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Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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wxhstn74

wxhstn74

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What I like about our region is that even if ALL else fails, we have the Alberta Clippers to fall back on. If im not mistaken (you would remember better than me), werent the '80s an Alberta Clipper paradise? We had 50-55" for 3 consecutive winters in the mid-80s without any real big snowstorms.

Clippers are usually "in vogue" (terrible I know) but except for the cold air behind 'em, I'm not too big a fan UNLESS they dive into the Midwest/ Lakes/ Ohio Valley. Reminds me of the "Super-Clipper" name we coined at DTX that we've seen this past decade, when up to a foot fell.

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

HPC

...LOWER MICHIGAN...

THE CLOSED LOW SFC/ALOFT MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER

LAKES. A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS APPEARING LIKELY LATE TUES INTO

EARLY WED FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AS

COLDER AIR ARRIVING ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE UPR GREAT LAKES

REGION GETS ENTRAINED SOUTHWARD AND TUCKED IN AROUND THE WEST SIDE

OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS COMBINES WITH ADIABATIC COOLING DUE TO

ASCENT TO SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WITHIN THE DEFORMATION

ZONE OF THE EJECTING UPR LOW.

A MODERATE RISK IS INDICATED DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE

DURATION OF RAIN AND SNOW...AS THE 12Z NAM AND 09Z SREF MEAN SHOW

LOWER AMOUNTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WHILE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR

SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE SNOW BAND AXIS/ORIENTATION

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/06Z NAM TO BE RESOLVED...WITH EACH

OFFSET FROM THE OTHERS BY 25-50 NM.

post-1245-0-02541200-1322427508.gif

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QVectorman

QVectorman

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I have to say the UKMET has been extremely consistant on this storm for the past 3 days. Everytime I refresh the model page I have to double check the dates b/c it has kept an identical path for the 500mb low and it has been tough to tell them apart. Unlike the GFS where you know it's a new run b/c the low has moved several hundred miles from the last run, LOL

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Jim Martin

Jim Martin

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From the NWS in Cleveland (Part of short-term discussion at 334 PM EST today):

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE

MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IF THE LOW SLOWS ITS

NORTHWARD SHIFT IT COULD BE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST ON

MONDAY. TUESDAY IS JUST AS DIFFICULT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR

NORTH THE WARM SECTOR WILL REALLY MAKE IT. AT THIS POINT IT

APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS INTO

THE 50S.

COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL

LOW TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE

TO SNOW. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDER AIR DIVES

INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING

SNOW WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE EAST OF A

KCLE TO KYNG LINE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED ON THIS OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE CERTAIN.

IT WILL BE COLDER BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER

30S TO NEAR 40.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

It is. Not that the clown map should be a great indication, or maybe it should, but it's got a good hit for NE IN up through MI. 12z had essentially nothing. Flips and flops.

We're cold enough aloft at 00z Wed (maybe a little before) but that darn low level warmth is slow to go.

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nwohweather

nwohweather

Posted
Posted

From the NWS in Cleveland (Part of short-term discussion at 334 PM EST today):

HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALL HINGE ON THE

MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IF THE LOW SLOWS ITS

NORTHWARD SHIFT IT COULD BE COLDER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST ON

MONDAY. TUESDAY IS JUST AS DIFFICULT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR

NORTH THE WARM SECTOR WILL REALLY MAKE IT. AT THIS POINT IT

APPEARS THAT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL SEE HIGHS INTO

THE 50S.

COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL

LOW TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE

TO SNOW. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR AS THE COLDER AIR DIVES

INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING

SNOW WILL BE TOWARD SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE EAST OF A

KCLE TO KYNG LINE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED ON THIS OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE CERTAIN.

IT WILL BE COLDER BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER

30S TO NEAR 40.

What a joke. I talk this in depth on my weather blog to the general public, you'd expect a usually more advanced thing like an AFD to have more in depth answers than this

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Dynamic cooling will play a role in this event...the question is exactly how strong will it be.

Considering the QPF amounts and corresponding potential precipitation rates, also how cold it would be aloft, I am very skeptical of this low level warmth of that magnitude that the NAM is showing.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Considering the QPF amounts and corresponding potential precipitation rates, also how cold it would be aloft, I am very skeptical of this low level warmth of that magnitude that the NAM is showing.

18z run did go colder. We are still 48+ hours away from the snow flying which is long in a sensitive setup like this, but ultimately this event may be tailor made for nowcasting.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

GRR/IWX are skeptical, especially in light of the 12Z NAM and difficulty of accumulations given prior heavy rainfall.

Yep, IWX has really backed off of accumulations. Now under 1/2 inch except near the IN/OH/MI border. The new concern is flooding, with 1-3" totals between now and Tuesday evening. Not only small stream and urban flooding due to expected heavy rain Tuesday, but also river flooding, especially the Maumee and Wabash river basins.

Nothing like a good heavy rain and upper 30's.

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