baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The more I look though, even with this bad initialization with the current band, it may seem the current weather watches across much of the northern plains may need some reshifting SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Is any model showing the snow band showing across iowa and minn right now? The 06Z has this weak band but then kills it off and fills in the rest farther SW as the main wave ejects into the plains. This first band will likely do very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the 12z ruc, nam, and rgem have increased qpf for me with freezing rain from .05-.08 to .15 to .20 that make a world of a difference if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Admittedly, my specialty is tropical weather (me being from Florida and all)... so I'm still trying to learn the eccentricities of winter weather forecasting (I know the general stuff from meteo school). I guess the thing that boggles my mind with this one is how far apart they are and how Louisville is stuck right in the middle. With models moving north and the precip trending north, I'm beginning to wonder if it doesn't end up that we see the most significant ice accumulations? This happens to us a lot. It wouldn't shock me if we get a lot of ice or if it ends up mainly snow. We almost never know what we are going to get in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 The 06Z has this weak band but then kills it off and fills in the rest farther SW as the main wave ejects into the plains. This first band will likely do very little. I dont even agree with the WAA for my area. 3-5"?? not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 FWIW...HRRR seems to pick up the band from eastern IA up into MN where the RUC doesn't have it. and then does this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I dont even agree with the WAA for my area. 3-5"?? not happening. 3-5" seems awfully high. Even the stalwart N outlier CMC took a huge drop S with the 0-6-12Z runs and came in much drier. I think we are seeing the influence of both the dry east low level flow and the retrograding east coast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 3-5" seems awfully high. Even the stalwart N outlier CMC took a huge drop S with the 0-6-12Z runs and came in much drier. I think we are seeing the influence of both the dry east low level flow and the retrograding east coast trough. Is this why the models this morning have backed up west with the heavier QPF down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 3-5" seems awfully high. Even the stalwart N outlier CMC took a huge drop S with the 0-6-12Z runs and came in much drier. I think we are seeing the influence of both the dry east low level flow and the retrograding east coast trough. im with you on this one baro....water vapor loop clearly shows that retrograding low bullying back to the sw, dry air and all. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wow, Chanhassen just plopped up a winter storm warning for central/western MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Winter Storm Warning for my area lol THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADY SNOW DURING THE EVENING HOURS... WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. * MAIN IMPACT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. * OTHER IMPACTS...LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING THE SNOWFALL... ALONG WITH ATTENDANT TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wow, Chanhassen just plopped up a winter storm warning for central/western MN. wow, for 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 im with you on this one baro....water vapor loop clearly shows that retrograding low bullying back to the sw, dry air and all. http://weather.unisy...us_loop-12.html Yeah that combo is tough to overcome. The CMC had a ton of qpf a couple days ago right in the center of all that dry air extending well into WI and parts of north-central MN. It seemed like an odd solution. It does look like hawkeye will finally get his snow and won't be in the screwzone though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 MPX did go WWA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. new ulm reporting light snow now from the band draped across southern mn I am not too optimistic, even for us in the SW burbs. UK/ECM/NAM seem to be right with the dry air influence and the retrograding low, and using that guidance, we may see 1-2" if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 GFS killed snow totals here... Kind of hoping for a new December record...guess i'll have to wait another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I am not too optimistic, even for us in the SW burbs. UK/ECM/NAM seem to be right with the dry air influence and the retrograding low, and using that guidance, we may see 1-2" if we are lucky. could very well be the case. nasty northern precip gradient is real clear on the NAM....verbatim, that's just about nothing at my house. haven't had time to look at much else as i'm finishing up finals and packing. MPX did just go winter storm warning to the southwest. they do acknowledge the uncertainty in the snowfall axis, though. still, i'm surprised they left out the tier of counties southwest of the mn river but included scott, carver, wright, and stearns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 could very well be the case. nasty northern precip gradient is real clear on the NAM....verbatim, that's just about nothing at my house. haven't had time to look at much else as i'm finishing up finals and packing. MPX did just go winter storm warning to the southwest. they do acknowledge the uncertainty in the snowfall axis, though. still, i'm surprised they left out the tier of counties southwest of the mn river but included scott, carver, wright, and stearns. Unbelievable. Their thoughts are definitely not with mine on this one. They also have Scott Cty in a warning. I see no way at this point Shakopee sees anything close to warning criteria with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Unbelievable. Their thoughts are definitely not with mine on this one. They also have Scott Cty in a warning. I see no way at this point Shakopee sees anything close to warning criteria with this. it is pretty confusing, esp. seeing as both the nam and gfs clearly trended away from the metro on the 12zs. i think i'd rather be in mankato than chanhassen right now for snow, yet the former only has a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here's one for the where the heck did THAT come from... WTHI that'll never verify. http://blogs.wthitv.com/2010/12/15/updated-snowfall-totals/?ref=nf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z DVN sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ILN has 3-5" warning for the far sw counties. Seems all of the nws offices are being bullish with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here's one for the where the heck did THAT come from... WTHI that'll never verify. http://blogs.wthitv....-totals/?ref=nf Yikes, I bet that thing smelled a bit considering where he must have pulled it from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 FWIW...HRRR seems to pick up the band from eastern IA up into MN where the RUC doesn't have it. The craptastic RUC is north...not surprising. By the way, those simulated radar images are worthless. I followed them with the last system to see how they would do...horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yikes, I bet that thing smelled a bit considering where he must have pulled it from. yep but IND is in the same boat too, issuing a WSW for 5-8" of snow for the areas south of Terre Haute.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 yep but IND is in the same boat too, issuing a WSW for 5-8" of snow for the areas south of Terre Haute.. They must have access to the super secret Hoosier weather model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 At 10:30 this morning the snow started to come down pretty good here, but the band petered out pretty quickly so we only got maybe a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 They must have access to the super secret Hoosier weather model. Here's KIND's thinking on this: http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINTER STORM.MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. TO EXTENT THEY DIFFER USING NAM WHICHNORMALLY CAPTURES MESOSCALE FEATURES BEST IN SHORTER TERM.BOTH MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG EQUIVALENT POTENTIALTEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN SOUTHERNCWA OVERNIGHT. SUCH AREAS FAVORBANDS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION. NAM NORMALLY BETTER WITHSUCH BANDS THAN GFS...AND I GENERALLY ACCEPT ITS QPF.THIS IN TURN IMPLIES STRONG UPWARD MOTION...GOOD COOLING OFCOLUMN... AND ENHANCED DENDRITIC GROWTH. SO DECREASED CHANCE OFANYTHING BUT SNOW...INCREASED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS. SOUNDINGSSUPPORT THE MOSTLY SNOW CONCEPT...BUT SLEET OR ZR NOT OUT OFQUESTION IN SOUTH. USING AN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY SNOW RATIO OF 15 TO 1GIVES 5 TO 7 INCHES OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH...JUSTIFYING WARNING THERE. STICKING WITH NAM QPF SNOW RAPIDLY DECREASES TO NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's been snowing here pretty lightly since about 10 AM...So far about 0.75" of snow from this first band. http://www.mnsu.edu/weather/skycam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ILX radar has been down since a little after 9 am this morning. LOT has taken over for ILX's cwa. I did not read or hear anything about routine maintenance so they must be having major problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ILX radar has been down since a little after 9 am this morning. LOT has taken over for ILX's cwa. I did not read or hear anything about routine maintenance so they must be having major problems. must be, the mid morning AFD update came from LOT.. Which probeley means the WWA will be dropped knowing LOT just kidding... no message from ILX as to why everything is down too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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