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Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Harry

Harry

Posted
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Great post. I think everyone would echo this sentiment. Welcome aboard Mr. Deedler.

Back on topic, at least it looks like the 12z Euro ensembles don't completely dismiss this happening...

Yep. A number of it's members shows the potential. A couple really bomb the thing in S.MI down to sub 980mb.

So the potential is there. Something to watch for the next few days anyways.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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NP.

Keep it a lil further east ( like the OP Run showed ) and all will be good. :P

That's the bad thing about this hobby...we can't lock in 168+ hour maps. :guitar:

Regardless, I always like seeing what the Fall, in this case late Fall, storm tracks have to offer. Sometimes a decent sign for the first half of winter.

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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This is OT, but wxhstn74, I want to thank you for taking the time to post here. I look forward to reading your analysis and thoughts this winter. It's great to have another seasoned veteran in our sub forum. I have no formal meteorological training, but I have a real love for studying the weather, particularly here in the Midwest. I have learned a great deal from those who post here. As a member of the Emergency Management community and a Skywarn officer, this is another tool in my belt. Once again, welcome.

EDIT: I think michsnowfreak is on vacation, but he will be ecstatic to find you posting here. He has been our resident Detroit historian here for a few years.

I know him well. I picked Josh to be our official snowfall observer last year (and now this year too) for DTW. As one of my duties and climate guy in the office, I needed an observer near the airport. I met him years ago when he had read my statements/articles online and told me he loved weather. He asked me if he could come up and look at the

old records (actually the records I took care of, we have the original observations records back into the 1870s) ! He's kept in contact on/off and when the job came

up he was more than willing. ;-) He might have mentioned me here on occasional because he was a fan of my outlooks.

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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I visited the DTX office this past May and couldn't help but bring up the where abouts of Deedler. It was funny though because the 74 storm was brought in a water cooler conversation with Rich. Either way welcome to AmericanWX!

Yeah I retired (4/23) just before you came up.

Tks, Bill

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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This is OT, but wxhstn74, I want to thank you for taking the time to post here. I look forward to reading your analysis and thoughts this winter. It's great to have another seasoned veteran in our sub forum. I have no formal meteorological training, but I have a real love for studying the weather, particularly here in the Midwest. I have learned a great deal from those who post here. As a member of the Emergency Management community and a Skywarn officer, this is another tool in my belt. Once again, welcome.

EDIT: I think michsnowfreak is on vacation, but he will be ecstatic to find you posting here. He has been our resident Detroit historian here for a few years.

This goes for me too. I have learned and gained the most knowledge from these forums sinced I joined Eastern several years ago when I really got into Meteorology in HS (looking at models etc) and now a met major in college. It's beyond awesome having some many good mets on here willing to take the time to help the next generation learn.

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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forgot we had this thread lol posted this in the November thread too but here is the new GFS...talk about a trof. sfc low just camps over lake michigan/western MI for 24hrs.

Yep, I just checked out the new GFS...coming into agreement with Euro with similar large trough closing off but she's too far west with both 500/SFC for my liking

for SE Michigan to get much snow (too warm) but it's way too early but there is now something to watch. It will be interesting to see if the Euro backs it up too.

The '74 storm had a tighter closed 500MB circulation over Kentucky, was aided by a Atlantic moisture feed later along with other differences compared to the models

as of now. (I added the link from the article I wrote back in 2000).

Bill

Welcome to Winter of 20011-12...the fun has just begun!

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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Yep, I just checked out the new GFS...coming into agreement with Euro with similar large trough closing off but she's too far west with both 500/SFC for my liking

for SE Michigan to get much snow (too warm) but it's way too early but there is now something to watch. It will be interesting to see if the Euro backs it up too.

The '74 storm had a tighter closed 500MB circulation over Kentucky, was aided by a Atlantic moisture feed later along with other differences compared to the models

as of now. (I added the link from the article I wrote back in 2000).

Bill

Welcome to Winter of 20011-12...the fun has just begun!

Hey Bill, awesome to see you find the board I think i started posting the same year I volunteered at the office thumbsupsmileyanim.gif. I love the depth of the trough but I think that this threat is more of a dual phase low and I think that the lead SW acts to limit the amount of WAA for the trailing SW to have any sort of significant event. Tons of potential, weaken that lead SW and introduce a stronger baroclinic zone and this is the sort of trough that gave you those biggies like you saw in the 70"s.

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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Hey Bill, awesome to see you find the board I think i started posting the same year I volunteered at the office thumbsupsmileyanim.gif. I love the depth of the trough but I think that this threat is more of a dual phase low and I think that the lead SW acts to limit the amount of WAA for the trailing SW to have any sort of significant event. Tons of potential, weaken that lead SW and introduce a stronger baroclinic zone and this is the sort of trough that gave you those biggies like you saw in the 70"s.

Yeah, I see the new Euro takes her a bit further west up the pike like GFS. However, she does close the 500MB later over Ohio Valley with another Arctic blast

on its heels Tue-Wed 29-30. this will be an unfolding story daily.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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7+ days out. So I wouldn't take it personal.

Very likely that someone somewhere is gonna get sacked.

Not if the polar jet gets displaced up in the Canadian prairies, which is what the GFS/GEM are showing. I'm not really expecting much from this storm directly. My biggest hope is that it can phase/bomb out like the old EURO, become the PV, setup shop over Hudson Bay, and flatten heights across the eastern half of the continent ushering in a significant pattern change for the beginning of December. I won't hold my breath though.

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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I'd add exhausting and frustrating as well. BTW...always nice to have another met around to slap some sense into us weenies. Welcome.

Right back at ya, nice having a Canuck for international flavor. I don't recognize the town, I've been between SE Mich and Toronto many times.

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