dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 NNE ftw. Backside snows at the pit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 lol...all snow here on the NAM? Jaffrey could be looking at 40" on the season, before Dec 1st LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Kevin> Another day of trends like this and we can lock up 4-8" lollies to 10"> Kevin Running out of days as we are 39 hrs out from the onset here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 lol, nam still loving the back end snow idea. Too bad the ec/gfs both torch so much that the only chance of snow is at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Jaffrey could be looking at 40" on the season, before Dec 1st LOL And 3 days later 0" snowpack.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 750mb flirts with 0C here at 48hr, but verbatim this run is 1.50"+ and all snow. Congrats Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Lock it up. I'm not in NE VT right now, so they WILL pick up a foot of snow and have it torch and dwindle to snowbanks by 11/27 when I return. Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's definitely more suppressed and colder. 850 0C here for the first several hours of the precip. and never gets above about 1C from here to southern NH. The 12z euro looks like it might give me a 20 minute period of SN/IP on the overnight Tuesday before the switch to rain. Exciting. 18z nam looks about the same as 12z so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 750mb flirts with 0C here at 48hr, but verbatim this run is 1.50"+ and all snow. Congrats Ukie? Crazy uncle found an acorn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Jaffrey could be looking at 40" on the season, before Dec 1st LOL Well this run is warm above 850mb for AFN. At 42hr H8 is up to 2-3C there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 And 3 days later 0" snowpack.. Must be how the Mid Atlantic felt during the 2009-10 season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 You guys need to throw the 850mb isotherm out the window with the front end thump. H75-H8 is generally the warmest layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The high has actually trended a couple mb stronger int he past 24 hours which is probably why we are seeing the rare colder trend on a SWFE. Reminds me of a weaker version of 12/16/07 in that regard...that high trended stronger as we got closer and we ended up getting blasted by the time the event was upon us. 80-90% of the time the trend is opposite with little to no blocking. Def good for those in CNE where it might mean the difference between a sloppy inch and 5-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Feels like snow here now.... mainly blue skies and 37/25. 750mb flirts with 0C here at 48hr, but verbatim this run is 1.50"+ and all snow. Congrats Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wow, this is looking more and more significant for central New England with every model run Perfect opportunity for this to all collapse S at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's definitely more suppressed and colder. 850 0C here for the first several hours of the precip. and never gets above about 1C from here to southern NH. Yeah it is colder. I made that post at 3:10 so that was based on hour 24. It keeps trending, just needs to move another 100 miles south for me lol. MHT- just north of Dendrite is where the tough forecast is right now I think. Anywhere North of Dendrite and into Maine/NNH is pretty good bet for 6". I think MHT- north of Dendrite is where there could be a brief period of snow over to all rain or could be 4"+. South of MHT probably won't be seeing anything more then a brief SN/IP at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Sugarloaf opens tomorrow. I hope they get pummeled so folks can at least have a few days of fun. You know they will have every groomer and plow on the mountain pushing and packing whatever falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The high has actually trended a couple mb stronger int he past 24 hours which is probably why we are seeing the rare colder trend on a SWFE. Reminds me of a weaker version of 12/16/07 in that regard...that high trended stronger as we got closer and we ended up getting blasted by the time the event was upon us. 80-90% of the time the trend is opposite with little to no blocking. Def good for those in CNE where it might mean the difference between a sloppy inch and 5-7". And we get the sloppy inch instead if we're lucky lol. Perfect opportunity for this to all collapse S at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 wish i was having thanksgiving up in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Backside snows at the pit Perhaps. But, I think longtitude will play a bigger role in p-type than is typical (east = better). Well, out to split some wood. 40.2/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 You guys need to throw the 850mb isotherm out the window with the front end thump. H75-H8 is generally the warmest layer. Yeah I was just saying that to myself. This storm is going have a slanted temp profile and your changeover line will be N of the 850 0C isotherm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Must be how the Mid Atlantic felt during the 2009-10 season lol nope, I think we had a record ground cover period (at BWI) after 54" in 11 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah I was just saying that to myself. This storm is going have a slanted temp profile and your changeover line will be N of the 850 0C isotherm. warm layer (some where in there) shows up on thicknesses http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F21%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 wish i was having thanksgiving up in the mountains. Would be a great weekend, even if it warms up who cares. Classic early season dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The high has actually trended a couple mb stronger int he past 24 hours which is probably why we are seeing the rare colder trend on a SWFE. Reminds me of a weaker version of 12/16/07 in that regard...that high trended stronger as we got closer and we ended up getting blasted by the time the event was upon us. 80-90% of the time the trend is opposite with little to no blocking. Def good for those in CNE where it might mean the difference between a sloppy inch and 5-7". Yay, a colder rain. Its all just noise for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah I was just saying that to myself. This storm is going have a slanted temp profile and your changeover line will be N of the 850 0C isotherm. Usually a crude way to do it in these setups is like the -2C or -3C 850 line...obviously if you have a map with the 850-700 1540m thickness line on it, its better, but that is not very common on a lot of these plots. Deeper in winter, you can have like -8C at 850 and still be ripping sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 wish i was having thanksgiving up in the mountains. If I wasn't working Wednesday night I would go up early to my relatives in central NH to enjoy the storm. It will be melting by the time we're there on Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Usually a crude way to do it in these setups is like the -2C or -3C 850 line...obviously if you have a map with the 850-700 1540m thickness line on it, its better, but that is not very common on a lot of these plots. Deeper in winter, you can have like -8C at 850 and still be ripping sleet. i think kevin's familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Must be how the Mid Atlantic felt during the 2009-10 season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 If I end up with 6"+ I'm locking in a foot on 12/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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