PatrickSumner Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Euro looks like a decent run for LAF...maybe better than 12z. How about Marion??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 After looking at the 00z runs and taking a glance at the Euro I am warming up to the possibility of around 1-2" on grassy/colder surfaces. Subject to change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 0z NMM is farther west with the deform band at hr 48, Chicago getting in on the action. Unfortunately, that action is rain, as 1000-500mb thickness values are higher on the NMM. For example, the 540 line runs along the IL/IN border at 48 on the 0z GFS, whereas it runs from Green Bay to DVN on the 0z NMM. ARW is also slightly farther west with the precip shield compared to the GFS (though not as far west at the NMM) and also similar to the NMM in thickness values. 540 line runs Green Bay down to whatever is east of DVN (sorry I don't know all the cities around here yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 How about Marion??? I don't have access to text output but I'm assuming Marion does pretty well (better than LAF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I don't have access to text output but I'm assuming Marion does pretty well (better than LAF) About .8" likely frozen, another couple tenths borderline. LAF just scrapes the deform band, stays east. real winners are FWA to Ann Arbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Euro is quick to change over. 850 mb 0C isotherm is already into the Indiana US 30 corridor at 18z Tue. Edit: That is 150 miles away from the NAM/GFS at same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I would have to guess that Euro could be good for most of eastern IN/Western OH and up into SEMI if its more east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 0z NMM is farther west with the deform band at hr 48, Chicago getting in on the action. Unfortunately, that action is rain, as 1000-500mb thickness values are higher on the NMM. For example, the 540 line runs along the IL/IN border at 48 on the 0z GFS, whereas it runs from Green Bay to DVN on the 0z NMM. ARW is also slightly farther west with the precip shield compared to the GFS (though not as far west at the NMM) and also similar to the NMM in thickness values. 540 line runs Green Bay down to whatever is east of DVN (sorry I don't know all the cities around here yet). Can you post the link to that (can't find it on NCEP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I would have to guess that Euro could be good for most of eastern IN/Western OH and up into SEMI if its more east? Mainly northern parts of Ohio since the deform stays up there. The question now is if that run was a blip or will the NCEP models follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Mainly northern parts of Ohio since the deform stays up there. The question now is if that run was a blip or will the NCEP models follow? I'm honestly floored to see this eastern trend by a storm in late November. Only 30 miles more and we've got metro Toledo and the main swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Can you post the link to that (can't find it on NCEP) It is there. They broke the Hi Res models into sub categories with EUS and WUS. My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 6z NAM looks slightly east from the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 6z NAM looks slightly east from the 0z NAM. HPC is moving things SOUTH again I'll let someone else post the maps. To tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'm one who hates complaining about the weather. I mean, it's this kind of climate that makes us a rich resource in foodstuffs (which is highly beneficial for the rest of the nation, and perhaps even the world as we move into a food crisis). However, I'm NOT looking forward to the onslaught of rain the next few days. It just makes the walk to/from classes quite unpleasant. Perhaps I should retire my hatred of umbrellas and actually use one for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Appears IWX is going back to hitting the snow hard, with about 2-5" forecasted in heaviest band (possibly more?). LOT mentioning some accumulating snow, especially for its Indiana counties--doesn't drop any amounts. IND going for around 2" in the north, 1" around Indy. All of this information extracted from the AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 What a forecast nightmare. At SBN NAM changes over to snow around 3z while the GFS changes over around 21/22z. So...trace to 1 inch or 6 plus inches of snow. It will all come down to how deep this system ends up being. Just glanced at the latest HPC wwd graphics and wow...they like the cold/snowier solution. Yes, I feel for you guys and gals up there. Northern Indiana is in a delicate position. There is a high bust potential. Exact low placement and strength, amount of dynamic cooling/surface temps, and warm, wet soil will play into tomorrow's forecast. The first call for the CWA was 1-4", then last night it changed from less than 1/2" to 1". Now it looks like they are following HPC's lead and going with the colder solution, but the NAM is a worry. In the meantime, bring on the heavy rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 FWIW and.... funky looking map from TWC, don't see this TOO often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 HPC shifted a tad southeast as mentioned previously... While snowfall shifted way east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 uggg 2nd wasted track for SEMI in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 uggg 2nd wasted track for SEMI in a week. Except that it is going to snow this time with some accumulations especially areas like yours, Northwest of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 uggg 2nd wasted track for SEMI in a week. Have you followed this storm at all? Except that it is going to snow this time with some accumulations especially areas like yours, Northwest of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Except that it is going to snow this time with some accumulations especially areas like yours, Northwest of the city 1-3 inches far NW and western suburbs at best. Around Detroit....SQUAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1-3 inches far NW and western suburbs at best. Around Detroit....SQUAT! Look at the models some more and the trends within them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1-3 inches far NW and western suburbs at best. Around Detroit....SQUAT! Uh, are you following the trends at all? Things are improving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Uh, are you following the trends at all? Things are improving... I hope Im wrong but Ive seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Thread is hard to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 After looking at the 00z runs and taking a glance at the Euro I am warming up to the possibility of around 1-2" on grassy/colder surfaces. Subject to change of course. Bullish. I'll take the easy route and wait for the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I hope Im wrong but Ive seen this movie before. The overall trend would disagree with you. A tad more cold air and further E solution would be good for the area. This was never supposed to be a monster storm. 1-3 of accumulation in November is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I hope Im wrong but Ive seen this movie before. Not NEARLY as many times as Ive seen THIS movie before! ("this movie" being the unneccessary pessimism before a storm that lays down yet more snow on the area. That said I dont feel good about getting much if any snow from THIS storm in the immediate metro-Detroit area, but Im sure with the unreliable models and very reliable pessimism on this board, we can expect this every event! this is not meant as a stab at you, just instead of hearing this every storm, lets try something new this winter, and just keep our fingers crossed...better than getting an ulcer over models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 12z NAM is coming in east, a tad colder than the 12z. Precip shield pretty much looks the same though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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