wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I wish I was more knowledgeable. Trying to figure what is going to happen in the Plymouth NH area is so tough. I guess looking at the NAM its snow to ice pellets to maybe a cold rain and back to snow. It will be precipating so hard that changeover time makes all the difference in accums. I guess 2-4" would be a safe guess. Seems the NAM shifted things north 30 miles or is it that the low is a bit deeper and that is why the warmth surges north more? I should have been a Met and not a photographer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I wish I was more knowledgeable. Trying to figure what is going to happen in the Plymouth NH area is so tough. I guess looking at the NAM its snow to ice pellets to maybe a cold rain and back to snow. It will be precipating so hard that changeover time makes all the difference in accums. I guess 2-4" would be a safe guess. Seems the NAM shifted things north 30 miles or is it that the low is a bit deeper and that is why the warmth surges north more? I should have been a Met and not a photographer! probably a massive snow storm since I'm going home to Keene tomorrow afternoon 2-4" is a good guess, especially given the Plymouth snow hole. Surrounding higher elevation areas I think have a shot at 3-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 probably a massive snow storm since I'm going home to Keene tomorrow afternoon 2-4" is a good guess, especially given the Plymouth snow hole. Surrounding higher elevation areas I think have a shot at 3-7" Thanks, I am 6 miles SSW of downtown Plymouth but much higher, 1100 feet so maybe I could see more but its going to be a latitude thing too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Thanks, I am 6 miles SSW of downtown Plymouth but much higher, 1100 feet so maybe I could see more but its going to be a latitude thing too! I'll put you down for 3" - 6" ... like I'm taking orders for snowfall. Okay who's next? "Yes, I'll have 10 inches of low ratio snow, hold the sleet." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'll put you down for 3" - 6" ... like I'm taking orders for snowfall. Okay who's next? "Yes, I'll have 10 inches of low ratio snow, hold the sleet." Sam, Staying with your 1st map for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Sam, Staying with your 1st map for now? For now. Ready to bump north a notch, with mention of more sleet in the mix across southern portions of the accumulation region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 For now. Ready to bump north a notch, with mention of more sleet in the mix across southern portions of the accumulation region I was gonna say, looks like snow stays north of the MA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'd be surprised if you got anything but snow there. I wish I was more knowledgeable. Trying to figure what is going to happen in the Plymouth NH area is so tough. I guess looking at the NAM its snow to ice pellets to maybe a cold rain and back to snow. It will be precipating so hard that changeover time makes all the difference in accums. I guess 2-4" would be a safe guess. Seems the NAM shifted things north 30 miles or is it that the low is a bit deeper and that is why the warmth surges north more? I should have been a Met and not a photographer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Nam clown maps are sick........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Link? Nam clown maps are sick........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 North Conway, Bethel smoked Ginxy in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Totals look a tad high but the jackpot areas look spot on imo. Maybe a slight nudge n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I was gonna say, looks like snow stays north of the MA border Yea, that was the issue I had with his map....figured on a correction back to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Link? Dendrite posted them, I am on my sons laptop abd don't have acess to all my toys.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This event reminds me a bit of an event that occurred on 11/25-26/08 while I was still in Plymouth, NH, although the synoptic setup is different. I remember getting 6 inches of heavy wet paste in town that was virtually unforecast the night before as it was supposed to be rain. However, temps wet bulbed down in Plymouth just cold enough to get snow for several hours before rain. The mid-levels were marginally cold enough for a while too. I remember driving home for Thanksgiving on NH 118 from Rumney to Canaan that day. The high spots around Dorchester had 10", by the time I got to Canaan and Enfield, there was nothing. This is type of gradient we could see with this event in central NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We'll see.. It comes in hard and fast. Dynamics are liable to cool the column and give a six hour period of +SN a little south of where the model thinks. IE route 2 corridor in MA. Yea, that was the issue I had with his map....figured on a correction back to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I saw ...gives me only 2" I need a 30 mile shift south. Dendrite posted them, I am on my sons laptop abd don't have acess to all my toys.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Nam clown maps are sick........... Cut them in half and you're still in the money Jeff. NAM 850 is about the same as 12z but the boundry is much cooler. More northerly and less easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Dendrite posted them, I am on my sons laptop abd don't have acess to all my toys.....lol My Nook is more conducive to reading AmWx whilst sitting on my arse watching the Pats 72 yd punt return for a TD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Totals look a tad high but the jackpot areas look spot on imo. Maybe a slight nudge n. Yea, you and I have been on the same page with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We'll see.. It comes in hard and fast. Dynamics are liable to cool the column and give a six hour period of +SN a little south of where the model thinks. IE route 2 corridor in MA. I wish, but thinking nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We'll see.. It comes in hard and fast. Dynamics are liable to cool the column and give a six hour period of +SN a little south of where the model thinks. IE route 2 corridor in MA. Assuming the model is not a hair too far N. RT corridor will not get a 6 hour period of S+...I think best case scenario is an inch or two for the hills of n ORH co and even that is dubious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 RT corridor will not get a 6 hour period of S+...I think best case scenario is an inch or two for the hills of n ORH co and even that is dubious. Maybe JJAshb gets an inch, but this is a CNE event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 GFS is cold. Some snow for Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Cut them in half and you're still in the money Jeff. NAM 850 is about the same as 12z but the boundry is much cooler. More northerly and less easterly flow. Yeah, Nam is overdone with the precip I would take half in nov anytime, Does not look like it will last with the torch thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 GFS is cold. Some snow for Ray? Yeah, Cosideraby colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 RT corridor will not get a 6 hour period of S+...I think best case scenario is an inch or two for the hills of n ORH co and even that is dubious. I'm not saying route 2 corridor, but there is still time for this to shift south some more, still time for this to shift North some more.... We are still about 24-30 hours away... I think its going to be a pretty good Nowcast event from SNH/VT to Central NH/VT.... Climo does not favor, but we could get one of these deals where it never changes over in spots, then Dryslots, we could get No snow at all at the start in places that were supposed to get 2-4 inches... Maybe Tip's "colder atmosphere" will rear its head like it did in the october storm. Should be interesting following 12z suite tomorrow, and then the hourly models tomorrow night. These SWFEs are always more of a nowcast anyways. Its interesting seeing the GFS cold tonight, which is typically warm in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah, Cosideraby colder I'm expecting a lot of pings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah the GFS has my front end idea, but that's about it...doesn't deepen in and draw any cold air back into the back side of it to speak of. I'm not saying route 2 corridor, but there is still time for this to shift south some more, still time for this to shift North some more.... We are still about 24-30 hours away... I think its going to be a pretty good Nowcast event from SNH/VT to Central NH/VT.... Climo does not favor, but we could get one of these deals where it never changes over in spots, then Dryslots, we could get No snow at all at the start in places that were supposed to get 2-4 inches... Maybe Tip's "colder atmosphere" will rear its head like it did in the october storm. Should be interesting following 12z suite tomorrow, and then the hourly models tomorrow night. These SWFEs are always more of a nowcast anyways. Its interesting seeing the GFS cold tonight, which is typically warm in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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