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November 23 - Storm Threat


powderfreak

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  On 11/23/2011 at 2:00 AM, mahk_webstah said:

It looks like precip is coming in fast looking at the wunderground radar...I guess we will see...but perhaps we get a big dump before warming. Looks like it comes in a like a wall...hope so.

"SWF....THE PRECIP COMES IN FASTER, BUT SO DOESN'T THE SLEET"

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  On 11/23/2011 at 2:24 AM, Dryslot said:

Just going to comment that the 0z Nam keeps bumping up rather then cutting back qpf, Its .25" up in a lot of areas here from 18z...

it moved about 10 miles north with the heavier stuff.

still skimpy on the northern edges compared to other guidance. radar shows echoes moving steadily towards ottawa, which should mean good things for Northernmost VT as well.

SREFs snow probs bumped up across MTL with >4 inches downtown tickling the 75% range now.

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  On 11/23/2011 at 2:30 AM, CoastalWx said:

These things always have a DS race in. I think it may make the precip more showery after 12z across srn areas, but we'll have to see how it goes. The 00z NAM doesn't show much of it.

I ended up flying out Wednesday.. coach wouldn't let me leave early.. Have a bad feeling about tomorrow lol

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GFS is a smidge colder this run. All snow here through 12z with about 1.00" QPF.

I think I end up with about 0.50"-0.75" as snow and then a good 0.25" as sleet. 9:1 ratios for the snow give me 4-6" and then an additional 3:1 of sleet for another 1" is a total of 5-7". Time for sleep...I'll be up early.

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