powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 This may be the first night we break 20F here, Cold high.........ftw Yeah already 24F outside and its only 5:45pm... Borderwx said in the NNE thread that he is now under 20F. Check out the BTV WRF, lol. This model knows the topography and look at the spine of the Greens with 1.5-2" QPF. This is only a 12-hour total, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 LOL Mike is the "QPF Queen"... Alas, I have no issue with qpf on this. It's the fact that it's rain. If I"m wrong I'm wrong. But I seriously do not see this bringing anything wintry into Mass save Pete's worksite perhaps. 36.0/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah already 24F outside and its only 5:45pm... Borderwx said in the NNE thread that he is now under 20F. Check out the BTV WRF, lol. This model knows the topography and look at the spine of the Greens with 1.5-2" QPF. This is only a 12-hour total, too. Pretty sick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's a beautiful dance he does. He congratulates everyone else for being the jackpot on the 00z JMA. When it looks more likely that GC will get in on the action he openly frets about the diminishing QPF (Messenger does his best to fan these flames by constant posting about the SE trend and convective feedback.) Then as the precip breaks out to our SW he fixates on the radar looking too spotty or wrong trajectory. Then come the excited posts between he and I as the heavy snow sets up over us. After houirs of SN+ obs he falls asleep and then awakens to make astonished posts about the new 24" that has fallen. It really is a wonderful thing and I look forward to it repeating over and over again this Winter. That's about rigiht. Unfortuatnely, I really don't see this one being in our wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 18z ensembles similar to the op run maybe a tic south nothing significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah already 24F outside and its only 5:45pm... Borderwx said in the NNE thread that he is now under 20F. Check out the BTV WRF, lol. This model knows the topography and look at the spine of the Greens with 1.5-2" QPF. This is only a 12-hour total, too. thats keep us in the 0.5 - 0.75 range for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 thats keep us in the 0.5 - 0.75 range for now Where exactly are you again? 25 miles north of VT towards Montreal or out towards the eastern townships? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's a beautiful dance he does. He congratulates everyone else for being the jackpot on the 00z JMA. When it looks more likely that GC will get in on the action he openly frets about the diminishing QPF (Messenger does his best to fan these flames by constant posting about the SE trend and convective feedback.) Then as the precip breaks out to our SW he fixates on the radar looking too spotty or wrong trajectory. Then come the excited posts between he and I as the heavy snow sets up over us. After houirs of SN+ obs he falls asleep and then awakens to make astonished posts about the new 24" that has fallen. It really is a wonderful thing and I look forward to it repeating over and over again this Winter. You should mention the hundreds of HRRR posted by messenger to support his hypothesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 18z ensembles similar to the op run maybe a tic south nothing significant And so the trend ends. No surprise there. Congrats on your snow! 35.6/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Where exactly are you again? 25 miles north of VT towards Montreal or out towards the eastern townships? montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Prelim map to spice up the model lull period ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Prelim map to spice up the model lull period ... Sam's teasing me by having the 2-4" slot 5 miles away from me. Seriously though, the map looks okay to me. I'm curious to see how coastal Maine plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Prelim map to spice up the model lull period ... Not a bad shot at all. I'd probably nudge it n by 20 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 And so the trend ends. No surprise there. Congrats on your snow! 35.6/21 Thanks mike, I will enjoy whatever we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Prelim map to spice up the model lull period ... Nice map Sam..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 lol it wasn't intentional Mike. I can redraw the line a few pixels south if you want Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 HPC'S take...... ...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE PAST 3-4 DAYS...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND OF THE SURFACE FEATURE DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LENDS ITSELF TO THE NOTION THAT THE COLD SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE AND THE PROJECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL FORECAST OVER THE GREEN/WHITE MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE WERE IN GOOD ORDER AS COLD ADVECTION MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WAVE. WITH THE SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK...MORE UP GLIDE FROM OCEAN TO INLAND AREAS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND PROGS/MODELS RAMPED UP THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BETWEEN H85-H7 FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK EASTWARD TO DOWNEAST MAINE. THE OVERALL INCREASE IN BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...FROM AN AREAL AND INTENSITY STANDPOINT...WAS THE PRIMARY REASONING BEHIND INCREASING THE PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF MAINE...INCLUDING A 12+ INCH CONTOUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PORTION OF MAINE...AND EXPANDING THE PROBABILITIES OF 8+ INCHES WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VT/NH. HPC SNOW GRAPHICS USED THE 18Z HPC 6-HOURLY QPFS AND CONTINUED TO USE THE ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE FOR NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AND THERMALS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 lol it wasn't intentional Mike. I can redraw the line a few pixels south if you want Thanks guys! Lol, Let the lines fall as they may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 HPC'S take...... ...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE PAST 3-4 DAYS...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND OF THE SURFACE FEATURE DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LENDS ITSELF TO THE NOTION THAT THE COLD SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE AND THE PROJECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL FORECAST OVER THE GREEN/WHITE MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE WERE IN GOOD ORDER AS COLD ADVECTION MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WAVE. WITH THE SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK...MORE UP GLIDE FROM OCEAN TO INLAND AREAS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND PROGS/MODELS RAMPED UP THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BETWEEN H85-H7 FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK EASTWARD TO DOWNEAST MAINE. THE OVERALL INCREASE IN BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...FROM AN AREAL AND INTENSITY STANDPOINT...WAS THE PRIMARY REASONING BEHIND INCREASING THE PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF MAINE...INCLUDING A 12+ INCH CONTOUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PORTION OF MAINE...AND EXPANDING THE PROBABILITIES OF 8+ INCHES WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VT/NH. HPC SNOW GRAPHICS USED THE 18Z HPC 6-HOURLY QPFS AND CONTINUED TO USE THE ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE FOR NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTIONS AND THERMALS. They neglected to reference Mt. Tolland in their discussion about the shift south. Probably an oversight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 They neglected to reference Mt. Tolland in their discussion about the shift south. Probably an oversight. We can do an edit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's like death by a 1000 pin pricks. lol... every storm in the "nowcast" time frame always has a SE trend whether its buoy data, HRRR, SPC pressure maps, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Still is a tough call for heaviest snow. I still like Sunday river area down to nrn NH..maybe IZG area or so? Also, nrn VT should get hit good. However, SREFs are pretty far south with a very sharp QPF gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 420 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011 NYZ033-042-043-083-VTZ013>015-221000- /O.NEW.KALY.WS.A.0012.111123T0500Z-111124T0500Z/ HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPECULATOR...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL... GRANVILLE...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...BENNINGTON... JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO... BELLOWS FALLS 420 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. * TIMING...RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX...THEN ALL WET SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SNOW. * IMPACTS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT FROM FALLEN TREE LIMBS. * WINDS...WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 15 MPH TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Interesting that there hasn't been any references to the GFS beating the EC with this. I'd say it had the better idea than the Euro's amped up version of things. 34.9/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Interesting that there hasn't been any references to the GFS beating the EC with this. I'd say it had the better idea than the Euro's amped up version of things. 34.9/20 That would be considered blasphemy against the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Someone is gonna have some hefty snow rates in this. This is going to have a ton of juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Still is a tough call for heaviest snow. I still like Sunday river area down to nrn NH..maybe IZG area or so? Also, nrn VT should get hit good. However, SREFs are pretty far south with a very sharp QPF gradient. The IZG area was consistently coming up as a hot spot with everything I looked at. Pretty good banding signature in that area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Still is a tough call for heaviest snow. I still like Sunday river area down to nrn NH..maybe IZG area or so? Also, nrn VT should get hit good. However, SREFs are pretty far south with a very sharp QPF gradient. I think I agree. Maybe the N. Conway-Tamworth area may be the SW extent of the heaviest axis. What's your feeling for here? Looks like I'm right on the sharp gradient...I could see 1-2" or 4-7" depending on how things break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The IZG area was consistently coming up as a hot spot with everything I looked at. Pretty good banding signature in that area as well. They usually do, They scored big in the October storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The IZG area was consistently coming up as a hot spot with everything I looked at. Pretty good banding signature in that area as well. They looked good on the euro too...iirc it might have gotten touchy above 850. But yeah from them maybe up to Sunday River/ Rangeley and ENE through Bingham area look nice. Should avoid a DS for now, and maybe get into the backside band as this moves ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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