Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[snowlord81]

Which county next to you?

I moved about 7 miles closer to you this summer, I live between Anderson and Lapel now. Just FYI for comparing obs.

Boone to my west, and Delaware to my east.

[B-Rent]

Saying its going to completely dryslot me out in Madison? hahah

[dmc76]

Good. When they and dtx do that we usually end up doing well.

Heres my thinking...

East of 75 south of 59 1-2" less along shoreline

north of 59 west of 23 south of 69 2-6"

south of 59 west of 75 east of 23 2-4"

north of 69 4-8"

west of 23 4-9"

Downriver 1" or less

Detroit basically 1-2"

Pontiac 2-4"

Mt Clemens 1-3"

Flint 3-7"

Lansing 4-9"

[Hoosier]

After reviewing the 00z runs sans Euro, I'm bumping my call for LAF to 2-4". Was tempted to go a little higher given the 00z NAM indicating >8 tenths qpf falling as snow but still a little uncertainty on exact changeover time and likely loss/reduction of initial snow accumulation due to residual warmth. Do expect a period of mod/hvy snow with rates possibly approaching 1" per hour during the afternoon. Will revisit this tomorrow and hope for a consensus along the lines of the 00z NAM.

[PatrickSumner]

Heres my thinking...

East of 75 south of 59 1-2" less along shoreline

north of 59 west of 23 south of 69 2-6"

south of 59 west of 75 east of 23 2-4"

north of 69 4-8"

west of 23 4-9"

Downriver 1" or less

Detroit basically 1-2"

Pontiac 2-4"

Mt Clemens 1-3"

Flint 3-7"

Lansing 4-9"

Seems very reasonable. The deformation band is evident in Kentucky right now...beautiful...

[dmc76]

Seems very reasonable. The deformation band is evident in Kentucky right now...beautiful...

Interesting storm for sure. Weird to see it snow south of the low

[kab2791]

Going to give Euro precip for:

LAF

FWA

BTL

MOP

DTW

PTK

Any other city wanted?

[dmc76]

Going to give Euro precip for:

LAF

FWA

BTL

MOP

DTW

PTK

Any other city wanted?

FNT and PHN

[snowlord81]

Saying its going to completely dryslot me out in Madison? hahah

Ehh, I think we will both see snow, thats all I know. Im thinking 2-4 inches for my area. Maybe 1-3 out in eastern indiana. No complaints from me as long as it snows.

[on_wx]

Going to give Euro precip for:

LAF

FWA

BTL

MOP

DTW

PTK

Any other city wanted?

Waterloo ON

[PatrickSumner]

Waterloo ON

Marion, IN to please

[snowlord81]

After reviewing the 00z runs sans Euro, I'm bumping my call for LAF to 2-4". Was tempted to go a little higher given the 00z NAM indicating >8 tenths qpf falling as snow but still a little uncertainty on exact changeover time and likely loss/reduction of initial snow accumulation due to residual warmth. Do expect a period of mod/hvy snow with rates possibly approaching 1" per hour during the afternoon. Will revisit this tomorrow and hope for a consensus along the lines of the 00z NAM.

I think thats a lock for you guys! Good luck. After the 00z runs Im left alittle worried here in Central Hamilton county. I seem to be on the fringe of the good stuff. Hoping the EURO holds steady. What are your thoughts for areas east of LAF?

[kab2791]

00Z Euro

LAF

TUE 12Z 29-NOV   1.7 	3.7    1009      98 	100    0.51 	557 	550    
TUE 18Z 29-NOV   1.2    -1.9    1011      96      99    0.42 	550 	541    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.8    -5.1    1013      91      94    0.40 	547 	537    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.5    -3.3    1014      79   	2    0.03 	547 	536 

FWA

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   2.8    -1.7    1009      95 	100    0.27 	550 	543    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.8    -4.8    1009      96      98    0.54 	544 	537    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.9    -4.4    1010      88      91    0.58 	542 	534    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -0.4    -0.3    1013      82      23    0.07 	546 	536  

BTL

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   1.3 	1.5    1010      85 	100    0.37 	555 	547    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.7    -5.5    1011      90      92    0.30 	547 	539    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -1.4    -3.4    1010      79      74    0.39 	543 	535    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -2.4    -1.0    1012      76      11    0.02 	545 	535 

MOP

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   2.3    -1.0    1013      79      76    0.07 	556 	545    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.9    -5.0    1012      72      60    0.08 	549 	540    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.6    -2.0    1009      63      60    0.09 	544 	536 

DTW

WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.6    -2.1    1005      97      95    0.49 	545 	541    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.7    -5.8    1004      91      91    0.26 	539 	535    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -1.2    -5.1    1009      76      76    0.17 	541 	534   
WED 18Z 30-NOV   2.1 	0.9    1013      55      16    0.01 	549 	538

PTK

WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.9    -2.0    1006      96 	100    0.47 	547 	542    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.0    -6.3    1005      92      93    0.43 	540 	536    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -1.8    -4.2    1008      70      55    0.21 	541 	535 

FNT

WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.7    -3.2    1008      97 	100    0.40 	548 	542    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.7    -6.2    1006      91      99    0.54 	541 	536    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -1.8    -3.4    1009      67      34    0.20 	542 	535

PHN

WED 00Z 30-NOV   2.9    -0.1    1004      96 	100    0.49 	548 	544    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   1.8    -4.3    1002      97      46    0.29 	539 	537    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -0.5    -6.3    1006      84      98    0.27 	538 	534  
WED 18Z 30-NOV   2.3    -0.7    1012      52      16    0.10 	547 	537   
WED 18Z 30-NOV   1.2    -1.0    1014      61      26    0.00 	549 	538

MZZ

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   2.0    -2.4    1009      98     100    0.29     548     541    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.7    -5.2    1010      96      98    0.44     544     536    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.4    -4.5    1012      86      66    0.43     544     535   

[AppsRunner]

Why is the ECMWF doing this to me... over .4"+ of likely frozen precip... compared to less than an inch of snow on the NAM/GFS.

[Hoosier]

I think thats a lock for you guys! Good luck. After the 00z runs Im left alittle worried here in Central Hamilton county. I seem to be on the fringe of the good stuff. Hoping the EURO holds steady. What are your thoughts for areas east of LAF?

Still like 3-6" for OKK/Marion area with amounts falling off fairly quickly south/east of there. 1-3" for much of the I-70 corridor although if the NAM is right then some of that area could see heavier amounts.

[dmc76]

Between PTK and FNT looking good

thanks KAB

[B-Rent]

Still like 3-6" for OKK/Marion area with amounts falling off fairly quickly south/east of there. 1-3" for much of the I-70 corridor although if the NAM is right then some of that area could see heavier amounts.

I'm sticking with 3" here for Anderson, but I think that might be an over performance.

[Hoosier]

I'm sticking with 3" here for Anderson, but I think that might be an over performance.

Fun event to track regardless of how it turns out. Kinda wish we would've had an easy clipper for the first real threat though lol

[snowlord81]

I'm sticking with 3" here for Anderson, but I think that might be an over performance.

Well the 00z EURO is pretty similar to its 12z run so that makes me feel a bit better. I guess we will see.

[snowlord81]

Fun event to track regardless of how it turns out. Kinda wish we would've had an easy clipper for the first real threat though lol

Yep, with plenty of cold air at all levels/no precip issues to worry about/dryslots etc.

[Hoosier]

Dynamic cooling at work

[Geos]

Cold air is streaming into the storm through Illinois. It was supposed to be 35° for a low tonight on Chicago's northern burbs, but it's 30° and still dropping! 50 miles to the south of me it's 40°. For anybody not near Lake Michigan in along the IN/IL border area, you might see a quicker change over to snow. No snow here to speak of - just wind and cold, except one model from WGN showed some lake effect mix tomorrow - albeit light.

I hope someone cashes in good for snow in MI or IN!

[Thundersnow12]

RUC progging 925mb winds of 50kts tomorrow morning in northeast IL tomorrow morning coming in off the lake, its going to be quite windy.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Euro has me getting 2-4 inches according to wundermap.

Seems fishy to me.

Haven't seen a flake yet.

[Ajdos]

Winter Storm Watches have been posted for S/E Michigan, except the eastern counties!

[B-Rent]

First winter product of the season!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

338 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE

THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN OHIO TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...COLDER AIR

WILL BE PULLED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND INTO CENTRAL

INDIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGEOVER TO

SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING. AREAS NORTH OF A

CRAWFORDSVILLE TO NOBLESVILLE TO NEW CASTLE LINE MAY SEE TWO TO

FOUR INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM LAFAYETTE EAST THROUGH FLORA AND

KOKOMO.

INZ021-028>031-035>042-049-291645-

/O.NEW.KIND.WW.Y.0006.111129T1800Z-111130T0600Z/

CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-

BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HENRY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...

CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE

338 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO

1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS

AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON

AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY BE RAPIDLY REDUCED

AT TIMES WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE

FROM LAFAYETTE EAST THROUGH FLORA AND KOKOMO.

* TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE

EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

[KeenerWx]

Winter Storm Watches hoisted for IWX counties...4-8" locally more...

[KeenerWx]

Logansport/Kokomo-Warsaw-Angola-right through the thumb of Michigan look good for possibly 6"+ of snow..

New HPC graphics..

Also a slgt risk of 12"+ for the area under the mdt 8"+

IND mentions the possibility of tssn. Gotta love these early winter threats--going to be glued to the window this afternoon. Here in Lafayette, I think 2-3" looks good, with snowfall amts quickly rising to the east and northeast. Kokomo looks good for at least 5" of snow.

Would imagine LOT would hoist a WWA for at least Porter/Jasper/Benton counties. These areas have a decent shot at 2-3".

[Stevo6899]

Winter Storm Watches have been posted for S/E Michigan, except the eastern counties!

Frustrating way to begin the winter but ya gotta stay positive. Enjoy the snow those to my west.

[KeenerWx]

08Z run of HRRR has LAF mixing with snow starting at around the 14-16Z period, changing to all snow around 18Z. Heaviest snow between 19-21Z..

At least 0.5 seems to fall as frozen...

Total snow accumulation looks to be 3-6", 8-10" not far east of here. Gradient looks absurd around here, 1" in extreme NW Tippecanoe Cty, 8"+ in extreme SE Tippecanoe County. Ultimate breadwinners are going to be North Central/Northeast Indiana into South Central MI.

Also, take a look at the IWX AFD..has some goodies in it