ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yay, a colder rain. Its all just noise for us. Yes indeed. Its not going to do much for anyone except pad seasonal snowfall stats even in areas that get advisory snows or better...its all going to get wiped out faster than fried chicken in the Red Sox clubhouse anyway by the upcoming torch. That said, I'd never turn down the opportunity to get a few crappy inches on the front end, but we are too far south in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It kind of reminds me as far as rain/snow line of that storm last year in late Feb, 2/25? 2/27? It had looked like all rain except for far NNE then in the last 2 days it trended south and ORH ended up getting 1" before the rain. There was a gradient in SNH where Nashua got like 3" of cement and areas like New Ipswich and more elevated areas got like 9-10". I don't really remember what the set-up was like for that one though. This one will probably be about 20-40 miles north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Typical NAM bias of underdoing WAA in swfe.....this will verify 50 mi N, undoubtedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Typical NAM bias of underdoing WAA in swfe.....this will verify 50 mi N, undoubtedly. True Live and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Typical NAM bias of underdoing WAA in swfe.....this will verify 50 mi N, undoubtedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It kind of reminds me as far as rain/snow line of that storm last year in late Feb, 2/25? 2/27? It had looked like all rain except for far NNE then in the last 2 days it trended south and ORH ended up getting 1" before the rain. There was a gradient in SNH where Nashua got like 3" of cement and areas like New Ipswich and more elevated areas got like 9-10". I don't really remember what the set-up was like for that one though. 2/24-25 I had like 2-3" on the front end and then hours of ZR. It was a big storm for NH/ME. This one will be north/warmer than that one most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I have no weenie in this bun; I rain either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Typical NAM bias of underdoing WAA in swfe.....this will verify 50 mi N, undoubtedly. Maybe. But the high keeps trending stronger and many models are beating the colder scenario drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 2/24-25 I had like 2-3" on the front end and then hours of ZR. It was a big storm for NH/ME. This one will be north/warmer than that one most likely. Yeah that's the one. I was in southern NH for that one so I didn't remember what this area got. I remember driving 30-40 minutes the next day from Merrimack to New Ipswich and it was amazing how quick it went from 3" of slush to a solid 8-12" storm. And yeah an in an edit to my last post I said that this one would probably be like 40 miles north most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Maybe. But the high keeps trending stronger and many models are beating the colder scenario drum. I'm always weary of those trends....yea, yea...12\16\07, but that was an anomaly. The vast majority of the time we will see somewhat of a correction back to the nw within the final 24-36 hrs of go-time....we saw it last year in the night cap of that early Feb double header......in which some of the local mets were going for over 1' in the face of mid level centers flying west. Laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'm always weary of those trends....yea, yea...12\16\07, but that was an anomaly. The vast majority of the time we will see somewhat of a correction back to the nw within the final 24-36 hrs of go-time....we saw it last year in the night cap of that early Feb double header......in which some of the local mets were going for over 1' in the face of mid level centers flying west. Laughable. Not just that, but 20-24" for the two storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Not just that, but 20-24" for the two storms Nevere seen anything like it....like the the love child of Henry H and Kevie Woody seiged every single media outlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'm always weary of those trends....yea, yea...12\16\07, but that was an anomaly. The vast majority of the time we will see somewhat of a correction back to the nw within the final 24-36 hrs of go-time....we saw it last year in the night cap of that early Feb double header......in which some of the local mets were going for over 1' in the face of mid level centers flying west. Laughable. If it does it will have to start @0z as we are close to that window right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'm always weary of those trends....yea, yea...12\16\07, but that was an anomaly. The vast majority of the time we will see somewhat of a correction back to the nw within the final 24-36 hrs of go-time....we saw it last year in the night cap of that early Feb double header......in which some of the local mets were going for over 1' in the face of mid level centers flying west. Laughable. Many of the models have the H7 low moving through SNE now near the NH/MA border. The Euro op/ens are fairly cold up here too now. It probably will bump back north a bit near verification time so I'll keep taking all of the south trends I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 If it does it will have to start @0z as we are close to that window right now.. GL....couldn't care less whether it does or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Actually the current track of this low on the NAM would generally be very beneficial for snow from here east to let's say Nashua, NH. It's just the marginal nature of the temps and only being Nov. 22nd. We're at the point now where if you shaved 2C off the NAM at all levels we are getting snow here. So still cold rain, but tantalizingly close. Nevere seen anything like it....like the the love child of Henry H and Kevie Woody seiged every single media outlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Many of the models have the H7 low moving through SNE now near the NH/MA border. The Euro op/ens are fairly cold up here too now. It probably will bump back north a bit near verification time so I'll keep taking all of the south trends I can get. Yea, I mean, maybe it trends enough where you can afford a n tick......if I were you, then I WOULD be interested, of course. Don't get me wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Actually the current track of this low on the NAM would generally be very beneficial for snow from here east to let's say Nashua, NH. It's just the marginal nature of the temps and only being Nov. 22nd. We're at the point now where if you shaved 2C off the NAM at all levels we are getting snow here. So still cold rain, but tantalizingly close. My post that you quoted was in reference to early Feb of 2011, not this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I just clicked reply and it quoted you, but wasn't directed at what you said. My post that you quoted was in reference to early Feb of 2011, not this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 SREFs are still very bullish with the snow probs for C NH. Of course, if you do the math there's about a 20% chance of < 1" in this 12hr span too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'm almost into the 25% for 8"+. SREFs are still very bullish with the snow probs for C NH. Of course, if you do the math there's about a 20% chance of < 1" in this 12hr span too. Last night at 21z they were probably about 40-50 miles further north...hopefully we can continue the south trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 SREFs are still very bullish with the snow probs for C NH. Of course, if you do the math there's about a 20% chance of < 1" in this 12hr span too. They are way south... yikes... this area over towards Rangley, ME doesn't get any measurable on like a third of those SREFs. That would be an interesting twist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 South trend ain't done yet folks.. As HPC said yesterday..with the strength and position of that high there was no way this was shooting NW like it did the last 2 days.. Soon we will be back at the Euro solution from late last week of a snowfall for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 South trend ain't done yet folks.. As HPC said yesterday..with the strength and position of that high there was no way this was shooting NW like it did the last 2 days.. Soon we will be back at the Euro solution from late last week of a snowfall for SNE It has quite a bit of work to do if thats the case, That cold air is only going to drain so far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 They are way south... yikes... this area over towards Rangley, ME doesn't get any measurable on like a third of those SREFs. That would be an interesting twist. Move this thing south! 18z gfs looks colder and a little south through 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It has quite a bit of work to do if thats the case, That cold air is only going to drain so far south It's heading right in that direction.. I'd be willing to bet that most of interior Mass sees at least 1-3 ..possibly 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Congrats Dendrite on the 18z gfs...looks like all snow. Maybe even 1" down to the pike on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Move this thing south! 18z gfs looks colder and a little south through 42hr. Haha its funny how last night no one was in this thread except for me and Dryslot for the most part... ahhh the SNE contingent comes back to life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Still gets pretty warm aloft... thicknesses support mixed precip way north of the H85 line like Dendrite has been mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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