Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

SpartyOn · November 28, 2011

I'd imagine DTX and GRR may issue flood watches and possible WSW's(mainly GRR) soon.

Colder in Tupelo,MS than it is here..

Insane amount of water.

Hoosier · November 28, 2011

There's one hour at VPZ with <0 C temps all the way down to *slightly above* 950 mb, and a 2m temp of 36.6. And 0.41" during that 3-hour interval.

It's going to be close. I feel like I'm going to be staring out the window for several hours tomorrow afternoon/night, watching and waiting.

I'm pretty confident you'll see snow but there's the ripping onshore flow off of a warm lake to deal with. It sort of reminds me of November 24, 2004 (not the meteorological setup)...there could be flakes almost to the shore but it's probably going to have a tougher time accumulating the closer you get to shore. Is VPZ far enough inland to help offset these effects, that is the question.

cyclone77 · November 28, 2011

Latest SREF 12hr mean shows some accumulating snow as far west as Chi-town. Also some decent amounts in lower Michigan by Wednesday morning. Good luck guys! :snowman:

SpartyOn · November 28, 2011

Detroit metro is so close to seeing a decent snowfall. This almost reminds me of last years Dec 12th-13th storm.

Chicago WX · November 28, 2011

12z NAM text output for LAF. The -TSRA then SN part (hours 33 and 36) is interesting...

  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 11/28 12Z   35     32      25      10    0.00  0.00    545    560   -1.1 -13.9 1019  92       016BKN030    0.0   15.1
  3 11/28 15Z   37     33      20      14    0.00  0.00    547    563    0.2 -14.6 1019 100       014OVC040    0.0   15.0
  6 11/28 18Z   41     34      29      14    0.00  0.00    550    564    2.9 -14.2 1016 100       025OVC076    0.0   15.1
  9 11/28 21Z   43     36      26      16    0.00  0.00    552    563    5.3 -14.0 1013 100       030OVC208    0.0   13.4
 12 11/29 00Z   40     37      27      17    0.04  0.00    553    564    8.0 -13.5 1013 100       020OVC246    0.0   13.5
 15 11/29 03Z   40     38      27      15    0.09  0.00    554    564    9.0 -13.6 1012 100 RA    014OVC337    0.0    4.0
 18 11/29 06Z   39     38      16      19    0.23  0.00    554    562    8.9 -14.0 1009 100 RA    013OVC351    0.0    2.9
 21 11/29 09Z   39     38      19      19    0.64  0.00    555    560    8.4 -13.4 1006 100 RA    013OVC311    0.0    3.2
 24 11/29 12Z   39     38      27      15    0.40  0.00    551    558    4.4 -16.2 1008 100 RA    013OVC182    0.0    5.2
 27 11/29 15Z   39     37      20      15    0.12  0.00    548    555    2.8 -17.1 1008 100 -RA   013OVC122    0.0   15.8
 30 11/29 18Z   38     36       3      13    0.12  0.01    545    552   -1.8 -18.2 1008 100 RA    010OVC223    0.0    4.3
 33 11/29 21Z   37     35     352      15    0.18  0.04    543    549   -3.4 -19.8 1006 100 -TSRA 011OVC220    0.0    4.6
 36 11/30 00Z   33     32     341      15    0.26  0.00    541    547   -3.7 -20.5 1007 100 SN    007OVC284    2.7    0.7
 39 11/30 03Z   34     32     342      18    0.19  0.00    540    547   -3.9 -19.8 1009 100 -RA   008OVC277    0.7    3.4
 42 11/30 06Z   34     33     340      17    0.08  0.00    540    547   -4.1 -20.4 1009 100 -RA   010OVC251    0.5   12.1
 45 11/30 09Z   33     32     314      14    0.02  0.00    539    548   -4.0 -20.1 1010 100 -SN   010OVC266    0.2    7.4

michsnowfreak · November 28, 2011

Detroit metro is so close to seeing a decent snowfall. This almost reminds me of last years Dec 12th-13th storm.

Last year we did see a decent snowfall on Dec 12th tho, this time around doesnt look like it. But we will see.

cyclone77 · November 28, 2011

Pretty cool loop of the 12z NAM simulated precip.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_12z/jloop.html

Hoosier · November 28, 2011

12z NAM text output for LAF. The -TSRA then SN part (hours 33 and 36) is interesting...

  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 11/28 12Z   35     32      25      10    0.00  0.00    545    560   -1.1 -13.9 1019  92       016BKN030    0.0   15.1
  3 11/28 15Z   37     33      20      14    0.00  0.00    547    563    0.2 -14.6 1019 100       014OVC040    0.0   15.0
  6 11/28 18Z   41     34      29      14    0.00  0.00    550    564    2.9 -14.2 1016 100       025OVC076    0.0   15.1
  9 11/28 21Z   43     36      26      16    0.00  0.00    552    563    5.3 -14.0 1013 100       030OVC208    0.0   13.4
 12 11/29 00Z   40     37      27      17    0.04  0.00    553    564    8.0 -13.5 1013 100       020OVC246    0.0   13.5
 15 11/29 03Z   40     38      27      15    0.09  0.00    554    564    9.0 -13.6 1012 100 RA    014OVC337    0.0    4.0
 18 11/29 06Z   39     38      16      19    0.23  0.00    554    562    8.9 -14.0 1009 100 RA    013OVC351    0.0    2.9
 21 11/29 09Z   39     38      19      19    0.64  0.00    555    560    8.4 -13.4 1006 100 RA    013OVC311    0.0    3.2
 24 11/29 12Z   39     38      27      15    0.40  0.00    551    558    4.4 -16.2 1008 100 RA    013OVC182    0.0    5.2
 27 11/29 15Z   39     37      20      15    0.12  0.00    548    555    2.8 -17.1 1008 100 -RA   013OVC122    0.0   15.8
 30 11/29 18Z   38     36       3      13    0.12  0.01    545    552   -1.8 -18.2 1008 100 RA    010OVC223    0.0    4.3
 33 11/29 21Z   37     35     352      15    0.18  0.04    543    549   -3.4 -19.8 1006 100 -TSRA 011OVC220    0.0    4.6
 36 11/30 00Z   33     32     341      15    0.26  0.00    541    547   -3.7 -20.5 1007 100 SN    007OVC284    2.7    0.7
 39 11/30 03Z   34     32     342      18    0.19  0.00    540    547   -3.9 -19.8 1009 100 -RA   008OVC277    0.7    3.4
 42 11/30 06Z   34     33     340      17    0.08  0.00    540    547   -4.1 -20.4 1009 100 -RA   010OVC251    0.5   12.1
 45 11/30 09Z   33     32     314      14    0.02  0.00    539    548   -4.0 -20.1 1010 100 -SN   010OVC266    0.2    7.4

Yeah I wouldn't be shocked if someone gets thundersnow given the intense lift and some instability aloft.

Chicago WX · November 28, 2011

Yeah I wouldn't be shocked if someone gets thundersnow given the intense lift and some instability aloft.

Something to watch for no doubt.

12z 4.0km WRF-NMM simulated radar is pretty cool. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/

Hoosier · November 28, 2011

Something to watch for no doubt.

12z 4.0km WRF-NMM simulated radar is pretty cool. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/

I think 21z Tue is the key time for us. Before that should be mostly rain barring a very heavy burst of precip to mix in some flakes but I think it trends toward mostly snow after that, possibly mixed with a little rain if precip lightens.

PatrickSumner · November 28, 2011

Something to watch for no doubt.

12z 4.0km WRF-NMM simulated radar is pretty cool. http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/12/

Hmmm... deformation band looks to set up west of me with that particular model run. Me not likey! I am from Southern Indiana, but currently in Marion for college. Yep...Indiana Wesleyan University is where I go! Campus would be even more beautiful with snow covering the ground!

Chicago WX · November 28, 2011

I think 21z Tue is the key time for us. Before that should be mostly rain barring a very heavy burst of precip to mix in some flakes but I think it trends toward mostly snow after that, possibly mixed with a little rain if precip lightens.

Any updated thoughts, or still sticking with possibly 1-2"?

Jim Martin · November 28, 2011

12z GFS still showing potential for a good snowfall back in Indiana and Michigan...

...as does the 12z NAM.

Hoosier · November 28, 2011

Any updated thoughts, or still sticking with possibly 1-2"?

Not enough to change at this point though I could see a need to bump slightly if things continue down this path. I like this raw NAM output better than what it was showing previously. Temps should trend into the 32-34 range as we load the near sfc layer with flakes and lose any warming influences.

WestMichigan · November 28, 2011

For the last day or more the GFS has had GRR in its crosshairs, now it has slid east and Lansing it the winner. The NAM is on board with that right now. I guess we will have to see.

Chicago WX · November 28, 2011

Not enough to change at this point though I could see a need to bump slightly if things continue down this path. I like this raw NAM output better than what it was showing previously. Temps should trend into the 32-34 range as we load the near sfc layer with flakes and lose any warming influences.

Cool. I agree with your thoughts. Should be a fun one.

Hoosier · November 28, 2011

Cool. I agree with your thoughts. Should be a fun one.

12z Euro continues to suggest a potential earlier changeover.

Stevo6899 · November 28, 2011

12z Euro continues to suggest a potential earlier changeover.

Euro is the furthest east with the LP correct?

kab2791 · November 28, 2011

lol, I'l take the 12Z HIRESW NMM/ARW

cyclone77 · November 28, 2011

Juicy. 12z HRW-NMM

dmc76 · November 28, 2011

Flood watch issued for SEMI

Thundersnow12 · November 28, 2011

Juicy. 12z HRW-NMM

one of the sickest western gradients I've seen.

cyclone77 · November 28, 2011

one of the sickest western gradients I've seen.

Yeah very impressive. Kind of reminds me of the extreme western cutoff of 12/1/06, but not as cold.

Hoosier · November 28, 2011

Juicy. 12z HRW-NMM

That seems to be a little more generous with the western extent of the precip compared to others.

Thundersnow12 · November 28, 2011

Yeah very impressive. Kind of reminds me of the extreme western cutoff of 12/1/06, but not as cold.

going from 3" of precip to almost nothing in 40 miles or so.

kab2791 · November 28, 2011

12Z Euro (colder and dryer for some locales) Congrats FWA/DTW/PTK

LAF

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   1.6    -1.8    1011      97     100    0.40     552     543    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   2.0    -5.2    1013      86      77    0.40     548     538    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.9    -3.6    1015      72       3    0.02     548     536

FWA

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   3.2    -0.8    1008      94     100    0.38     551     545    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.9    -4.8    1008      96      98    0.70     545     538    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.8    -4.0    1011      84      79    0.62     544     536    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -0.9    -0.1    1014      79      11    0.03     547     536

LAN

WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.7    -5.2    1009      92     100    0.29     548     541    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -1.0    -4.4    1009      76      74    0.39     543     536    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -3.1    -1.4    1012      69      13    0.04     545     535

BTL

WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.8    -5.7    1010      91      97    0.29     548     540    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.9    -4.1    1010      73      32    0.25     544     536

MOP

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   2.0    -0.7    1014      84      79    0.08     556     545    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.8    -4.5    1011      75      68    0.09     550     541    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.9    -2.2    1010      60      19    0.04     545     537

DTW

WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.6    -1.6    1004      97      98    0.53     546     542    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.8    -5.9    1004      91      92    0.30     540     537    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -1.6    -2.8    1009      74      83    0.26     543     536

PTK

WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.1    -1.6    1005      96     100    0.42     547     543    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.0    -6.4    1004      91     100    0.53     541     538    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -2.4    -2.3    1009      70      68    0.33     543     536

cyclone77 · November 28, 2011

going from 3" of precip to almost nothing in 40 miles or so.

There's going to be some sick banded precip all along that stalled deform zone tomorrow afternoon/evening. Makes you think there could be some isolated bands of heavy snow accumulations where they stall out. May cause for some wide variations in accumulations across a given county. Gonna be interesting. :popcorn:

Stevo6899 · November 28, 2011

12Z Euro (colder and dryer for some locales) Congrats FWA/DTW/PTK

L

Wow close call for pontiac. Pretty big cutoff from there to lansing. What a way to start off the winter. Nailbiter.

dmc76 · November 28, 2011

12Z Euro (colder and dryer for some locales) Congrats FWA/DTW/PTK

LAF

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   1.6    -1.8    1011      97 	100    0.40 	552 	543    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   2.0    -5.2    1013      86      77    0.40 	548 	538    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.9    -3.6    1015      72   	3    0.02 	548 	536

FWA

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   3.2    -0.8    1008      94 	100    0.38 	551 	545    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.9    -4.8    1008      96      98    0.70 	545 	538    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.8    -4.0    1011      84      79    0.62 	544 	536    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -0.9    -0.1    1014      79      11    0.03 	547 	536

LAN

WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.7    -5.2    1009      92 	100    0.29 	548 	541    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -1.0    -4.4    1009      76      74    0.39 	543 	536    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -3.1    -1.4    1012      69      13    0.04 	545 	535

BTL

WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.8    -5.7    1010      91      97    0.29 	548 	540    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.9    -4.1    1010      73      32    0.25 	544 	536

MOP

TUE 18Z 29-NOV   2.0    -0.7    1014      84      79    0.08 	556 	545    
WED 00Z 30-NOV   0.8    -4.5    1011      75      68    0.09 	550 	541    
WED 06Z 30-NOV  -0.9    -2.2    1010      60      19    0.04 	545 	537

DTW

WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.6    -1.6    1004      97      98    0.53 	546 	542    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.8    -5.9    1004      91      92    0.30 	540 	537    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -1.6    -2.8    1009      74      83    0.26 	543 	536

PTK

WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.1    -1.6    1005      96 	100    0.42 	547 	543    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.0    -6.4    1004      91 	100    0.53 	541 	538    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -2.4    -2.3    1009      70      68    0.33 	543 	536

thanks for this info... great news

SpartyOn · November 28, 2011

Lol

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Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

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