Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[Thundersnow12]

Lol, you.

Also it's you're*.

Lets get back to weather now, eh?

dude stfu or get lost, this isn't english class or the kindergarden accuweather forums. Don't come on here and troll people the second you join.

[kab2791]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

GGEM shows a changeover to snow on the NW periphery gradually expanding eastward.

[AppsRunner]

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

GGEM shows a changeover to snow on the NW periphery gradually expanding eastward.

I would absolutely take that and run like the wind. Anything over an inch would be fantastic, seeing some moderate snow for an hour is a bonus. My expectations here are low, so I pretty much have nothing to lose.

[Stevo6899]

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

GGEM shows a changeover to snow on the NW periphery gradually expanding eastward.

Thanks. From what I remember the GGEM does have a warm bias but ill take 2-3 hours of heavy wet snow before december. Turns into a monster once it gets into canada.

[Thundersnow12]

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

GGEM shows a changeover to snow on the NW periphery gradually expanding eastward.

going sub 990mb after crossing Lake Erie..

[Chargers09]

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

GGEM shows a changeover to snow on the NW periphery gradually expanding eastward.

Id take this and run, without a doubt.

[Chicago WX]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

GGEM shows a changeover to snow on the NW periphery gradually expanding eastward.

Nice. Shows about a 8 to 9 hour period of snow here. Won't add up to much, but I'll take it.

[AppsRunner]

What's interesting is that any change in timing of the phase- any minor details the models might have missed/picked up could result in a total rainstorm or a decent event. This is my favorite part of weather forecasting, just enjoying what the weather gives you.

[kab2791]

going sub 990mb after crossing Lake Erie..

All the way down to 974 hPa, in SE Canada, probably way too amped.

[kab2791]

GFS clown map showing 4-6" area of snowfall north of 96, west of 23, away from lake shore, with a bullesye area near Alpena

[cyclone77]

There's been so many changes over the last several days on most of the guidance that I wouldn't buy anything until it gets into the 12hr RUC range. Incredibly complex interaction of jet energy over poorly sampled regions is making the final evolution of this whole thing very hard to pin down. Most of the models seem to be settling towards the idea of laying down some decent deformation zone snows from northern Indiana into Michigan by Wednesday. That's over 48hrs away. 48hrs ago many of these same models advertised widespread 1-2" snowfall over a large part of the western/central MW. So take that into consideration lol.

[Stebo]

I'd be careful to buy into any guidance right now. The trend this fall has been for the Northern stream to be faster than initially forecasted, if this ends up being the case the cold air could very possibly arrive sooner and the 2 streams could phase more, which the GGEM/Euro are showing. I think this might be one of those situations where the American Models keep playing catch up until the very end.

[Northern_IN_Wx]

The GEM is out of control...like the 12z Euro. I hope they verify Waits for 00z Euro ...and ignores NCEP models

[AppsRunner]

I'd be careful to buy into any guidance right now. The trend this fall has been for the Northern stream to be faster than initially forecasted, if this ends up being the case the cold air could very possibly arrive sooner and the 2 streams could phase more, which the GGEM/Euro are showing. I think this might be one of those situations where the American Models keep playing catch up until the very end.

Not to mention that it's poorly sampled, and the NCEP's have been struggling with sampling out west. Hard to buy into any solution now.

The GEM is out of control...like the 12z Euro. I hope they verify Waits for 00z Euro ...and ignores NCEP models

Ignoring NCEP models like its your job, aren't you? Oh wait... that is kind of your job.

[Thundersnow12]

0z Euro has 1004mb sfc low a tad southeast of EVV on the IN/KY border at 60hr

12z run had it on the OH/WV border

[Northern_IN_Wx]

Just taking a look at HPC preliminary NWS internal WWD graphics right now and they have a stripe of 8-10" in MI.

[Thundersnow12]

At 72hr the Euro has the best part of the defo band over LAF and 850mb temps below freezing but have to think there is a shallow warm layer near the sfc at that time.

[AppsRunner]

At 72hr the Euro has the best part of the defo band over LAF and 850mb temps below freezing but have to think there is a shallow warm layer near the sfc at that time.

1" of QPF with 2m temps at 1.8, 1.5, and .9C

850s are good though. Although coldest 850 temps are closer to FWA

[kab2791]

KMOP

WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.1 	1.6    1012      92 	100    0.46 	556 	547    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.7    -0.1    1007      89 	100    0.25 	550 	544    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -0.4    -3.1    1008      88      99    0.39 	545 	539    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   0.9 	0.5    1008      77      69    0.14 	547 	540    

KLAN

WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.4 	3.2    1008      97 	100    0.40 	555 	548    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.8    -2.8    1006      97      99    0.47 	546 	541    
WED 12Z 30-NOV   0.1    -4.0    1006      93      76    0.36 	543 	538    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   0.4    -2.2    1009      83      94    0.15 	547 	539    

KFWA

WED 00Z 30-NOV   4.1    -0.9    1006      95 	100    0.29 	548 	543    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   1.3    -3.1    1005      99      97    0.35 	544 	540    
WED 12Z 30-NOV   0.5    -4.3    1008      93      89    0.37 	547 	540    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   1.9    -2.6    1012      85      88    0.04 	550 	540 

[Thunder Road]

KMOP

WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.1 	1.6    1012      92 	100    0.46 	556 	547    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.7    -0.1    1007      89 	100    0.25 	550 	544    
WED 12Z 30-NOV  -0.4    -3.1    1008      88      99    0.39 	545 	539    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   0.9 	0.5    1008      77      69    0.14 	547 	540    

KLAN

WED 00Z 30-NOV   1.4 	3.2    1008      97 	100    0.40 	555 	548    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   0.8    -2.8    1006      97      99    0.47 	546 	541    
WED 12Z 30-NOV   0.1    -4.0    1006      93      76    0.36 	543 	538    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   0.4    -2.2    1009      83      94    0.15 	547 	539    

KFWA

WED 00Z 30-NOV   4.1    -0.9    1006      95 	100    0.29 	548 	543    
WED 06Z 30-NOV   1.3    -3.1    1005      99      97    0.35 	544 	540    
WED 12Z 30-NOV   0.5    -4.3    1008      93      89    0.37 	547 	540    
WED 18Z 30-NOV   1.9    -2.6    1012      85      88    0.04 	550 	540 

I hope this isn't too imby-ish, but do you have the numbers for VPZ?

[kab2791]

Wunderground Euro snow maps are out, nothing for VPZ

I hope this isn't too imby-ish, but do you have the numbers for VPZ?

[Thunder Road]

Wunderground Euro snow maps are out, nothing for VPZ

I saw that. We're fringed. I just wanted to see how the actual numbers compared to the wunderground snow maps.

[an uncanny otter]

I would be happy with a slushy inch or two out of this. Seems like nobody's really got a confident grasp of what's going to happen, so I'm not holding my breath until it actually happens.

[Hoosier]

Been away all day but my initial impression after looking at the 00z GFS/NAM is that we're probably just a bit short of cold air to allow for something really interesting for the LAF area. Around 72 hours the temp profiles are such that we could mix in some flakes if things really rip but a real changeover probably doesn't happen until about 78 hours and almost all of the precip is gone by then.

[wisconsinwx]

0z Euro has 1004mb sfc low a tad southeast of EVV on the IN/KY border at 60hr

12z run had it on the OH/WV border

Hmm, I think you're still in the running the way this is trending.

[Hoosier]

Anyway, 0z GGEM looks amped. Lacking our true cold air connection, but that's pretty clear at this point. Still think NE Indiana and the southern 1/2, 2/3 of lower MI stand the best chance at seeing accumulating snowfall.

That would appear to be the best area at this point. We should see flakes but any meaningful accumulation seems like it will be tough.

[Thundersnow12]

Hmm, I think you're still in the running the way this is trending.

don't think so.

[kab2791]

Oh, yeah, starting tomorrow and for the next 2 weeks, GRR radar will be down for Dual Polarization upgrade.

[michsnowfreak]

Wunderground Euro snow maps are out, nothing for VPZ

Anything for DTW?

[Thundersnow12]

Something that caught my eye..the RUC has much colder temps at 850mb around here tomorrow evening..-9 in eastern IA/northwest IL and -6 in Chicago.