Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[SpartyOn]

Confirmed wet snow mixing in central Oakland county. Very large flakes. Changeover might be well ahead of planed. We shall see if this is just transient or local.

[dmc76]

Confirmed wet snow mixing in central Oakland county. Very large flakes. Changeover might be well ahead of planed. We shall see if this is just transient or local.

[hm8]

If I get anything more than 3 inches out of this in late november....I know who I want starting storm threads in the future.

1.77 inches of rain so far.

[KokomoWX]

HRRR 12Z run.

[roardog]

I like how temps are already in the mid 30s. The worst type of marginal situations are when the surface temp is like 40F or higher and you have to wait for the surface temps to cool off at least several degrees. In this case though, many are starting with surface temps already not much above freezing.

[KeenerWx]

HRRR 12Z run.

Darned HRRR keeps taking away from LAF's snow..

Still in line with the expectations of 2-3" though, so we're all good

[Chicago WX]

HRRR 12Z run.

Just kidding, well sucks for LAF, but I expect the best to be east and north of here anyway. Good luck Jim.

[on_wx]

I'm down at forwell creek its flowing out of its banks and approaching the path this is impressive

[Cory]

Correct me if i'm wrong isn't the HRRR initialized of 0z and 12z data so each hour off those runs becomes less reliable? Either way, yeah it's fickle but can catch some last minute trends. Good luck down there.

HRRR uses the WRF Rapid Refresh as its parent model, which in turn has its own constantly updating analysis system (it's not just blindly initialized off a forecast time from a synoptic hour parent model, in other words). It also ingests data from aircraft, satellite, profilers, and radar winds every hour to keep a refreshed upper-air picture.

[LizardMafia]

Getting some sleet mixing in here..

[on_wx]

The conservation authority is reporting river flooding at several sites throughout the watershed, but they have not issued a flood warning or flood advisory. There isn't even a heavy rain warning for 1.97"/24 hrs and we're already approaching 1.57" as far as I can tell.

[Chicago WX]

Getting some sleet mixing in here..

Just a steady rain here. Snow or no snow, should put up an impressive rainfall total when all is said and done.

Temp at my place going in the wrong direction, up 1 degree to 38º...

[KokomoWX]

Oh my. 13z HRRR

[Blizzard23]

How much snow is depicted in the heaviest red shade on the HRRR model?

[KokomoWX]

How much snow is depicted in the heaviest red shade on the HRRR model?

12-18"

[snowlord81]

Yep, my temp just went up from 39 to 41 after the precip lightened up Not getting my hopes up til I see snow falling. Alittle sleet mixing in here at the moment to. Good luck. The 13z HRRR looks great. Puts me in the heaviest snow band. Probably well overdone Id imagine.

[Chicago WX]

Oh my. 13z HRRR

EDIT: too late.

You didn't go all the way. Through, the entire run...there's 18" amounts showing up (pink).

[PatrickSumner]

Oh my. 13z HRRR

Cash it in Marion

[Chicago WX]

Yep, my temp just went up from 39 to 41 after the precip lightened up Not getting my hopes up til I see snow falling. Alittle sleet mixing in here at the moment to. Good luck. The 13z HRRR looks great. Puts me in the heaviest snow band. Probably well overdone Id imagine.

It's a yo yo. I've been watching HUF and they were at 37º, bounced up to 39º and now back down to 37º with mod rain. Still 38º here, but 37º at LAF. Going to be an agonizing wait.

[A-L-E-K]

HRRR uses the WRF Rapid Refresh as its parent model, which in turn has its own constantly updating analysis system (it's not just blindly initialized off a forecast time from a synoptic hour parent model, in other words). It also ingests data from aircraft, satellite, profilers, and radar winds every hour to keep a refreshed upper-air picture.

Thanks

FWIW i had mentioned 12"+ amounts with next to nothing a county or two over yesterday, i still think it's possible.

[RogueWaves]

Good luck to everyone in play, like I said yesterday it's a dynamic marginal temp situation...many will be let down and a few will will score huge.

FWIW I still like Lansing.

Thank you sir!

SW of Lansing, hoping to score the TSSN "lolipop" later this eve...

[snowlord81]

Your def. right, just checked and now my temp is down again to 39. Im not going to drive myself insane the first snow of the season I swear!

[Chicago WX]

Jives with what Mottster reported earlier. +PLRA at IND at last ob.

METAR KIND 291554Z 03008KT 1 1/2SM R05L/6000VP6000FT +PLRA BR SCT008 OVC014 04/03 A2973 RMK AO2 PLB17 SLP070 P0018 T00390028 $

[PatrickSumner]

Jives with what Mottster reported earlier. +PLRA at IND at last ob.

METAR KIND 291554Z 03008KT 1 1/2SM R05L/6000VP6000FT +PLRA BR SCT008 OVC014 04/03 A2973 RMK AO2 PLB17 SLP070 P0018 T00390028 $

Rain mixing with sleet now here in Marion.

[RogueWaves]

Or when it starts snowing....

This one is going to come down to a very thin wire. We're looking at quite a small geographical region right now. Well, with regards to potential warning type snows anyway.

Can't say I'd blame 'em...

MBY getting bombed per the CMC Environment Canada RGEM future cast:

[Chicago WX]

Evansville has flipped over to snow.

SPECI KEVV 291627Z 26005KT 1/2SM SN OVC007 01/M01 A2980 RMK AO2 RAE02SNB02 P0009 $

[Chicago WX]

Heh, the recent 12z RGEM p-type map says we should start mixing here around noon, all snow by 1PM. Not holding my breath on that transpiring.

[KeenerWx]

Can't say I'd blame 'em...

Oh, me neither.

These kinds of situations you can't really do much but sit and wait for mother nature to take her course. They issued a watch, the public knows about the potential, so they are doing their job.

[weatherbo]

definite very light rain/snow mix in N Kosciusko.

[snowlord81]

Fat snow flakes here.