Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[Hoosier]

00z Euro is different than the 12z run for sure. Much less impressive with the cutoff at 144 hours.

Surface low near eastern KY at 168 hrs...everyone is rain.

[snowlover2]

Surface low near eastern KY at 168 hrs...everyone is rain.

Thats usually a good position for us to get snow. Is it closed off or is there just no cold air to work with?

[Hoosier]

Thats usually a good position for us to get snow. Is it closed off or is there just no cold air to work with?

Both...it's closed/cutoff and warm.

[PatrickSumner]

Both...it's closed/cutoff and warm.

EURO is really having lots of trouble with this storm system. GFS has been fairly consistent. Doesn't mean it's the best choice, but it has been consistent.

[Hoosier]

EURO is really having lots of trouble with this storm system. GFS has been fairly consistent. Doesn't mean it's the best choice, but it has been consistent.

It's been more consistent than the Euro up to this point for sure (though they've both been bad) but it's hard to trust anything in this setup.

[wisconsinwx]

EURO is really having lots of trouble with this storm system. GFS has been fairly consistent. Doesn't mean it's the best choice, but it has been consistent.

They've both been flip-flopping; until one of them becomes consistent for a couple runs, I guess it's best to take both with a grain of salt.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Both...it's closed/cutoff and warm.

After the low cuts off the Euro just doesn't have the same trough/energy coming down from Canada that the GFS does that picks up and interacts with the storm..

[IWXwx]

Anytime upper level lows can dish out the Fujiwhara its going to be a good week...

This. It's gonna be fun model watching for the next couple of days.

[wxhstn74]

This. It's gonna be fun model watching for the next couple of days.

As some of you probably know, the big problem with these model runs is they really don't have a grasp on what ACTUALLY the northern Pacific jet entails since there is no good data to sample and the STRONG but PROBLEMATIC jet I talked about in my WO. This is the energy that is forecast to dig into the western US this weekend and until it does, models are just guessing where and what she'll do. Next problem is the polar air intrusion early next week (and the other PROBLEM this winter) again no good sample of actual data (see second map on the jets and fourth on tracks I expected this winter based on analogues). The third map shows the tremendous jet channel that's created over the Northern Pacific between the ridge heights and deep polar vortex over the northern Pacific into western Canada in these analogue years.

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2011/11/still-another-la-nina-rides-in-for.html

[RogueWaves]

The storm on the 12z GFS explodes once it phases/interacts with the incoming trough from Canada around 165ish!! IDk if it will happen or not but a really cool run nonetheless

Might happen. iirc, the Sept system took off like a rocket and deepened when it interacted, made waves like 27 ft high on Lk. Michigan. Nov type waves In Sept. Crazy stuff!

idk, but I'd love to see it happen again with this one, lol..

[RogueWaves]

Now she cuts off and waits for the more powerful polar jet to phase Tue 11/29 and Michigan under the gun (especially Western with added Lk effect). I guess its as good of solution as any. Thoughts? Sure gon' crazy! For those asking about when is winter beginning???

Funny, back in Sept. early Oct. after the first spinner, I gut reaction forecasted a MI doozy similar to 16-Nov-89 to kick-off winter in these parts. Maybe I'll verify my gut after all. Wasn't looking like I had a snowball's chance, then presto, BIll Deedler showed up.

[QVectorman]

Talk about having a hard time with a system ...does anyone else think the Euro is confused with the 540 line on the 0z run last night for 120 hours? LOL Love the loop di loop

[AppsRunner]

GGEM never closes it off completely, ends up not being too shabby for a few places. Hard to say what the UKIE does since FSU doesn't have in between frames anymore

[wisconsinwx]

So when does most of the energy come ashore and allow this system to get better sampling?

[Hoosier]

12z Euro has a weak surface low in southern Georgia at 132 hours.

[Hoosier]

12z Euro is more diggy with the northern stream so it may link up with our low later on but it would probably be too late for most here.

[Hoosier]

Euro takes it up the east coast.

[snowstormcanuck]

not paying close attention. Cutoff low cancelled?

[Thundersnow12]

18z GFS further south with the ULL near in northern IL at 84hr compared to the 12z run which had it in northern WI.

[BeastFromTheEast]

18z GFS further south with the ULL near in northern IL at 84hr compared to the 12z run which had it in northern WI.

Down to 90 hrs.. Getting closer

[Hoosier]

not paying close attention. Cutoff low cancelled?

maybe, maybe not lol

[Thundersnow12]

0z GFS continues to show the chance at snow/snow showers across the area bringing a weak deformation zone through late saturday night into sunday morning.

[cyclone77]

0z GFS continues to show the chance at snow/snow showers across the area bringing a weak deformation zone through late saturday night into sunday morning.

Yeah looks like a good shot at some snow showers/flurries for many of us across the GL. Definitely looks like the storm potential is quickly fading, but some flakes flying around in the air will be nice for many of us.

[wisconsinwx]

Might even get an inch or two in Door County right before I head back home Sunday morning/afternoon. That's all we need in November; some flakes flying and light accumulations.

[wxmeddler]

The Canadian strikes again...

[OceanStWx]

Yeah looks like a good shot at some snow showers/flurries for many of us across the GL. Definitely looks like the storm potential is quickly fading, but some flakes flying around in the air will be nice for many of us.

You all can have the flakes for a little bit. The WFO here is already at 21.1" for the year, slightly over 25% of the seasonal average, before the start of meteorological winter. Trying to deal with mixed precipitation and rain/snow lines in the grids is maddening.

[wisconsinwx]

The NAM and GFS seem to agree on a light area of deformation zone precip giving much of Wisconsin at least a half inch (to possibly several inches in NW Wisconsin), while the Euro yields almost no snow except in the UP. Normally I'd favor the Euro over the former two models, but when they are in agreement, they should be considered.

[Hoosier]

Still some model madness going on. The NAM/GFS are the most progressive solutions while the others generally agree on cutting off somewhere in the lower MS Valley/Southeast.

[Hoosier]

12z Euro really dragging...500 mb low still over SE Louisiana at 120 hours.

[Hoosier]

The NCEP suite tries to amp up the 500mb low a bit more while it doesn't. Leading toward a pathetic "cold shot". Leaves a piece over the gulf because of it as well. Models have had problems with the strength of the northern stream all november. Remember the ECMWF and the pre-thanksgiving system? Actually dug the ull into the lakes.........then it stayed in Canada.

Substantial model differences already start showing up around 72-84 hours. Something's gotta give and soon. My gut feeling is that the less progressive solutions will be more correct but maybe not as slow as the Euro. Low confidence period though.