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Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend


wxhstn74

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0z NMM is farther west with the deform band at hr 48, Chicago getting in on the action. Unfortunately, that action is rain, as 1000-500mb thickness values are higher on the NMM. For example, the 540 line runs along the IL/IN border at 48 on the 0z GFS, whereas it runs from Green Bay to DVN on the 0z NMM. yikes.png

ARW is also slightly farther west with the precip shield compared to the GFS (though not as far west at the NMM) and also similar to the NMM in thickness values. 540 line runs Green Bay down to whatever is east of DVN (sorry I don't know all the cities around here yet).

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0z NMM is farther west with the deform band at hr 48, Chicago getting in on the action. Unfortunately, that action is rain, as 1000-500mb thickness values are higher on the NMM. For example, the 540 line runs along the IL/IN border at 48 on the 0z GFS, whereas it runs from Green Bay to DVN on the 0z NMM. yikes.png

ARW is also slightly farther west with the precip shield compared to the GFS (though not as far west at the NMM) and also similar to the NMM in thickness values. 540 line runs Green Bay down to whatever is east of DVN (sorry I don't know all the cities around here yet).

Can you post the link to that (can't find it on NCEP)

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I'm one who hates complaining about the weather. I mean, it's this kind of climate that makes us a rich resource in foodstuffs (which is highly beneficial for the rest of the nation, and perhaps even the world as we move into a food crisis). However, I'm NOT looking forward to the onslaught of rain the next few days. It just makes the walk to/from classes quite unpleasant.

Perhaps I should retire my hatred of umbrellas and actually use one for once. raining.gif

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Appears IWX is going back to hitting the snow hard, with about 2-5" forecasted in heaviest band (possibly more?). LOT mentioning some accumulating snow, especially for its Indiana counties--doesn't drop any amounts. IND going for around 2" in the north, 1" around Indy.

All of this information extracted from the AFDs.

Snowman.gif

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What a forecast nightmare. At SBN NAM changes over to snow around 3z while the GFS changes over around 21/22z. So...trace to 1 inch or 6 plus inches of snow. It will all come down to how deep this system ends up being.

Just glanced at the latest HPC wwd graphics and wow...they like the cold/snowier solution.

Yes, I feel for you guys and gals up there. Northern Indiana is in a delicate position. There is a high bust potential. Exact low placement and strength, amount of dynamic cooling/surface temps, and warm, wet soil will play into tomorrow's forecast.

The first call for the CWA was 1-4", then last night it changed from less than 1/2" to 1". Now it looks like they are following HPC's lead and going with the colder solution, but the NAM is a worry.

In the meantime, bring on the heavy rain!

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I hope Im wrong but Ive seen this movie before.

Not NEARLY as many times as Ive seen THIS movie before! ;)

("this movie" being the unneccessary pessimism before a storm that lays down yet more snow on the area. That said I dont feel good about getting much if any snow from THIS storm in the immediate metro-Detroit area, but Im sure with the unreliable models and very reliable pessimism on this board, we can expect this every event! this is not meant as a stab at you, just instead of hearing this every storm, lets try something new this winter, and just keep our fingers crossed...better than getting an ulcer over models).

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