Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[Thundersnow12]

There's going to be some sick banded precip all along that stalled deform zone tomorrow afternoon/evening. Makes you think there could be some isolated bands of heavy snow accumulations where they stall out. May cause for some wide variations in accumulations across a given county. Gonna be interesting.

yep most likely just to the east of here

[dmc76]

Lol

NWS still has under half an inch...earlier it was around one inch. weather.com has us at less then one inch and accuweather has us at 3.4"

[AppsRunner]

NWOH does even better on the ECMWF... DFI looking at a solid 6" or so.

[cyclone77]

yep most likely just to the east of here

The op 12z NAM shows a half inch of precip as far west as Chicago, with 1" in the southern suburbs. Wouldn't take much more cold air to make it a very interesting forecast for Chicago. The fact that there may be rain WEST of the main snow band tomorrow night makes it even more difficult a forecast lol. Definitely worth watching though.

[SpartyOn]

Funny that we still have almost another 2 model cycles too go before this is nailed.

[A-L-E-K]

The op 12z NAM shows a half inch of precip as far west as Chicago, with 1" in the southern suburbs. Wouldn't take much more cold air to make it a very interesting forecast for Chicago. The fact that there may be rain WEST of the main snow band tomorrow night makes it even more difficult a forecast lol. Definitely worth watching though.

I think a warm onshore flow in an already marginal thermal setup combined with lighter precip rates will keep any white stuff in all of chicagoland limited to slushy mixing. As for central Michigan, these kind of setup often deliver big for a very localized area that goes over early under enhanced banding. We'll probably see warning amounts with almost nothing a county over.

[Chicago WX]

12z Euro continues to suggest a potential earlier changeover.

12Z Euro (colder and dryer for some locales) Congrats FWA/DTW/PTK

LAF

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   1.6    -1.8    1011      97     100    0.40     552     543    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   2.0    -5.2    1013      86      77    0.40     548     538    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.9    -3.6    1015      72       3    0.02     548     536    

Those surface temps are ugg-lee. That's the one mitigating thing for me going all in for here. As it is, farther east and north are gonna cash.

[cyclone77]

FWIW Skilling (WGN) is going with 4-6" from LAF up to Flint.

[PatrickSumner]

Those surface temps are ugg-lee. That's the one mitigating thing for me going all in for here. As it is, farther east and north are gonna cash.

Hoosier and Chicago WX...Do you have an educated guess on how much snow you believe will fall here in Marion, IN???

[Chicago WX]

FWIW Skilling (WGN) is going with 4-6" from LAF up to Flint.

Probably little chance we're getting to 4" in LAF though, unless it breaks 100% perfectly. But there's a chance...keep hope alive!

[A-L-E-K]

FWIW Skilling (WGN) is going with 4-6" from LAF up to Flint.

Decent call, although i think broad brushed calls are going to be tough. Somewhat odd evolution aside, we've seen setups like this a lot, especially early season, tight gradients are the rule and areas including those that go over to snow but don't see high enough precip rates will see their totals killed by warm surface/ground temps.

This is really quick and sloppy with little attention paid to the northern fringe but I like 1-2" in the light blue and 3-12" in the dark blue.

[an uncanny otter]

The eastern edge of the snowfall is so close to my area that it hurts. Probably won't see much more than some non-accumulating wet snow out of this, but I'll take what I can get. Still hoping for some impossible miracle for the snow to shift 100 miles east or so

[Hoosier]

Those surface temps are ugg-lee. That's the one mitigating thing for me going all in for here. As it is, farther east and north are gonna cash.

Honestly it looks a tad too warm to me given the 850 mb temps and good precip rates. This isn't the first run of the Euro to suggest a quicker arrival of colder air aloft so maybe the window for us ends up being more like 18-21z.

[Chicago WX]

Hoosier and Chicago WX...Do you have an educated guess on how much snow you believe will fall here in Marion, IN???

I think there's a decent chance at Marion getting to 4", but would probably lean conservative and say 2-4" right now...if we use the 12z GFS and Euro and throwing out the farther west band of the NAM. All subject to change of course.

[AppsRunner]

Decent call, although i think broad brushed calls are going to be tough. Somewhat odd evolution aside, we've seen setups like this a lot, especially early season, tight gradients are the rule and areas including those that go over to snow but don't see high enough precip rates will see their totals killed by warm surface/ground temps.

This is really quick and sloppy with little attention paid to the northern fringe but I like 1-2" in the light blue and 3-12" in the dark blue.

Nothing for OH?

[snowlord81]

Honestly it looks a tad too warm to me given the 850 mb temps and good precip rates. This isn't the first run of the Euro to suggest a quicker arrival of colder air aloft so maybe the window for us ends up being more like 18-21z.

This is the 1st time I can recall the EURO being on my side lol NAM is a bit to far west for me to get anything more than 2 inches. GFS is about the same. As long as it snows I have no complaints. But heck, with as marginal as this situation is, I hope we can cash in and get lucky!

[cyclone77]

I think there's a decent chance at Marion getting to 4", but would probably lean conservative and say 2-4" right now...if we use the 12z GFS and Euro and throwing out the farther west band of the NAM. All subject to change of course.

Yeah no doubt the smart thing would be to stay conservative. I'd include "isolated higher amounts possible" in my forecast anywhere from Indiana to Michigan, as there will no doubt be isolated areas that approach or exceed warning criteria. NWS offices will need to keep a close eye on short-term trends later tomorrow, as things could get quite out of hand in a hurry in a situation like this.

[A-L-E-K]

Nothing for OH?

I paid little attention to the margins as my main intention was to show that most people who see snow, will see relatively light accums. extreme NW OH probably falls within 1-3" range. I think warm air will be more of a problem down there and the best defo forcing will setup NW into central michigan.

[A-L-E-K]

Yeah no doubt the smart thing would be to stay conservative. I'd include "isolated higher amounts possible" in my forecast anywhere from Indiana to Michigan, as there will no doubt be isolated areas that approach or exceed warning criteria. NWS offices will need to keep a close eye on short-term trends later tomorrow, as things could get quite out of hand in a hurry in a situation like this.

yep, situation is still very fluid.

[Chicago WX]

Honestly it looks a tad too warm to me given the 850 mb temps and good precip rates. This isn't the first run of the Euro to suggest a quicker arrival of colder air aloft so maybe the window for us ends up being more like 18-21z.

You may have a point. 850 temps are plenty cool enough on the 12z Euro, but it must have some shallow low level "torch".

Looking over the wunderground snowfall maps for the Euro, it has us snowing at 30 hours, but it really starts to crank once it gets east/northeast of us.

[A-L-E-K]

You may have a point. 850 temps are plenty cool enough on the 12z Euro, but it must have some shallow low level "torch".

Looking over the wunderground snowfall maps for the Euro, it has us snowing at 30 hours, but it really starts to crank once it gets east/northeast of us.

This, i think the rates are going to be crucial to seeing decent accums, not all .3" of QPF are created equal, when surface temps are marginal and the ground is warm and wet, you're going to need a period of mod/heavy snow to get things going.

[hm8]

John Dee's call

[Chicago WX]

This, i think the rates are going to be crucial to seeing decent accums, not all .3" of QPF are created equal, when surface temps are marginal and the ground is warm and wet, you're going to need a period of mod/heavy snow to get things going.

No doubt. Ground is and will be even more saturated by recent/near future rains. Making hay when there's hay to be made will be critical. Should be fun.

[cyclone77]

John Dee's call

Looks okay, but I'd include a lot more of Ohio in that. Should definitely be some accumulations there as the tail of the deform swings through later on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

[Jonger]

John Dee's call

I'd hit it.

[Hoosier]

At this point I like an inch or less for areas of Indiana south of I-70 with 1-3" north of there. 3-6" roughly from OKK-Marion northward toward Plymouth/Ft Wayne. Then 6-9" with isolated higher amounts possible from about Elkhart and northeastward into lower Michigan.

[snowlord81]

LAF guys, Chad at WLFI says no to snow! .2in to .7in. Thoughts?

[Chicago WX]

LAF guys, Chad at WLFI says no to snow! .2in to .7in. Thoughts?

Meh. He's terrible.

[snowlord81]

Probably a good call Hoosier. Alot of variables in play.

[cyclone77]

This thread's gonna be fun to look back on after the storm. I'm sure there's going to be some big surprises with this storm, both good and bad. Hopefully more good than bad lol.