QVectorman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Just for fun,I like the JMA, LOL >2.0 FTW...and based on 500 mb verification it's doing better than the GFS...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Yeah, I wasn't sure how those maps worked. 3hr or 6hr accumulation? I just added every three hour interval for the area just W of KLAN to come up with that number. I have no idea what goes into the algorithms to make those clown maps. I think your methodology of using the text output is a lot more sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Just for fun,I like the JMA, LOL >2.0 FTW...and based on 500 mb verification it's doing better than the GFS...FWIW The JMA can be OK at times... not sure I trust it here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Yeah, I wasn't sure how those maps worked. 3hr or 6hr accumulation? 3 hours I believe. But it could be like the NCEP maps where 6 hours worth of accums. are smoothed over 3 hour intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Wow looks like I will be tracking my first potential snowstorm for the season in Central MI... had a dusting of 1/2 inch or so earlier this month. This track on the 12z GFS is just weird going from eastern tennessee to toledo, I don't think I have seen a track like that in a long time.. if everything works out right (not likely) this could be a several inch snowstorm somewhere in the central lakes area edit: just bought some nice calcium chloride deicer today expecting some december fun with the coming cool pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Nice little area of snow possibly for northwest Ohio through early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Looking good for even Chicago to be able to sneak into the western edge of the band.. At least according to the 18z models and the nw trend... GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Not sold on this potential at all! It seems too close for comfort and a cold nasty rain is looking more likey every 6 hours. This applying to IBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 FWIW, the SREF mean is a bit further west than some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If only the northern stream could dig some more.. We could have been looking at a hell of a storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Congrats LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If we can get this thing to wind up a little bit earlier I think things could get interesting. Either way what a wet past 2 weeks we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Congrats LAF. Quick check of soundings shows mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Congrats LAF. EDIT: after looking at soundings. 95% 99.9% liquid here. Congrats FWA up through southern lower MI though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I would suspect that DTX might issue a flood watch due to the current system and this future storm. Liquid is the word. Next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I would suspect that DTX might issue a flood watch due to the current system and this future storm. Liquid is the word. Next storm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 NAM definitely likes southern lower MI for some snow. FWA probably gets in on it too, but the changeover may be too late for them for get much. Fluid situation obviously. But hey, at least there's a chance at some decent snow in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 what the hey. 0z NAM bozo maps. Actually, using the Kuchera algorithm, it seems pretty reasonable (except for getting me into the pale pink shade...completely unreasonable. I'll see 100% rain and like it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If the storm ends up as deep as the Euro somebody in northeast Indiana/southern MI will see a decent snow. Large bust potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 what the hey. 0z NAM bozo maps. Actually, using the Kuchera algorithm, it seems pretty reasonable (except for getting me into the pale pink shade...completely unreasonable. I'll see 100% rain and like it). NE MS and NW AL on the clown map. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 NE MS and NW AL. Heh. Typical jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Typical jackpot zone. Strange system. Ah well, at least the rain will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Typical jackpot zone. After reading the SE thread they actually are expecting some decent(for them) type of snow down there.. A met even wrote a write up saying 6 inch amounts in isolated spots wasn't out of the question.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 PSU EWALL being down for 15+ hours is lightly pissing me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Not sure if it has anything to do with the lack of cold air but the low pressure up in canada looks to inhibit the cold air from coming down early on for this storm. Eventually cold air is brought in when the low intensifies a bit but curious if there were no low up in canada, would there be more cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Strange system. Ah well, at least the rain will be cold. NYC, Philly already have more snow than me. Soon parts of the deep south will have more snow than me. Ah, this hobby of ours is so.....whatever. It's only November. I'm going to try and not come unhinged so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 NYC, Philly already have more snow than me. Soon parts of the deep south will have more snow than me. Ah, this hobby of ours is so.....whatever. It's only November. I'm going to try and not come unhinged so early. Hold it together Mike...PHL only has you beat by 0.3", NYC 2.9". Way way way too early to lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Not sure if it has anything to do with the lack of cold air but the low pressure up in canada looks to inhibit the cold air from coming down early on for this storm. Eventually cold air is brought in when the low intensifies a bit but curious if there were no low up in canada, would there be more cold air available. That sfc low in Canada is indicative of the fact that the storms are not phased. The Tuesday system is purely southern stream. If the two jets had phased, yeah, that cold air would have got entrained into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Hold it together Mike...PHL only has you beat by 0.3", NYC 2.9". Way way way too early to lose it. Even you LAF boys have your 0.1". Frozen water is a vexing mistress. But I'll save the ranting until after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 That sfc low in Canada is indicative of the fact that the storms are not phased. The Tuesday system is purely southern stream. If the two jets had phased, yeah, that cold air would have got entrained into the storm. There is still some time...granted though we are now closing in on 3 days and things can change. It seems now very hard to come close to a phase or partial phase. Interesting enough would be the potential of some dynamic cooling. That deform/trowel looks to produce great QPF and it's a shame the cold air is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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