40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm not saying route 2 corridor, but there is still time for this to shift south some more, still time for this to shift North some more.... We are still about 24-30 hours away... I think its going to be a pretty good Nowcast event from SNH/VT to Central NH/VT.... Climo does not favor, but we could get one of these deals where it never changes over in spots, then Dryslots, we could get No snow at all at the start in places that were supposed to get 2-4 inches... Maybe Tip's "colder atmosphere" will rear its head like it did in the october storm. Should be interesting following 12z suite tomorrow, and then the hourly models tomorrow night. These SWFEs are always more of a nowcast anyways. Its interesting seeing the GFS cold tonight, which is typically warm in these events. Sure...never thought otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm expecting a lot of pings. Verbatim this run is all snow here during the meaningful QPF. This will be a healthy surge of WAA above H8 though so being on the edge 24-36hr out is probably not the place to be. A burst of snow followed by some pings/flakes/drops still looks good for the Lakes Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It's definitely faster in and out than the NAM..... The vast bulk of the qpf falls in a 12 hour period. All I can says is when I see a wall of heavy precip coming in like that funky things can happen. Verbatim this run is all snow here during the meaningful QPF. This will be a healthy surge of WAA above H8 though so being on the edge 24-36hr out is probably not the place to be. A burst of snow followed by some pings/flakes/drops still looks good for the Lakes Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Verbatim this run is all snow here during the meaningful QPF. This will be a healthy surge of WAA above H8 though so being on the edge 24-36hr out is probably not the place to be. A burst of snow followed by some pings/flakes/drops still looks good for the Lakes Region. Surge stays south here, H925 looks good as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We shall see if the euro stays the course @0z Crack 20F, Down to 19F here for the 1st time this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We shall see if the euro stays the course @0z I like where we are. Big front end thump before it gets warm (probably never really will anyway). 4 to 8 or 5 to 10 looks reasonable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I like where we are. Big front end thump before it gets warm (probably never really will anyway). 4 to 8 or 5 to 10 looks reasonable for us. If this wasn't November with a torch on the doorstep, I'd be a lot more jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I like where we are. Big front end thump before it gets warm (probably never really will anyway). 4 to 8 or 5 to 10 looks reasonable for us. Yeah looks good, Looks like H8 stays south GFS came in colder which is good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 If this wasn't November with a torch on the doorstep, I'd be a lot more jealous. I like big events...whether it sticks around or not at this point I could care less. To have a 13 incher the day before halloween, then potentially a 5-10 incher the day before t-giving floors me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I like big events...whether it sticks around or not at this point I could care less. Oh I wasn't saying I'm not jealous...I def am of anyone who gets >6"...I'd love that too. But in November my expectations are bit more muted, so the hopes were never high...Maine is definitely higher climo than here in November. Plus I like snow pack, so the oncoming torch makes it a little easier too. If it was 3 weeks from now, I'd be a lot more bummed. I really have no right to complain anyway after getting 17" of snow on Oct 29-30 after getting a crap 1.8" on Oct 27 to boot. I think my Oct snowfall stuck around about 3 days longer than Feb 2006 did, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just goes to show that a crappy pattern can still produce especially this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just goes to show that a crappy pattern can still produce especially this early Any crappy pattern with transient cold can produce if its well timed enough...this one is about the worst I have seen, but the cold shot was perfectly timed. You could probably replicate this long wave pattern another 100 times and maybe twice it would produce a snow event greater than advisory...its a nice break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Oh I wasn't saying I'm not jealous...I def am of anyone who gets >6"...I'd love that too. But in November my expectations are bit more muted, so the hopes were never high...Maine is definitely higher climo than here in November. Plus I like snow pack, so the oncoming torch makes it a little easier too. If it was 3 weeks from now, I'd be a lot more bummed. I really have no right to complain anyway after getting 17" of snow on Oct 29-30 after getting a crap 1.8" on Oct 27 to boot. I think my Oct snowfall stuck around about 3 days longer than Feb 2006 did, lol. Yeah, looks like we may even things up with you guys down there somewhat, Kind of bummed here we missed out on the oct snows that you guys had, But we still got 6" here and it was good to see snow that early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Any crappy pattern with transient cold can produce if its well timed enough...this one is about the worst I have seen, but the cold shot was perfectly timed. You could probably replicate this long wave pattern another 100 times and maybe twice it would produce a snow event greater than advisory...its a nice break. You, Scooter and Ryan have been kind of preaching that we can still see snow in this crappy pattern right along, Thers a lot on here the last few days see some of you guys concerns and turn into it will never snow the rest of the winter, We are looking to luck out, But i don't expect for this to become the norm, This is all pretty amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah, looks like we may even things up with you guys down there somewhat, Kind of bummed here we missed out on the oct snows that you guys had, But we still got 6" here and it was good to see snow that early I got 5" in Plymouth in the October storm while my parents in Keene got 20", and this time I'll be in Keene while Plymouth is getting a decent snowfall. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I got 5" in Plymouth in the October storm while my parents in Keene got 20", and this time I'll be in Keene while Plymouth is getting a decent snowfall. Go figure Bad timing Sam, Still seeing 2 significant events this early, In this pattern is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I have to chuckle a bit at people feeling they got shafted a bit with only 5 or 6 inches in October. I got 4" (but twice) in three days so that was pretty anomalous. If we ever get back into a 1980's type cycle again weenies in here are going to be apoplectic with frustration. Year after year back then we considered 6" a pretty darn respectable snowfall on balance. I got 5" in Plymouth in the October storm while my parents in Keene got 20", and this time I'll be in Keene while Plymouth is getting a decent snowfall. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I have to chuckle a bit at people feeling they got shafted a bit with only 5 or 6 inches in October. I got 4" (but twice) in three days so that was pretty anomalous. If we ever get back into a 1980's type cycle again weenies in here are going to be apoplectic with frustration. Year after year back then we considered 6" a pretty darn respectable snowfall on balance. Most of the younger weenies do not understand climo in its absolute sense. They can't fathom having like 7 out of 8 below normal for snowfall. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm honestly not that jealous.....I was of the halloween one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm honestly not that jealous.....I was of the halloween one. You definitly had a better chance at seeing more snow in that one, This one from the get go did not look good not even here until today really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You definitly had a better chance at seeing more snow in that one, This one from the get go did not look good not even here until today really To get screwed out of an October HECS in large part because of poor snowgrowth and a dry sliver is unfathomable. That trumps Dec 1996 for me, but over the course of past couple of years, I have matured a bit and didn't throw the tantrum that I would have a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 To get screwed out of an October HECS in large part because of poor snowgrowth and a dry sliver is unfathomable. That trumps Dec 1996 for me, but over the couple of years, I have matured a bit and didn't throw the tantrum that I would have a few years ago. Yeah, It always sucks and no one likes to miss out on something that historic, I don't get all twisted up, Maturity plays a big factor and you learn over the years that most of these storms come hyped but don't usually come to fruition, They have a big fail rate especially up here, There were plenty that were pitching fits though, I can only imagine what it will be like when we are in a active storm pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Most of the younger weenies do not understand climo in its absolute sense. They can't fathom having like 7 out of 8 below normal for snowfall. It happens. whoa whoa whoa. First, I never said I thought I got shafted. And climo aside, when you miss an historic event at your home a little begrudging is allowed. I never complained about 5" in Plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 whoa whoa whoa. First, I never said I thought I got shafted. And climo aside, when you miss an historic event at your home a little begrudging is allowed. I never complained about 5" in Plymouth Why are you replying to me on this? I never accused you of being one of those people Sam, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Why are you replying to me on this? I never accused you of being one of those people Sam, lol. I wouldn't complain, I am old enough to be peoples dad on here.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I get competitive horizontally, not laterally... You can't beat Maine or central/northern NH generally, but of course I'd like to bear Hubbdave or Pete. LOL ..but beating Pete is so tough. I'm honestly not that jealous.....I was of the halloween one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I get competitive horizontally, not laterally... You can't beat Maine or central/northern NH generally, but of course I'd like to bear Hubbdave or Pete. LOL ..but beating Pete is so tough. I got you and Will in 2008-09...I can die happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I got you and Will in 2008-09...I can die happy. '05-'06 and '08-'09 i got him. I will usually beat him about 35% of the time because we aren't far enough apart in seasonal average and the covariance of our snowfall is low enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Why are you replying to me on this? I never accused you of being one of those people Sam, lol. okay lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Like the Euro........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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