Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[Geos]

Anyone else feel like it is taking forever for this storm to get here? Maybe it's because its the first winter storm. Not expecting much here on the eastside.

Agree! Waiting for the first accumulating snow can't come soon enough! lol The wobbling of the different models doesn't help things either.

[Chicago WX]

Condensed 0z NAM Kuchera clown map. Obligatory congrats to those in the sweet spot. Close miss for LAF.

[Thundersnow12]

MDW gets in on some snow as the BL cools nicely at night

[snowstormcanuck]

Douchey RGEM ptype graphics valid 0z Wed. You can see the effect of the dynamic cooling with rain on the periphery where the precip rates are lighter.

[Chicago WX]

Douchey RGEM ptype graphics valid 0z Wed. You can see the effect of the dynamic cooling with rain on the periphery where the precip rates are lighter.

I think I'm right under a snowflake on that map. Hoosier may be pluie farther west though.

[snowstormcanuck]

I think I'm right under a snowflake on that map. Hoosier may be pluie farther west though.

Road trip

[Chicago WX]

The majority of times if you showed me this map, sans the thickness lines or good close by high pressure in top right image, I'd faint.

[Chicago WX]

Road trip

May have to drive east over to Kokomo to visit Jim.

[snowstormcanuck]

The majority of times if you showed me this map, sans the thickness lines or good close by high pressure in top right image, I'd faint.

Yeah, it's tough not to think of the possibilities if this storm had more cold air to work with. Sort of reminds me of a less deep Dec 2007.

[Chicago WX]

Yeah, it's tough not to think of the possibilities if this storm had more cold air to work with. Sort of reminds me of a less deep Dec 2007.

That's a good comparison really.

The lack of a true cold air connection with this system sucks. Ah well.

[kab2791]

http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/nam_00_cref.html

Nice look at p-type changeover for 00Z NAM

[Stevo6899]

That's a good comparison really.

The lack of a true cold air connection with this system sucks. Ah well.

Really is a bummer. This will be the 2nd storm in the past 10 days that had a solid deformation band hit here.

[Chicago WX]

Really is a bummer. This will be the 2nd storm in the past 10 days that had a solid deformation band hit here.

Same here. Well if nothing else, hopefully these types of systems are a preview to the upcoming winter...except it's cold enough then.

[KokomoWX]

May have to drive east over to Kokomo to visit Jim.

I'm sure a dry slot or warm tongue of air will mess up my totals.

[Chicago WX]

I'm sure a dry slot or warm tongue of air will mess up my totals.

With respect to the bolded (and a play on Buckeye's WTOD)...you live in Indiana, not Ohio. Don't be silly.

[Chicago WX]

What the hell is going on here at 57 hours with the 0C surface isotherm (blue line) over Lake Michigan and the surrounding area on the 0z GFS? Quite the loop-de-loop.

[Thunder Road]

What the hell is going on here at 57 hours with the 0C surface isotherm (blue line) over Lake Michigan and the surrounding area on the 0z GFS? Quite the loop-de-loop.

I guess it's just showing the lake (and a small area of onshore flow) being above freezing. But yeah that definitely is strange.

[Chicago WX]

I guess it's just showing the lake (and a small area of onshore flow) being above freezing. But yeah that definitely is strange.

Oh I think it's trying to show the Lake influence, but I had to trace it with my cursor a few times to figure out who it's trying to say is 32º or lower. Just kinda funky/funny looking.

[Thunder Road]

Oh I think it's trying to show the Lake influence, but I had to trace it with my cursor a few times to figure out who it's trying to say is 32º or lower. Just kinda funky.

Yeah when that happens, do you say that the isotherm actually crosses itself (I feel like that probably makes a black hole open up or something) or just that there's a cusp in it? I mean is it even possible for an isotherm to do a loop-de-loop?

[Geos]

I guess it's just showing the lake (and a small area of onshore flow) being above freezing. But yeah that definitely is strange.

The lake is still in the mid 40s, so yeah that would explain the loop over the lake and areas downwind.

[Chicago WX]

Yeah when that happens, do you say that the isotherm actually crosses itself (I feel like that probably makes a black hole open up or something) or just that there's a cusp in it? I mean is it even possible for an isotherm to do a loop-de-loop?

Heh, no idea. And if you're at the" triple point" of the loop does it just get weird? Silly GFS, just thought it was funny looking.

[Thunder Road]

Interesting how the 18z and now 0z GFS have a weaker, more elongated SLP than the 12z GFS (at 0z Wed anyway).

12z: (SLP of 996 mb centered over CLE)

0z: (SLP of ~1002 mb 1001 mb, marked over PGH but the 1004 isobar covers a lot of ground)

So there's really not so much a trend east on the GFS as there is a trend a tad weaker overall, which also explains the greater westward expansion to the comma head. Notice the convective dots on the 12z, whereas the 0z is a much smoother area of QPF.

[AppsRunner]

GGEM goes a little east Of the NCEP suite. UKMET as consistent as possible

[Thunder Road]

Checking the raw numbers, the 0z GFS might be slightly cooler too.

35 at 2m at VPZ versus 37 on the 18z. Every degree helps over here in fringe-ville. (We actually get 0.56" while 1000-500mb thickness is <540 and the sfc is 35-36. I know, I know, hope springs eternal.)

[AppsRunner]

GGEM goes a little east Of the NCEP suite. UKMET as consistent as possible

A little east was an understatement. SEMI/NWOH weenies rejoice:

Really different then the RGEM, as you can tell by the loop:

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Northern_IN_Wx]

What a forecast nightmare. At SBN NAM changes over to snow around 3z while the GFS changes over around 21/22z. So...trace to 1 inch or 6 plus inches of snow. It will all come down to how deep this system ends up being.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

Just glanced at the latest HPC wwd graphics and wow...they like the cold/snowier solution.

[AppsRunner]

ECMWF coming in further east... low over Northern PA at 48hr.

[Hoosier]

Euro looks like a decent run for LAF...maybe better than 12z.

[AppsRunner]

Euro looks like a decent run for LAF...maybe better than 12z.

Looks like the deform band works out nicely for a large area.