Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[Stevo6899]

Looks like freezing rain and unknown pecip is being reported near lansing and coldwater. Think the changeover may occur earlier and someone may get dumped on.

[PatrickSumner]

Looks like freezing rain and unknown pecip is being reported near lansing and coldwater. Think the changeover may occur earlier and someone may get dumped on.

Actually seeing what appears to be a few snowflakes mixing in with a band of rain currently moving though Marion...

[KeenerWx]

If I had to be anywhere today, it would be in the corridor between Lagrange, IN and Coldwater, MI...think someone up there has a shot at a foot of snow given the (possible) convective nature of the snow.

[PatrickSumner]

OK I CONFIRM THIS: Snowflakes def mixing in here in Marion, INDIANA

[B-Rent]

20 min ago was all rain in Anderson. I'm all tucked in bed and warm not looking now.

Sent from my ADR6400L

[PatrickSumner]

20 min ago was all rain in Anderson. I'm all tucked in bed and warm not looking now.

Sent from my ADR6400L

Not me! I am out it in it! lol. It's just a few flakes, but interesting nonetheless.

[B-Rent]

I hope to wake up around full switch over time

Sent from my ADR6400L

[dmc76]

Frustrating way to begin the winter but ya gotta stay positive. Enjoy the snow those to my west.

Western Half of Macomb should get couple Inches.

All ready reporting snow in Saginaw

[AppsRunner]

Looks like some of the hi res models are suggesting a couple inches here... I'm thinking 2-4" for most of NWOH, with 3-7" in extreme NWOH...

[RogueWaves]

If I had to be anywhere today, it would be in the corridor between Lagrange, IN and Coldwater, MI...think someone up there has a shot at a foot of snow given the (possible) convective nature of the snow.

I'm in Marshall, about 20 miles north of Coldwater. MBY appears to be exactly in the crosshairs of the HPC maps. On top of that, I work in K'zoo (see text below). Patiently waiting to get "owned" by this storm..

From N. Indiana NWS AFD:

BLENDED MULTI-MODEL QPF WAS UTILIZED TO DAMPEN MUCH HIGHER HIGHRES

GUIDANCE WHILE OFFSETTING LWR BOUND SPECTRAL GUIDANCE. THIS GIVES SIMILAR

AMOUNTS W/HPC YET PREFER A HEDGE WWD PLACEMENT OF MORE SIG SNOW BAND.

THROUGH 05Z...5 INCH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACRS WRN TN. HIGHER

AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...EVEN LIKELY...ESP CONSIDERING ALL

HIGHRES SOLUTIONS IMPLYING LOW TOPPED CONVN THIS AFTN WITHIN MID LVL

DEFORMATION ZONE ACRS NRN IN/SRN MI AND SREF PROBS OF 1+ INCH/HR

SNOW RATES EXCEED 70% THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND 2+ PROBS EXCEEDING

30%. NR TERM 06Z RUNS OF HRRR/RUC BOTH CONFIRMING FASTER CHG OVR AND

DVLPMNT OF 40+ DBZ RTNS THIS AFTN WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE THUS

W/GROWING LIKELIHOOD OF EXTREME SNOWFALL RATES...POTENTIAL ACCUMS

MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN W/SOME EXPERIMENTAL

HIGHRES SNOW ALGORITHMS INDICATING A FOOT PLUS ALG A WARSAW TO

KALAMAZOO LINE. THUS GIVEN TIMING OF CHG OVR WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL

BFR THE AFTN COMMUTE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHORT DURATION/6+ INCH SNOW

AMOUNTS WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM EARLY AFTN THROUGH 06Z

FOR GENERALLY THE WRN 2/3RDS OF CWA. FRINGE COUNTIES ALG BOTH SIDES

ARE PROBLEMATIC ESP FAR NW WHERE DVLPMNT OF STG ISOLLABARIC FLW XPCD

THIS AFTN OFF LK MI SHLD MODIFY THE BNDRY LYR SUFFICIENTLY TO

PROMOTE MORE OF A MIX AND NEGLIGIBLE ACCUMS...AND EAST W/SPECTRALMODEL

CONSENSUS MUCH SLWR LIFTING INTENSE DEFORMATION ZONE BAND OUTTHIS EVENING.

THUS THE NOD TWD A WATCH VS WARNING AT THIS POINT AND

IN LIGHT OF CHG OVR TIMING UNCERTAINTIES STILL.

[KeenerWx]

I'm in Marshall, about 20 miles north of Coldwater. MBY appears to be exactly in the crosshairs of the HPC maps. On top of that, I work in K'zoo (see text below). Patiently waiting to get "owned" by this storm..

You will most certainly get owned. Enjoy tracking the storm's progress. It's gonna be a wet snow so it should look pretty fantastic outside. Post some pics when it's all said and done!

[AppsRunner]

Hillsdale, MI already reporting snow.

[KeenerWx]

Pure rain over here in lala land...

According to the mesoscale models, we should start mixing around 15z-16z (2-3 hrs). However, looking at the upper air data, it looks like we still have a decent warm tongue up there.

We shall wait and see..part of the excitement!

[on_wx]

It's been pouring here all night, but the weather station only has 1mm of rain I'm 24 hrs. What a terrible time for the rain gauge to break down

[Chicago WX]

08Z run of HRRR has LAF mixing with snow starting at around the 14-16Z period, changing to all snow around 18Z. Heaviest snow between 19-21Z..

At least 0.5 seems to fall as frozen...

Total snow accumulation looks to be 3-6", 8-10" not far east of here. Gradient looks absurd around here, 1" in extreme NW Tippecanoe Cty, 8"+ in extreme SE Tippecanoe County. Ultimate breadwinners are going to be North Central/Northeast Indiana into South Central MI.

Also, take a look at the IWX AFD..has some goodies in it

It's times like this I'm glad I live on the east side.

IND's call of 2-4" seems good, with locally higher amounts possible. This is pretty cool.

[PatrickSumner]

It's times like this I'm glad I live on the east side.

IND's call of 2-4" seems good, with locally higher amounts possible. This is pretty cool.

If I am looking correctly, the deformation band itself doesn't really seem to be very well established yet.

[LizardMafia]

I really hope that any accumulation can hold off until after 6pm.. Otherwise it will be a long drive home from Carmel to Lebanon.. Of course with it being the first snowfall, maybe that'll take some of the pain away..

[PatrickSumner]

It's times like this I'm glad I live on the east side.

IND's call of 2-4" seems good, with locally higher amounts possible. This is pretty cool.

I certainly don't like that the heaviest band is setting itself up well west of I69...BOO.

[Chicago WX]

If I am looking correctly, the deformation band itself doesn't really seem to be very well established yet.

It's starting to. I think most of the models had it getting its complete act together by early afternoon, as the system strengthens.

Temp down to 37º at my place. 1.01" liquid total at LAF through 8AM.

[KeenerWx]

It's times like this I'm glad I live on the east side.

IND's call of 2-4" seems good, with locally higher amounts possible. This is pretty cool.

Might come over to your place, then.

[Chicago WX]

I really hope that any accumulation can hold off until after 6pm.. Otherwise it will be a long drive home from Carmel to Lebanon.. Of course with it being the first snowfall, maybe that'll take some of the pain away..

Disaster. Won't be pretty.

[KeenerWx]

I certainly don't like that the heaviest band is setting itself up well west of I69...BOO.

It's the HRRR. It changes quite frequently. This will come down to nowcasting more than anything. I'm pretty sure the 10z version of the HRRR had Marion in the "sweet spot" with 8-10".

[LizardMafia]

I certainly don't like that the heaviest band is setting itself up well west of I69...BOO.

A little patience can go a long way..

[A-L-E-K]

Good luck to everyone in play, like I said yesterday it's a dynamic marginal temp situation...many will be let down and a few will will score huge.

FWIW I still like Lansing.

[Chicago WX]

It's the HRRR. It changes quite frequently. This will come down to nowcasting more than anything. I'm pretty sure the 10z version of the HRRR had Marion in the "sweet spot" with 8-10".

lol, yeah it does change quite a bit. Last two runs have seemed to have "settled" on 3-6" across all of Tippecanoe County. That works for me. Warsaw, Angola up through southern MI get rocked with 10"+ amounts showing up. Awesome.

[PatrickSumner]

lol, yeah it does change quite a bit. Last two runs have seemed to have "settled" on 3-6" across all of Tippecanoe County. That works for me. Warsaw, Angola up through southern MI get rocked with 10"+ amounts showing up. Awesome.

I just get anxious with the first "potential" big snowfall. When do you all think IWX, DTX, and GRR will decide on whether to upgrade to warning or not???

[A-L-E-K]

lol, yeah it does change quite a bit. Last two runs have seemed to have "settled" on 3-6" across all of Tippecanoe County. That works for me. Warsaw, Angola up through southern MI get rocked with 10"+ amounts showing up. Awesome.

Correct me if i'm wrong isn't the HRRR initialized of 0z and 12z data so each hour off those runs becomes less reliable? Either way, yeah it's fickle but can catch some last minute trends. Good luck down there.

[Chicago WX]

I just get anxious with the first "potential" big snowfall. When do you all think IWX, DTX, and GRR will decide on whether to upgrade to warning or not???

I assume they'll update soon, by the 11:00AM package or thereabouts.

Correct me if i'm wrong isn't the HRRR initialized of 0z and 12z data so each hour off those runs becomes less reliable? Either way, yeah it's fickle but can catch some last minute trends. Good luck down there.

I haven't a clue to be honest, but that makes sense.

And thanks for the well wishes.

[on_wx]

A private weather station on Benjamin has recorded 1.22" of rain today in Waterloo. The airport reported 0.30" of rain in the last hour.

Impressive. There is ponding on the grass and probably some flash flooding out there right now.

[KeenerWx]

I assume they'll update soon, by the 11:00AM package or thereabouts.

Or when it starts snowing....

This one is going to come down to a very thin wire. We're looking at quite a small geographical region right now. Well, with regards to potential warning type snows anyway.