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Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Looking at soundings, GUS, OKK, and FWA looks nice on the NAM. I'd almost hedge and say 4"+ are possible in those spots, but I don't want to jinx anyone. :whistle:

Low levels still too warm here. Sticking with my 1-2" thoughts.

I'd go with 1-3" with isolated higher amounts for LAF. 00z NAM starts to change you guys over around 18z. Would think it would be all snow by at least 21z, and the NAM drops close to 0.50" of beyond 21z. The warm ground should very quickly be overcome by the higher rates of the snowfall. The large/wet flakes should no doubt assist in initial accumulations on grassy surfaces as well. Don't want to jinx you guys or anything, but I wouldn't be surprised if you see more than 3".

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

NAM extracted text for FWA. TSSN!!! :snowman:

  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 11/29 00Z   37     36      37      13    0.00  0.00    554    566    7.8 -13.3 1014 100 -RA   017OVC292    0.0   15.0
  3 11/29 03Z   38     37      43      15    0.05  0.00    555    565    8.6 -13.0 1012 100 RA    014OVC280    0.0    5.0
  6 11/29 06Z   38     37      30      19    0.43  0.01    556    564   10.0 -13.9 1009 100 -TSRA 013OVC363    0.0    2.5
  9 11/29 09Z   38     37      33      18    0.81  0.00    556    562    9.3 -12.9 1007 100 RA    013OVC346    0.0    5.9
 12 11/29 12Z   37     36      25      16    0.14  0.00    553    559    8.1 -14.2 1006 100 -RA   013OVC106    0.0    9.3
 15 11/29 15Z   37     35      36      14    0.23  0.01    550    556    3.9 -16.0 1007 100 -TSRA 008OVC248    0.0    1.3
 18 11/29 18Z   37     36      37       8    0.21  0.01    543    549   -1.9 -19.8 1007 100 RA    008OVC234    0.0    1.9
 21 11/29 21Z   35     33     343      10    0.21  0.02    540    545   -3.0 -20.8 1006 100 TSSN  008OVC212    2.0    2.5
 24 11/30 00Z   33     32     343      16    0.16  0.00    537    543   -3.6 -21.6 1007 100 -SN   007OVC173    1.6    1.0
 27 11/30 03Z   32     31     338      17    0.12  0.00    536    543   -4.4 -21.2 1007 100 SN    007OVC249    1.2    0.4
 30 11/30 06Z   30     30     328      16    0.17  0.00    535    542   -4.9 -21.5 1008 100 -SN   008OVC197    1.7    0.5
 33 11/30 09Z   30     29     318      15    0.09  0.00    535    543   -3.5 -21.5 1009 100 -SN   008OVC122    0.9    1.5

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PatrickSumner

PatrickSumner

Posted
Posted

NAM extracted text for FWA. TSSN!!! :snowman:

  HR Valid 	2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in. 	Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 11/29 00Z   37 	36      37      13    0.00  0.00    554    566    7.8 -13.3 1014 100 -RA   017OVC292    0.0   15.0
  3 11/29 03Z   38 	37      43      15    0.05  0.00    555    565    8.6 -13.0 1012 100 RA    014OVC280    0.0    5.0
  6 11/29 06Z   38 	37      30      19    0.43  0.01    556    564   10.0 -13.9 1009 100 -TSRA 013OVC363    0.0    2.5
  9 11/29 09Z   38 	37      33      18    0.81  0.00    556    562    9.3 -12.9 1007 100 RA    013OVC346    0.0    5.9
 12 11/29 12Z   37 	36      25      16    0.14  0.00    553    559    8.1 -14.2 1006 100 -RA   013OVC106    0.0    9.3
 15 11/29 15Z   37 	35      36      14    0.23  0.01    550    556    3.9 -16.0 1007 100 -TSRA 008OVC248    0.0    1.3
 18 11/29 18Z   37 	36      37   	8    0.21  0.01    543    549   -1.9 -19.8 1007 100 RA    008OVC234    0.0    1.9
 21 11/29 21Z   35 	33 	343      10    0.21  0.02    540    545   -3.0 -20.8 1006 100 TSSN  008OVC212    2.0    2.5
 24 11/30 00Z   33 	32 	343      16    0.16  0.00    537    543   -3.6 -21.6 1007 100 -SN   007OVC173    1.6    1.0
 27 11/30 03Z   32 	31 	338      17    0.12  0.00    536    543   -4.4 -21.2 1007 100 SN    007OVC249    1.2    0.4
 30 11/30 06Z   30 	30 	328      16    0.17  0.00    535    542   -4.9 -21.5 1008 100 -SN   008OVC197    1.7    0.5
 33 11/30 09Z   30 	29 	318      15    0.09  0.00    535    543   -3.5 -21.5 1009 100 -SN   008OVC122    0.9    1.5

What is the NAM looking like for Marion???

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I'd go with 1-3" with isolated higher amounts for LAF. 00z NAM starts to change you guys over around 18z. Would think it would be all snow by at least 21z, and the NAM drops close to 0.50" of beyond 21z. The warm ground should very quickly be overcome by the higher rates of the snowfall. The large/wet flakes should no doubt assist in initial accumulations on grassy surfaces as well. Don't want to jinx you guys or anything, but I wouldn't be surprised if you see more than 3".

Yep, your call/reasoning looks good. I just lean conservative in these changeover type deals. I can't recall one working out too well here in the past.

0z NAM extracted text does bring some heavy snowfall rates, 1"/hour for awhile. We'll see, hopefully if breaks right.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Warm, moist ground and early time of the year are way overrated. You guys are really lowballing LAF imo (I do understand the cautious part though).

Here, eh, idk. 00z NAM takes the good deform north (and of course west) of here, gives DTW 0.18" of precip in the form of snow falling in the overnight tomorrow. (18z gave 0.60" as snow). Considering 24 hours ago I expected NO measurable snow out of this, Id certainly take it. But oh, for that band to just swing a bit east. Also, appears there may be a bit of a lull (not a break) between the heavy rain and the deform rain to snow.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Goes from 6+ inches in the NW part of my county then 2 inches in the SE. Im dead in the middle! Id take a blend of this and the EURO and call it a day. Chad still calling for up to an inch in LAF after viewing the new models. What is he looking at??

Don't know, dude is more conservative than I am. :arrowhead:

I did just check his blog and he said he had some flakes mixed in with rain earlier. Nothing like that here at my place as far as I know.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

As it looks now, looks like I may get a little accumulating snow, being on the far eastern fringe of the snow shield...and a VERY early look at next weekend looks like I will also be on the eastern fringe of a much larger snow shield. Hope something changes, not fun living on the edge! Though it will be nice to see the first measurable snow if it does happen tomorrow night.

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