Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[Thundersnow12]

DVN already being quite bullish as usual

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AFTER ANOTHER POTENTIALLY VERY MILD DAY ON

FRI DEPENDING ON TIMING OF ANY ONSET OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...ACTIVE

EASTERN PACIFIC-GULF OF AK WAVE TRAIN WILL LOOK TO COMBINE AGAIN TO

DEVELOP A L/W TROF ACRS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...OF COURSE PHASING

POTENTIAL DEPENDENT. THE LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS

STILL HAVE MUCH TO PICK UP AND REFINE REGARDING THIS PROCESS AT WEEKS

END AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. BUT THE GENERAL

IDEA CONTINUES FOR A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE FEATURE TO TRY AND DEVELOP

TOWARD THE MID CONUS THIS PERIOD AND PRODUCE A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP

OFF THE WESTERN GULF OR EVEN FURTHER SOURCE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST

BAJA...TO FUEL ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT IN THE AREA

EITHER BY LATE FRI OR SAT. THEN DEPENDING ON L/W TROF PROGRESSION...A

PART OF THE BUILDING COLD POOL/RESERVOIR ACRS THE WESTERN HALF OF

CANADA MAY BREAK LOOSE AND FLOW DOWN INTO THE TROF BASE LATE SAT OR

SUNDAY BEHIND ANY EXITING PRECIP SHIELD. ANY LINGERING PRECIP OR WRAP

AROUND PRECIP UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MAY STILL

PROVIDE A SNOW CHANCE SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH LATEST RUNS

SUGGESTING A SECONDARY DEF ZONE TYPE FEATURE POKING INTO THE CWA WITH

SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN

THE LONGER RANGE SIGNALS BEING PICKED UP BY MOST OF THE LATEST MEDIUM

RANGE RUNS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING VIGOROUS WESTERLY FLOW ACRS CANADA

AND THE SOUTHWARD DEPTH PLUNGE OF THE LLVL COLD POOL INTRUSION WILL

TRANSLATE INTO A MONSTER CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER AND JUST EAST

OF THE ENTIRE MS RVR VALLEY. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY... THE REGION

WOULD BE OPEN UP TO MUCH COLDER TEMPS/BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS/ THEN

CURRENTLY FCST WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUE OF

NEXT WEEK. WITH BANDED FORCING UNDER GYRATING MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE

CENTER...SWATHS OF HEADLINE WORTHY SNOWS WOULD DEFINITELY BE

POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN TEMPS SOME FROM SATURDAY NIGHT

ON INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED RANGE...AS WELL AS GO WITH SNOW OR

RAIN-SNOW MIX WORDING WITH ANY POP WINDOWS THAT ARE OUT THERE FOR

NOW. STAY TUNED FOR MODEL REFINEMENT/HOPEFULLY/ OVER THE NEXT 36-84

HRS REGARDING THIS POSSIBLY HIGH IMPACT PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ..12..

[AppsRunner]

Meh, we will see. The ECMWF was to far east on the trough axis. Even if we get some better allignments on the deformation side of it on the GFS, I think Ohio is to far east. More likely the most notable piece of information will be that parts of the deep south are colder than Detroit lol. So 40's and rain here we come, then a colder couple of days, then another torch as the models figure out that cutoff isn't going to sit there forever while the next goa low roars down the pike.

Hopefully we get a real winter pattern going around December 5-15 period.

First of all I think you missed my point. I just said that the ECM shows a decent storm, not saying that it's going to be Ohio. I doubt it will be.

But you are missing the fact that the ECM doesn't even have the Alaskan vortex after Day 10. Even though it's a weakly +EPO, it's a lot better pattern than what we've been seeing in November. Though this really shouldn't be in this thread

. What GOA low?

[Thundersnow12]

18z GFS brings the sfc low from Louisville up to Door County (998mb) best snow band is from around BMI up I-39 in IL to MSN/Dells to northern/northwest WI.

[cyclone77]

Kind of a crude map, but it illustrates how wrapped up this thing gets on the 12z GFS. Snow in northern Georgia, and at the same time rain in northeast Minnesota.

[cyclone77]

Man, look at the H5 jet structure on the 12z GFS. Pretty damn insane!

120kt SOUTHEAST flow over southwest Michigan/LM!

[SpartyOn]

Looks nothing more than a September cutoff repeat right now. The fall looks to continue into december.

Ouch. Black mark on your otherwise good track record. It happens.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Which is the point. Wait and see. Day 10 is irrevelant. It will change 100 times by then. Just relax and be calm. We have dealt with the rain all fall, what is a couple more weeks eh?

Meh, we will see. The ECMWF was to far east on the trough axis. Even if we get some better allignments on the deformation side of it on the GFS, I think Ohio is to far east. More likely the most notable piece of information will be that parts of the deep south are colder than Detroit lol. So 40's and rain here we come, then a colder couple of days, then another torch as the models figure out that cutoff isn't going to sit there forever while the next goa low roars down the pike.

Hopefully we get a real winter pattern going around December 5-15 period.

So its relevant here ^ ehhh?? How about you follow your own advise and just relax and be calm instead of the persistent bitter trolling...

[Hoosier]

Definitely a crazy setup on the models. I drew the approximate track on the 00z GFS starting at 132 hours. The surface low moves west/southwest toward STL before moving southeast and then heading north and rapidly deepening.

[Thundersnow12]

And if you go back and look at the last 4 runs of the GFS, the 0z run tonight has the sfc low west of all other runs at 0z monday evening.

tonights run-1002mb near Champaign (occluding)

18z run- 999mb in extreme southwest MI

12z run-997mb in northern IN

6z run-998mb near LAF

[dmc76]

Well this storm sort of got warm at least on the GFS

[Thundersnow12]

big differences between the 12z NAM and 6z GFS.

[gosaints]

big differences between the 12z NAM and 6z GFS.

What would these differences mean?

[AppsRunner]

big differences between the 12z NAM and 6z GFS.

To say that's a complete understatement. NAM still hasn't phased that s/w while the GFS is already fully phased. 12z GFS follows the previous run too.

[wisconsinwx]

To say that's a complete understatement. NAM still hasn't phased that s/w while the GFS is already fully phased. 12z GFS follows the previous run too.

From what I see of the 12z GFS, it looks like it goes away from the retrograding cutoff low idea. That's only through 132 hours, though.

[AppsRunner]

From what I see of the 12z GFS, it looks like it goes away from the retrograding cutoff low idea. That's only through 132 hours, though.

Well, I was just comparing it to the NAM up to 84hrs, because obviously I can't compare what the NAM does after that.

[mnweather]

From what I see of the 12z GFS, it looks like it goes away from the retrograding cutoff low idea. That's only through 132 hours, though.

It still retrogrades but not as far west as before.

[wisconsinwx]

It still retrogrades but not as far west as before.

As I see more hours come in, I see that as well. I thought it would keep trending west/northwest.

[Hoosier]

12z GFS at 144 hours has 850 mb temps of 11C in eastern IN and -4C in Mobile, AL.

[AppsRunner]

GGEM keeps the trough open, big storm up to Erie then it retrogrades west a bit afterwards.

The plot thickens, I suppose. Although the GFS would still show some light snow all across the area, this would be a lot different.

[Chicago WX]

12z GFS at 144 hours has 850 mb temps of 11C in eastern IN and -4C in Mobile, AL.

Torch.

Perhaps some snow around here at 168 hours, marginal as it is...

[wisconsinwx]

Model madness at its best. Yesterday, I thought we'd miss the significant snow well to our west. Now, many of us need the west/northwest trend.

[kab2791]

12Z GFS was a cool run for northern/central/western MI. Regardless, this will be a fun one to watch.

[Hoosier]

Torch.

Perhaps some snow around here at 168 hours, marginal as it is...

Pretty far out for a straight-forward setup let alone something complex like this. Basically it's going to be a while before I start to buy anything.

[AppsRunner]

Pretty far out for a straight-forward setup let alone something complex like this. Basically it's going to be a while before I start to buy anything.

Yeah. The 12z GEM/NAM looked to be the first models to completely leave the s/w in the southwest behind. I'm not even going to bother with what's going to happen with this storm. I'd just like to see some snowflakes with this storm.

[Jonger]

12Z GFS was a cool run for northern/central/western MI. Regardless, this will be a fun one to watch.

The snowmobiles are gassed up and the only thing left is determining what hotel/location gets my money....

Ok, jumping the gun... I can hope though.

[Chicago WX]

Pretty far out for a straight-forward setup let alone something complex like this. Basically it's going to be a while before I start to buy anything.

Yeah, like 6 hours before it hits. Maybe.

[Jonger]

Its definitely frustrating that this pattern won't lock into normal seasonal flow. I fear it will be one of those winters that won't start till like mid December.

[Chicago Storm]

Yeah. The 12z GEM/NAM looked to be the first models to completely leave the s/w in the southwest behind. I'm not even going to bother with what's going to happen with this storm. I'd just like to see some snowflakes with this storm.

Not that it matters much, but the 12z NAM would not have left the southern s/w behind in the southwest as the GGEM did.

[BeastFromTheEast]

The storm on the 12z GFS explodes once it phases/interacts with the incoming trough from Canada around 165ish!! IDk if it will happen or not but a really cool run nonetheless

[wxhstn74]

Pretty far out for a straight-forward setup let alone something complex like this. Basically it's going to be a while before I start to buy anything.

Boy did I open up a can of worms when i originally posted about this system (and more than one way ;-) lol. What a frigin mess. Here's part of the narrative out of NMC this

Tue AM 11/22 pmdepd and ain't it he truth!

NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE TO VARYING DEGREES INDICATES A BUILDING EPAC/WEST COAST RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM ENERGY TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE BASE OF TEH PAC TROF INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVOLVE INTO A DEEP MID LEVEL TROF AS IT CLEAR THE ROCKIES AND STRONGLY SHARPENS IN THE MS VALLEY. BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS GFS/CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF HAVE AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CUTTING OFF OF THE TROF INTO A VERY SIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS SERIES HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST ERRATIC WITH THIS EVOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN. ENSEMBLES OF GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO THIS SYSTEM WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY BUT WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS SOLUTION AND HEAVIER WEIGHTING TOWARDS THAT TREND NEEDS TO BE ADDED. MINI MODEL ENSEMBLE/LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF GFS/ECMWF INDICATES A CLOSING OFF OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER IN THE CENTRAL MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 7 SUN/TUES. MODELS USUALLY HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY HANDNG THE EVOLUTION OF AND MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF CUTOFF LOWS AND CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED BY DAYS 6 AND 7 MON/TUES.