storm. Probably a lot of patches in Rangley in the shade though...tough to completely melt out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Don't get sensitive on me you Keene 1000-foot bastard. I know Rick replied to your post, but my post wasn't about him to replying to you. Mostly about those who expect a lot more than what is feasible over a long period. late nights getting to me haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 Nope but it just makes me feel good plus it should still (hopefully) be around when I get up there in in 6 or 7 days. Things look good as long as it doesn't go any farther south. Also even if we do get good totals, from a skiing perspective I wouldn't have minded some sleet and 1"-1.5" qpf. But that is just getting greedy, should be a good storm. You think it will stick around? I will be sad to miss it. I'm not sure, I doubt it sticks around below 1,500ft at least, and probably melt out even higher up than that given the next 7 days after it. Either way, all depends on how much snow an area does end up getting. There are some big QPF bombs though on the meso-scale models. Globals are a bit less. SREFS at 21z looked to bump northward for this area, so that was good. The Canadian Regional run to 48 hours is a big QPF bomb... look at that 1.75"+ over the northern Adirondacks in that band that sets up to the NW flank of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm not sure, I doubt it sticks around below 1,500ft at least, and probably melt out even higher up than that given the next 7 days after it. Either way, all depends on how much snow an area does end up getting. There are some big QPF bombs though on the meso-scale models. Globals are a bit less. SREFS at 21z looked to bump northward for this area, so that was good. The Canadian Regional run to 48 hours is a big QPF bomb... look at that 1.75"+ over the northern Adirondacks in that band that sets up to the NW flank of the system. This pattern coming up after the storm is the worst late Nov or early Dec pattern ive seen since 2006. Just horrific. I really feel for the ski resorts up there because its cheap to get dumped on with like 10" of high water content snow which would be great for bases only to get wiped out or severely damaged just days later. This pattern really sucks. Hopefully this storm will at least be a nice buffer for the man made snow...lots of water in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 This pattern coming up after the storm is the worst late Nov or early Dec pattern ive seen since 2006. Just horrific. I really feel for the ski resorts up there because its cheap to get dumped on with like 10" of high water content snow which would be great for bases only to get wiped out or severely damaged just days later. This pattern really sucks. Hopefully this storm will at least be a nice buffer for the man made snow...lots of water in it. Yeah its very ugly. To the point where we feel confident doing some quick maintenance on some snowmaking equipment next week where we'll take the system off-line for a few days. Not too often you are able to completely remove key parts of your snowmaking system and not worry about missed opportunities in late November/early December, lol. I think we'll see a lot of spots closed Monday-Friday next week, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like perhaps a nudge south in guidance? That puts Dendrite over to Dryslot and I guess Ekster into some front end goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I wish I was having Thanksgiving at my parent's vacation place in Center Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It still seems like the area enar IZG over to Bingham....right along the eastern slopes, are gonna get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Man Dendrite is still on the edge. It looks like warming aloft proceeds nicely, but VVs ripping him a new one pretty much slow or stop it for about 3-4 hrs before moving ne again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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