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Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

wxhstn74

By wxhstn74,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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KeenerWx

KeenerWx

Posted
Posted

IWX seems excited about the potential via their AFD/SWS. IND mentions some possibility. LOT not biting (rightfully so as best chances look to be to the east/northeast at this time). Would post snipets from these offices but im on the phone browser...

Good to see that we have something relatively exciting to watch. I believe it was around this same time frame last year that LAF was looking at its first modest dumping of snow (believe it was the first friday/Saturday of december). At any rate im not sure how well this will turn out for LAF but hopefully some of our Indiana/Michigan counterparts can enjoy something out of this system :)

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Wow. I woke up this morning and IWX has already added amounts for Tuesday night. I'm surprised since there is some uncertainty. I thought that they would wait until at least the 12z runs come out today. GRR and DTX aren't yet being quite so bullish. Here is an approximate total map (sorry that it's crappy, I just quickly threw it together).

EDIT: They are still concerned about warm air at the surface affecting amounts:

CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW WRT TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE DEFO BAND AS STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES SEEN IN ENSEMBLES/DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND UNCERTAINTY WRT TO TEMPS IN THE LOWEST 50-75 MB. IT IS STILL WORTH MENTIONING THAT A MODEL CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN AS BEING IN THE THE BEST LOCATION FOR SNOW AND THE POSSIBLY FOR ADVISORY AMOUNTS (ISO WARNING AMOUNTS).

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

Cautiously Excited about this

HPC going bullish

MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ASSOCD WITH THE SAME SYS IS APPEARING

LIKELY LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS

PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN IND...WRN OH...AND ESP UP ACROSS LOWER MI AS

COLDER AIR ARRIVING ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE UPR GRT LAKES REGION

GETS ENTRAINED SOUTHWARD AND TUCKED IN AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE

LOW CENTER. THERMAL PROFILES INITIALLY SUPPORT ALL RAIN ACROSS

THIS AREA...BUT LOW LVL COLD AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC

COOLING ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO HVY SNOW WITHIN THE

DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE EJECTING UPR LOW. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE

QUITE INTENSE...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 2 INCH/HR...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF

COOLING COINCIDING WITH THE PRESENCE OF VERY STG DEEP LAYER

ASCENT/FORCING AND LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS AREA.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT A SWATH OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW MAY

FALL FROM NRN IND INTO SERN MI...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMTS

POSSIBLE.

post-1245-0-91860100-1322400153.gif

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Bullish indeed for down here, my first 10% probability of 4" for the season. :wub: Actually, the 40% is awfully close. :unsure:

Back to reality, 12z NAM is 100% chilly rain here, as what is expected.

In the end we still beat you by 20 inches, but I remember last year you guys were way ahead of us in snowfall through December. Looks like Ma Nature wants to start things the same way in 2011-12. Its funny how latitude seems to come into play so much more the 2nd half of the winter. Oohh, the anxiety of getting that first blanket of snow :yikes:'

And :lol: the NAM, what a JOKE. Shows no snow for anyone. Onto the GFS...

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

In the end we still beat you by 20 inches, but I remember last year you guys were way ahead of us in snowfall through December. Looks like Ma Nature wants to start things the same way in 2011-12. Its funny how latitude seems to come into play so much more the 2nd half of the winter. Oohh, the anxiety of getting that first blanket of snow :yikes:'

And :lol: the NAM, what a JOKE. Shows no snow for anyone. Onto the GFS...

Blocking FTW for LAF last December. Unfortunately for us, but good for you and those up north, blocking is non-existant right now...and looks to continue. Outside of a fluke, we won't be leading anyone in the early part of winter this year. But you never know. :lol:

12z GFS looks like a "colder" rain for here than the NAM. But it does seem better for MI/ N IN snow prospects.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Blocking FTW for LAF last December. Unfortunately for us, but good for you and those up north, blocking is non-existant right now...and looks to continue. Outside of a fluke, we won't be leading anyone in the early part of winter this year. But you never know. :lol:

Even as far N & E as I am, I could do well with a bit of weak blocking. Just no more 2009-10 or Dec 2010 plz.

Back OT...GFS looks great for parts of MI.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Even as far N & E as I am, I could do well with a bit of weak blocking. Just no more 2009-10 or Dec 2010 plz.

Back OT...GFS looks great for parts of MI.

I'm in the minority, but I'd love a December 2010 repeat. :P

12z RGEM p-type plots through 48 hours show the same as others, lots of liquid for most other than the fringes down south. Of course what happens after that is TBD.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

While I appreciate the opportunity to track a winter storm, this would be a rough way to start the winter.

As painful as it would be, thats the way we started the 2004-05 winter. Thankgiving snowstorm dropped 6-8" to our west and 0.1" at DTW. The winter that ensued, however, was one of 60-100" of snow in SE MI :)

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

I always hope it snows in MBY, but with my snowmobile trailer... doesnt matter where it falls. If it falls west its all good to me... Better trails on the west side of the state.

If Island Lake Rec gets 6+ I can ride there.... If not, just get it within 200 miles of me.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Wow, HPC is pretty bullish. Stating the obvious but very small changes could mean very different results with this storm. I will be curious to see what impact the lake has around NE IL and especially northwest IN where heavy precip looks more likely to occur. Lake temps are in the upper 40's and there will be onshore flow which doesn't help in a borderline setup.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Wow, HPC is pretty bullish. Stating the obvious but very small changes could mean very different results with this storm. I will be curious to see what impact the lake has around NE IL and especially northwest IN where heavy precip looks more likely to occur. Lake temps are in the upper 40's and there will be onshore flow which doesn't help in a borderline setup.

Much too bullish for us. I'd give us a 10% chance of seeing a snowflake at this point. ;)

Still think N IN/S 1/2 MI are in the game. Hopefully it delivers for them. :)

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