dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Haha its funny how last night no one was in this thread except for me and Dryslot for the most part... ahhh the SNE contingent comes back to life. Yeah, You and i was talking between ourselves for the most part.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wait till we see how farsouth and cold the GEFS are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Ends up being about the same as 12z...maybe a smidge colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's heading right in that direction.. I'd be willing to bet that most of interior Mass sees at least 1-3 ..possibly 2-4 I don't know, Maye a couple of slushy inches in some of the higher elevations, Still pretty torched @ H85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Still gets pretty warm aloft... thicknesses support mixed precip way north of the H85 line like Dendrite has been mentioning. Can't even count how many times we've seen the GFS way too warm 48 hours out in these setups and then slowly trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah, You and i was talking between ourselves for the most part.........lol GFS doubled QPF up here across to the western ME mountains at 18z....still not up to the scale of the NAM with those 1"+ QPF amounts but what do you expect? haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Ends up being about the same as 12z...maybe a smidge colder. Its actually a little north of 12z here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Congrats Dendrite on the 18z gfs...looks like all snow. Maybe even 1" down to the pike on the front end. He may not see a 6 year stretch like this in that area, again in his life....that spot has just been unable to lose since the 2006-07 season...unreal. Crushed in the OCT KU and now this....I essentially missed both. lol I can't believe that he only avgs like 10" more than I do...its been like 30" over that 6 year span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Can't even count how many times we've seen the GFS way too warm 48 hours out in these setups and then slowly trend colder. Yeah the difference here and why I'm not yet concerned about this completely whiffing to the south (though anything seems possible with the models these days) is that normally we see blocking or a -NAO upstream that would allow for this to continue going south. Sure the high pressure may trend a bit stronger, but the NAO is still positive and the airmass is not all that cold to begin with. I could still see this bumping north again with no blocking upsteam. Watch Montreal get the jackpot, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wait till we see how farsouth and cold the GEFS are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 BOX has all rain in the point and click up to MHT....the only accumulation they mention is for a few inches in the hills of SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Congrats Dendrite on the 18z gfs...looks like all snow. Maybe even 1" down to the pike on the front end. One of the perks of living up here is that I am 25 miles north and 500 feet higher than Dendrite. I never have to ask how much IMB? I get personalized forecasts just reading the thread. Love the model trend. Unfortunetly having 15 people driving up from SNE on Thur AM but should be fine by then. Kind of nervous with power issues with a pasting snow but at least the leaves are now 100% down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 South trend ain't done yet folks.. As HPC said yesterday..with the strength and position of that high there was no way this was shooting NW like it did the last 2 days.. Soon we will be back at the Euro solution from late last week of a snowfall for SNE ALB now has WSW up for all of S.VT. Almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The high has actually trended a couple mb stronger int he past 24 hours which is probably why we are seeing the rare colder trend on a SWFE. Reminds me of a weaker version of 12/16/07 in that regard...that high trended stronger as we got closer and we ended up getting blasted by the time the event was upon us. 80-90% of the time the trend is opposite with little to no blocking. Def good for those in CNE where it might mean the difference between a sloppy inch and 5-7". that high and low combo was amazing. you know how they saw you want a 'fresh' arctic airmass in place rather than a stale one. well that was a protype. i was -23C low that day and my high was -13C. that is pretty much unheard of to get those kind of temps to dig in over quebec and to have a storm barrel into the cold dome. fabulous event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 He may not see a 6 year stretch like this in that area, again in his life....that spot has just been unable to lose since the 2006-07 season...unreal. Crushed in the OCT KU and now this....I essentially missed both. lol I can't believe that he only avgs like 10" more than I do...its been like 30" over that 6 year span. Maybe they will get taken out back to the woodshed '64-'65 style this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Maybe they will get taken out back to the woodshed '64-'65 style this year. Considering that he'll have nearly half of his annual avg before thanksgiving, I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Typical NAM bias of underdoing WAA in swfe.....this will verify 50 mi N, undoubtedly. hmmm you're right. i guess i still have to keep an eye on it then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 SREFs are still very bullish with the snow probs for C NH. Of course, if you do the math there's about a 20% chance of < 1" in this 12hr span too. That's on crack. There is no way in hell I should see me with a 30% for 4". Going with an inch is stretching it imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That's on crack. There is no way in hell I should see me with a 30% for 4". Going with an inch is stretching it imho. Well, if you're bellyaching about us not getting dumped on I should probably prepare for a heavy snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Well, if you're bellyaching about us not getting dumped on I should probably prepare for a heavy snowfall. LOL Mike is the "QPF Queen"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 LOL Mike is the "QPF Queen"... x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Well, off to the pats game. When I read the posts on the way home I expect to see heavy heavy south trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 This may be the first night we break 20F here, Cold high.........ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Well, off to the pats game. When I read the posts on the way home I expect to see heavy heavy south trends. Have fun, Should be a win against the chiefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 LOL Mike is the "QPF Queen"... It's a beautiful dance he does. He congratulates everyone else for being the jackpot on the 00z JMA. When it looks more likely that GC will get in on the action he openly frets about the diminishing QPF (Messenger does his best to fan these flames by constant posting about the SE trend and convective feedback.) Then as the precip breaks out to our SW he fixates on the radar looking too spotty or wrong trajectory. Then come the excited posts between he and I as the heavy snow sets up over us. After houirs of SN+ obs he falls asleep and then awakens to make astonished posts about the new 24" that has fallen. It really is a wonderful thing and I look forward to it repeating over and over again this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Have fun, Should be a win against the chiefs Hopefully the Pats go down to stark, ignominious defeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 He may not see a 6 year stretch like this in that area, again in his life Probably not. I've really been lucking out with deform bands on the SNE storms and then front end thumps from SWFEs.The 18z GFS is alright here, but I changeover on this run. It's warmer aloft versus 12z although it's a little faster too. I'd probably push warning criteria before mixing with RA/PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Probably not. I've really been lucking out with deform bands on the SNE storms and then front end thumps from SWFEs. The 18z GFS is alright here, but I changeover on this run. It's warmer aloft versus 12z although it's a little faster too. I'd probably push warning criteria before mixing with RA/PL. Possibly a white Thanksgiving? Do tell. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Have fun, Should be a win against the chiefs I sure hope so...lol Hopefully the Pats go down to stark, ignominious defeat. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's a beautiful dance he does. He congratulates everyone else for being the jackpot on the 00z JMA. When it looks more likely that GC will get in on the action he openly frets about the diminishing QPF (Messenger does his best to fan these flames by constant posting about the SE trend and convective feedback.) Then as the precip breaks out to our SW he fixates on the radar looking too spotty or wrong trajectory. Then come the excited posts between he and I as the heavy snow sets up over us. After houirs of SN+ obs he falls asleep and then awakens to make astonished posts about the new 24" that has fallen. It really is a wonderful thing and I look forward to it repeating over and over again this Winter. Sounds like oct 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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