Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[AppsRunner]

Finally does eject by 228-240...looks like it would be rain changing to snow for the Lakes.

Can't speak for the actual ensembles, but the EPS control does the same... Apps Runner storm.

[hm8]

18z GFS pretty much stalls a sub-1000mb low in the north LP of michigan from 12z Sat. to Sun.,

[Jonger]

18z GFS pretty much stalls a sub-1000mb low in the north LP of michigan from 12z Sat. to Sun.,

I'm really interested in this. Looks like a LES dream. I'm dying to trailer my snowmobiles somewhere within 250 miles. Gaylord to Kalkaska is where I want the snow. Looks like. Warmup after that... So I might have to time this right.

[Thunder Road]

The 0z GFS would be an excellent LES set-up for mby and the rest of N IN if only we had cold air in place.

Still definitely something to watch.

[tornadotony]

The 0z GFS would be an excellent LES set-up for mby and the rest of N IN if only we had cold air in place.

Still definitely something to watch.

That would be classic Valpo...right when everyone is either trying to get in or out the sky begins to fall...

[Thundersnow12]

6z GFS develops a fairly strong system and then sits over the GL and western/northwest IL and eastern IA gets plenty of snow.

[cyclone77]

6z GFS develops a fairly strong system and then sits over the GL and western/northwest IL and eastern IA gets plenty of snow.

The 12z version is somewhat similar. I think the models are gonna have fits with this system all week long lol. Gonna be interesting.

[Chicago WX]

12z GFS certainly looks interesting. 0z Euro basically punted, we'll see if the 12z run brings it back.

[wisconsinwx]

How similar is the potential setup on the recent GFS runs to the late September upper level low that just sat and produced showers and t'storms in the GL for almost a week?

[Thundersnow12]

The 12z version is somewhat similar. I think the models are gonna have fits with this system all week long lol. Gonna be interesting.

Yep alot of people get sticking snow on the 12z run.

[Thundersnow12]

some awesome images off the 12z GFS on the thickness composite maps

All snow all the way down to MS left of all the thickness lines.

[Chicago WX]

12z GGEM has the idea, but is displaced farther north and west compared to the GFS.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[wisconsinwx]

Yep alot of people get sticking snow on the 12z run.

It looks like the WI/Iowa/ILL border area gets a solid snowstorm (6-9").

[Chinook]

It's like the hurricane symbol. The GFS at 228 hours

[Chicago WX]

Mixed bag with the 12z GFS ensembles. RE the cut-off...some have it, some have it well east, some move things along quickly or don't have it all.

[Hoosier]

some awesome images off the 12z GFS on the thickness composite maps

All snow all the way down to MS left of all the thickness lines.

Trough takes on a severe negative tilt by 180 hrs and Tallahassee is colder than NYC.

[Chicago Storm]

12z ECMWF cuts it off too, though a bit farther north and east compared to the GFS.

Much of the GL/MW/OV see at least some snow, best accums over MN/WI/MI/IL.

Secondary SLP moves from Charlotte, NC to La Crosse.

[Chicago WX]

Yep, the 12z Euro looks fun...and a little kooky.

[Hoosier]

12z ECMWF cuts it off too, though a bit farther north and east compared to the GFS.

Much of the GL/MW/OV see at least some snow, best accums over MN/WI/MI/IL.

Secondary SLP moves from Charlotte, NC to La Crosse.

Lots of warm air wrapped in. That would be one of those weird situations where it's raining in Marquette and snowing in Chicago.

[Chicago WX]

Lots of warm air wrapped in. That would be one of those weird situations where it's raining in Marquette and snowing in Chicago.

Warm is relative though. You know, some will see that and think widespread 60's and 70's.

But your point is valid. Nature of these types of systems.

[wxmeddler]

850's are +8°C in Toronto and -12°C in Springfield, IL Maybe we can keep this around long enough to get a southern -NAO going. The 500mb 582dm line comes and touches Nova Scotia on the 180 hr. 12z Euro.

[AppsRunner]

12z GFS certainly looks interesting. 0z Euro basically punted, we'll see if the 12z run brings it back.

Yep, right now it looks pretty likely it will cut off, moreso a matter of where/when. At least there's a storm to watch.

On second look, ECMWF gives NWOH a couple tenths of an inch of precip with 850s below -5, first snow I've seen on the ECMWF for here.

[Thundersnow12]

12z ECMWF cuts it off too, though a bit farther north and east compared to the GFS.

Much of the GL/MW/OV see at least some snow, best accums over MN/WI/MI/IL.

Secondary SLP moves from Charlotte, NC to La Crosse.

have never seen that before, this is going to be fun to watch.

[A-L-E-K]

interesting evolution being shown by the models, doesn't look to deliver anything too wild but it's better than nothing.

[gosaints]

Looks nothing more than a September cutoff repeat right now. The fall looks to continue into december.

Really nothing more than a September cutoff. If the models right now are correct, which they probably are not someplace will see snow. That doesn't happen in september.

[wisconsinwx]

Really nothing more than a September cutoff. If the models right now are correct, which they probably are not someplace will see snow. That doesn't happen in september.

Yeah, I agree. Doesn't seem as moisture-laden, but the opportunity for a deformation band of light to moderate snow is more appealing than a chilly rain.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Looks nothing more than a September cutoff repeat right now. The fall looks to continue into december.

[cyclone77]

Kind of reminds me of the xmas '09 storm in a way on some of the guidance. Not as moisture laden or strong as that one, but the way the storm retrogrades northwest and loops is kind of similar. This is definitely gonna be entertaining/challenging to forecast over the next several days. (Might have to pop some real popcorn to eat while watching some of these model runs come out lol)

[AppsRunner]

Looks nothing more than a September cutoff repeat right now. The fall looks to continue into december.

Yeah, not even close

interesting evolution being shown by the models, doesn't look to deliver anything too wild but it's better than nothing.

Just going off accupro maps, the ECM gave parts of Ohio over 10" of snow... lol worthy but nice to see rather than upper 40s and rain.

[Thundersnow12]

FWIW the 18z NAM is slower, further south and closing off the southern stream wave at 84hr over southwest AZ where the 12z GFS has it quicker and further north around the four corners region at the same time (6z Friday). The GFS also has the wave coming into the pac NW alittle further south.