Wow..New Eurotrash clobbers Lakes Region Late Thanksgiving weekend

[wxhstn74]

[Thunder Road]

1. Don't post threads twice.

2. Don't call the Euro trash.

3. I don't think you can post these maps publicly (you can't if you pay for them through another service).

4. Even if you can, provide some analysis, not just maps.

[wxhstn74]

1. Don't post threads twice.

2. Don't call the Euro trash.

3. I don't think you can post these maps publicly (you can't if you pay for them through another service).

4. Even if you can, provide some analysis, not just maps.

I guess my daily shipment of crap has arrived (per ID)

1- accident

2- ligten up it's a joke (it's one of the best models)

3- I don't pay and on net

4- first read my posting on WO and get back with me

[QVectorman]

1. Don't post threads twice.

2. Don't call the Euro trash.

3. I don't think you can post these maps publicly (you can't if you pay for them through another service).

4. Even if you can, provide some analysis, not just maps.

Kid, I'm just going to tell you don't be a DUCHE! As I have said before, you have a thing or two too learn before you trash ppl. Wxstn74 had at LEAST 15 years of service in at the NWS before you were even a twinkle in your father's eye. He knows and has seen more weather than you probably ever will. So go back to your Intro to meteorology curriculum since you still have at least 4 years before you get a piece of paper that says you know your ass from a hole in the ground. Secondly, don't burn bridges in forums because you never know who is behind the S/N and you could be burning bridges that you don't even know with ppl that could be interviewing you for a job someday. Just because they are new on here doesn't mean they are new in the weather community. There are may elder colleagues in the weather community that don't participate on forums b/c of chumps like you yet they have way more power and knowledge than you will ever acquire.

You are barking up the wrong tree b/c there are many posters in the GL and especially SE Mich. that hold Wxstn74's opinion in high regard and rightly so. He has earned many ppl's respect over the past 20 years.

Secondly, to add some substance here, even though it's 216 hrs out this is Wxstn74 specialty, he provided long range analysis at the DTW office.

Let the quality posts continue...sorry for this interruption.

[Chicago Storm]

1. Don't post threads twice.

2. Don't call the Euro trash.

3. I don't think you can post these maps publicly (you can't if you pay for them through another service).

4. Even if you can, provide some analysis, not just maps.

lol

[mnweather]

1. Don't post threads twice.

2. Don't call the Euro trash.

3. I don't think you can post these maps publicly (you can't if you pay for them through another service).

4. Even if you can, provide some analysis, not just maps.

Those maps are free. Easy to find.

[wisconsinwx]

Kid, I'm just going to tell you don't be a DUCHE! As I have said before, you have a thing or two too learn before you trash ppl. Wxstn74 had at LEAST 15 years of service in at the NWS before you were even a twinkle in your father's eye. He knows and has seen more weather than you probably ever will. So go back to your Intro to meteorology curriculum since you still have at least 4 years before you get a piece of paper that says you know your ass from a hole in the ground. Secondly, don't burn bridges in forums because you never know who is behind the S/N and you could be burning bridges that you don't even know with ppl that could be interviewing you for a job someday. Just because they are new on here doesn't mean they are new in the weather community. There are may elder colleagues in the weather community that don't participate on forums b/c of chumps like you yet they have way more power and knowledge than you will ever acquire.

I for one don't mind threads like this, but it is not typical for this forum to make a thread on one run and (even jokingly) trash a model. I think the mods might close this thread down unless this will just serve as a winter storm thread for the system over T-giving weekend.

[wxhstn74]

Kid, I'm just going to tell you don't be a DUCHE! As I have said before, you have a thing or two too learn before you trash ppl. Wxstn74 had at LEAST 15 years of service in at the NWS before you were even a twinkle in your father's eye. He knows and has seen more weather than you probably ever will. So go back to your Intro to meteorology curriculum since you still have at least 4 years before you get a piece of paper that says you know your ass from a hole in the ground. Secondly, don't burn bridges in forums because you never know who is behind the S/N and you could be burning bridges that you don't even know with ppl that could be interviewing you for a job someday. Just because they are new on here doesn't mean they are new in the weather community. There are may elder colleagues in the weather community that don't participate on forums b/c of chumps like you yet they have way more power and knowledge than you will ever acquire.

Yes, I just looked...18 years old? I thought it was some old geezer who wrote equations for the Euro. I have to laugh, you are right Q, I started analyzing the models way back in the Spectral days (just as the LFM I) was being tested 1973-74. We always had "terms of endearment" for the models. We couldn't live without them but in the very early days when I started you had one or two if lucky, Yep these yougin's have no respect ;-) Just joking young snip.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Kid, I'm just going to tell you don't be a DUCHE! As I have said before, you have a thing or two too learn before you trash ppl. Wxstn74 had at LEAST 15 years of service in at the NWS before you were even a twinkle in your father's eye. He knows and has seen more weather than you probably ever will. So go back to your Intro to meteorology curriculum since you still have at least 4 years before you get a piece of paper that says you know your ass from a hole in the ground. Secondly, don't burn bridges in forums because you never know who is behind the S/N and you could be burning bridges that you don't even know with ppl that could be interviewing you for a job someday. Just because they are new on here doesn't mean they are new in the weather community. There are may elder colleagues in the weather community that don't participate on forums b/c of chumps like you yet they have way more power and knowledge than you will ever acquire.

You are barking up the wrong tree b/c there are many posters in the GL and especially SE Mich. that hold Wxstn74's opinion in high regard and rightly so. He has earned many ppl's respect over the past 20 years.

Secondly, to add some substance here, even though it's 216 hrs out this is Wxstn74 specialty, he provided long range analysis at the DTW office.

Let the quality posts continue...sorry for this interruption.

BLunder Road got ABSOLUTELY OWNED!!!

[QVectorman]

I for one don't mind threads like this, but it is not typical for this forum to make a thread on one run and (even jokingly) trash a model. I think the mods might close this thread down unless this will just serve as a winter storm thread for the system over T-giving weekend.

There are already several threads on this entity in several of the NE forums. So this storm isn't a one run entity.

[Thundersnow12]

BLunder Road got ABSOLUTELY OWNED!!!

I wonder if he'll post again lol

[baroclinic_instability]

The threat title got my attention. This thread is full of LOL's.

"I guess my daily shipment of crap has arrived (per ID)"

Pwned.

Thunderoad still has a lot to learn. He is a young met though so I give him the benefit of the doubt.

[wxhstn74]

There are already several threads on this entity in several of the NE forums. So this storm isn't a one run entity.

I will have to learn more about these forums. Much different in the WFO. You worked side by side with people sometimes for years and more of a family atmosphere. You had so many types of personalities nearly all nuts about weather. Humor was the biggest asset after education and experience in the WFO. You needed the humor cause in this biz: the jabs come left/right and below the belt (and most from your fellow colleagues) and you "try" to develop a thick skin. I remember one of my first days on the job this guy in his 40s said to me "so are you another weather enthusiast spelled N U T? The rest of my career speaks volumes on that one and I don't care. Having "OCD" about you passion makes it that much more fun. I always knew the guys that were in right job in the office (about 90%) they LUVED wx.

Oh well, I guess I know how to liven up this board on a boring Sat aftn wx-wise (and Nov wise) at least until the next model run(s) ;-)

[QVectorman]

I don't have much time right now to give a full write up but the MJO has been in the 7,8,1 and forecasted to continue to phase 2 and from my research of my analog 2nd year la ninas, which I will provide more background later when I have more time, this wave on the Euro appears to fit the bill for what would be expected from any one of those four phases of the MJO. In fact, we are in the same phase as last month which ended up producing the huge snow storm in the NE except in a weaker magnitude of the MJO.

Quick eye ball, of the NAO, AO appears we are following the same pattern as late Oct. too!

Also, wxstn74 there isn't a thread on this sub forum about this storm yet. So it's all good. It's one of the caveats of American versus Eastern whether you view as good or bad. Eastern use to have one thread for the same storm across the nation, where as in American there are always 6 threads for every storm spanning multiple sub forums and you miss some quality discussion sometimes, I digress through. The "in my backyard weenies" prefer it this way. LOL.

[wxhstn74]

I don't have much time right now to give a full write up but the MJO has been in the 7,8,1 and forecasted to continue to phase 2 and from my research of my analog 2nd year la ninas, which I will provide more background later when I have more time, this wave on the Euro appears to fit the bill for what would be expected from any one of those four phases of the MJO. In fact, we are in the same phase as last month which ended up producing the huge snow storm in the NE except in a weaker magnitude of the MJO.

Quick eye ball, of the NAO, AO appears we are following the same pattern as late Oct. too!

Also, wxstn74 there isn't a thread on this sub forum about this storm yet. So it's all good. It's one of the caveats of American versus Eastern whether you view as good or bad. Eastern use to have one thread for the same storm across the nation, where as in American there are always 6 threads for every storm spanning multiple sub forums and you miss some quality discussion sometimes, I digress through. The "in my backyard weenies" prefer it this way. LOL.

I studied some (and read on it now) on the MJO while at NWS Training Center for a Climate Seminar under Ed Berry. While watching it's pattern, I noticed that the best encouragement for trough development over the MidW/East and storm development was in the very early stages 1or 2 of the MJO. Of course you needed other parameters to come together in the trough phasing right in the early stages of the cycle.

[SpartyOn]

This system has the potential it will be great to see how this pans out. Really liking how the pattern looks in the LR.

[dmc76]

1. Don't post threads twice.

2. Don't call the Euro trash.

3. I don't think you can post these maps publicly (you can't if you pay for them through another service).

4. Even if you can, provide some analysis, not just maps.

Please! Instigator. Get a life. He used to work for DTX NWS

[dmc76]

This system has the potential it will be great to see how this pans out. Really liking how the pattern looks in the LR.

1974 anyone??

[SpartyOn]

1974 anyone??

I was just thinking that.

[wxhstn74]

I was just thinking that.

I just posted this to Qvectorman (Dec '74 storm)

Whats ironic about the storm is that back on Tksgvg weekend 1974 (one of my analogues & I had started full time that year) we had the biggest snowstorm even to clobber Detroit in the time I worked and second in history. I worked the storm and was there at the office 24 hrs. Officially we had 19.4" that day and it was a very heavy wet snow. It too happened on the Sun after Tkgvg on 12/1. You know what the forecaster put out the night before? 1 - 3" The upper low/sfc was "supposed to" transfer to the E Cst like nearly all of them do and the Ohio Valley low weaken. Didn't Happen! The upper/sfc low closed off right over the Kentucky/Indiana/Ohio and E Cst Low acted as a conveyer-belt for moisture into the Eastern Lakes. Your area of Tecumseh north into the metro Detroit areas was bombed. Yeah, we'd have to come a long way on this one to end up like THAT one

I also worked the '78 blizzard...the one you just fell back in your chair with mouth gaped open in awe. I wrote about many of these storms and other notable wx events in SE Mich under my weather historian titled at DTX.

[London snowsquall]

I think it's great to finally get more pro mets (current or retired) especially from MI. onto this sub-forum which has been a wish of mine for years. They will provide much desired analysis on storm threats which will benefit us all in the lakes region. Let's not piss them off......

[beavis1729]

The threat title got my attention. This thread is full of LOL's.

"I guess my daily shipment of crap has arrived (per ID)"

Pwned.

Thunderoad still has a lot to learn. He is a young met though so I give him the benefit of the doubt.

Baro - I don't mean to speak for Bill...but as a mod, could you give him a red met. tag?

That way, it would help out folks who don't know who Bill is.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1974 anyone??

please no. That winter was awful in Ontario. One of the warmest Decembers recorded in Ottawa, and not a whole lot of snow in Toronto.

Still, it fits. I remember thinking this past spring when the midwest was getting all the tornadoes that it was similar to the April 1974 outbreak. 1974-75 was a second year La Nina.

[Chinook]

This looks like the setup for the 1950 Thanksgiving storm. It's 10 days out, so there's little chance of getting a pattern this extreme.

[Thunder Road]

Sorry everybody. Didn't know the user was a well-respected met. Was afraid the maps were from behind a paywall and I would hate to see AMWX get in trouble (I know Randy is always nervous about what content we post). All my bad though. Again, sorry.

(Also, my member title is referring to the GFS truck image, though I've been thinking of changing it.)

[Stebo]

This one does have potential, there is a very strong full latitudinal trough that will be moving Eastward just after Thanksgiving. The question will be whether it will cutoff in the SW or eject Eastward and close off somewhere in the East.

[Chicago WX]

Sorry everybody. Didn't know the user was a well-respected met. Was afraid the maps were from behind a paywall and I would hate to see AMWX get in trouble (I know Randy is always nervous about what content we post). All my bad though. Again, sorry.

(Also, my member title is referring to the GFS truck image, though I've been thinking of changing it.)

Stuff happens...you apologized, I'm sure everyone can move on.

The dressing down was a bit excessive to me though. There's better ways to explain to Thunder Road who the OP is IMHO, but I'm just a "in my backyard weenie"...what the hell do I know.

I think we do need to get the thread starter a red tag though, he's obviously earned it.

[Stebo]

I think we do need to get the thread starter a red tag though, he's obviously earned it.

Agree

[IWXwx]

This is OT, but wxhstn74, I want to thank you for taking the time to post here. I look forward to reading your analysis and thoughts this winter. It's great to have another seasoned veteran in our sub forum. I have no formal meteorological training, but I have a real love for studying the weather, particularly here in the Midwest. I have learned a great deal from those who post here. As a member of the Emergency Management community and a Skywarn officer, this is another tool in my belt. Once again, welcome.

EDIT: I think michsnowfreak is on vacation, but he will be ecstatic to find you posting here. He has been our resident Detroit historian here for a few years.

[Chicago WX]

This is OT, but wxhstn74, I want to thank you for taking the time to post here. I look forward to reading your analysis and thoughts this winter. It's great to have another seasoned veteran in our sub forum. I have no formal meteorological training, but I have a real love for studying the weather, particularly here in the Midwest. I have learned a great deal from those who post here. As a member of the Emergency Management community and a Skywarn officer, this is another tool in my belt. Once again, welcome.

Great post. I think everyone would echo this sentiment. Welcome aboard Mr. Deedler.

Back on topic, at least it looks like the 12z Euro ensembles don't completely dismiss this happening...