12/15-12/16 MV/GL snow event?

[csnavywx]

FWIW, the 9z SREF ensemble mean QPF took a big jog south in IL (for NE IL) and IN (for NW IN down to here).

This is because all of the ETA members went south. None of the SREF's other model members did this. So either they're all on crack, or the NAM is.

[csnavywx]

Snow reaching the ground already in N-Cen. Iowa. 12z soundings from DVN and ILX were dry, but not super dry, and had a couple of moist layers mixed in there.

[Chicago WX]

This is because all of the ETA members went south. None of the SREF's other model members did this. So either they're all on crack, or the NAM is.

Ah, I failed to look at the individual members. Thanks. NAM certainly is running with this dry/south thing pretty hard. A coup or on crack?

[IndySnow]

FWIW:

Fox59 had us in a dusting.

Randy on 8 had us on the 3-5/1-3 line.

Nicole on 13 had the whole area in 2-4.

I didn't (and usually don't care to) watch 6.

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

FWIW:

Just watched Fox59's morning forecast with Jim Obrien and he's got Howard Co. in the 2-4/1-3 inch range, not sure where your at, but hope this puts some snow closer to you

[csnavywx]

Ah, I failed to look at the individual members. Thanks. NAM certainly is running with this dry/south thing pretty hard. A coup or on crack?

It's a little hard to just throw it away, especially since I've seen it score big up close like this.

Having said that, it's not matching current obs in the precip category very well, and even the 4km WRF, which will typically agree with it in this time frame, does not (it shifted north from its previous run). The NAM is an aggravating model to use, and in this case, with so much riding against its extreme solution of zero snow from a line 50 miles south of RFD-ORD, I'm inclined to throw it out.

[jhamps10]

While the northern side is dryer and south, the southern part with the ice/sleet/snow mix is actually a bit wetter and further west, bringing more QPF over Southeastern Illinois that looks to be mainly in the form of freezing rain and sleet.

[csnavywx]

Looks like Hawkeye should start seeing some flakes soon. Snowing pretty hard aloft over CID.

[jhamps10]

Looks like Hawkeye should start seeing some flakes soon. Snowing pretty hard aloft over CID.

what are you thinking on a possible start time down here south of I-70, 6-7PM give or take?

[Thundersnow12]

Looks like Hawkeye should start seeing some flakes soon. Snowing pretty hard aloft over CID.

what you thinking for us out here?

[hawkeye_wx]

Seeing a few flurries here.

[csnavywx]

what are you thinking on a possible start time down here south of I-70, 6-7PM give or take?

You guys don't really get going until 8-10 pm, but you will begin to saturate around 5-6 pm, so a few flakes or bouts of intermittent light snow between 6-8 are possible. Precip should fill in rapidly after about 9 though, as that LLJ really gets cranking and throwing Gulf moisture over the top of the boundary.

[csnavywx]

what you thinking for us out here?

It's gonna be a long, hard road for us. I picture you starting after 11 pm or midnight, though you're going to be very close to the precip cutoff. I'm not in a much better situation, but may start after 9 pm.

It may start earlier if we can get the current band to push a little more NE and partially saturate the column before the main band sets up.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

It appears the Wilmington and Louisville offices are in a bit of a tuff over Winter Storm Warnings and WWA for N KY. The ice accumulation probabilities, especially when looking at qpf, are looking pretty good for Louisville and points E/SE. That heavy snow band setup that models are showing too for SE IN/N Bluegrass looks intriguing.

[Chicago Storm]

what you thinking for us out here?

Dusting at best.

[csnavywx]

Dusting at best.

[janetjanet998]

GFS south too...BUT seems To be missing the snow over IA now

[Thundersnow12]

GFS south too...BUT seems To be missing the snow over IA now

Time for LOT to cancel my WAA lol

[jhamps10]

OK I could see this verifying east of I-65, but vincennes????I don't think so

/O.UPG.KIND.WW.Y.0009.101216T0000Z-101216T1800Z//O.NEW.KIND.WS.W.0005.101216T0000Z-101216T1800Z/SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR1041 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PMEST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED.* ACCUMULATIONS: FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING: SNOW WILL START LATE THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL END THURSDAY MORNING.

[hawkeye_wx]

The morning models are promising for CR. Current radar shows me directly under the brighter green returns, but it is still barely even flurrying. Models don't show much here until after supper, though.

[Stevo6899]

5-8 inches for southern indiana? Temps looks to be in the 30's. I would think 3-5 would be more realistic but what do i know.

[jhamps10]

5-8 inches for southern indiana? Temps looks to be in the 30's. I would think 3-5 would be more realistic but what do i know.

Yeah eastern areas MAYBE, but by the wabash, there's NO way on earth they get 5-8", heck when I seen it I thought KIND was going to WSW for ice threats more than anything..

[msp]

MPX did go WWA

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

new ulm reporting light snow now from the band draped across southern mn

[daddylonglegs]

Holding strong as -6F here... Going to be a while before it gets over here. According to the GFS, it looks like any shift and i could have 6 inches or nothing.

[janetjanet998]

OK I could see this verifying east of I-65, but vincennes????I don't think so

/O.UPG.KIND.WW.Y.0009.101216T0000Z-101216T1800Z//O.NEW.KIND.WS.W.0005.101216T0000Z-101216T1800Z/SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR1041 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PMEST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME COVERED WITH SNOW TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. THE THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED.* ACCUMULATIONS: FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING: SNOW WILL START LATE THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL END THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

ONLY CHANGE TO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ISSUED WARNING FOR SOUTHERN

TWO TIERS IN RESPONSE TO MUCH HIGHER QPF FROM 12Z NAM THAN

PREVIOUSLY. WHILE IT MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH CONSIDERING WHAT OTHER

MODELS ARE SHOWING. HOWEVER STRONG LIFT SHOULD PROMOTE DENDRITIC

GROWTH ENOUGH TO BUMP UP SNOW RATIOS TO AT LEAST 15 TO ONE...WHICH

WOULD DEFINITELY PUSH INTO WARNING TERRITORY.

STRONG LIFT SHOULD AT LEAST KEEP COLUMN COOL AND REDUCE CHANCE OF

ANYTHING BUT SNOW...BUT BASED ON SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z NAM SLEET OR

ZR NOT OUT OF QUESTION AND WILL KEEP CHANCE IN WHERE HAD IT BEFORE.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

NWS Louisville is saying a corridor of ice accumulations 0.25"-0.5" from Jasper, IN to Elizabethtown and Liberty, KY with local amounts exceeding 0.5"... that's interesting. I feel like the Louisville metro area is being squeezed between the sig ice and heavy snow bands... almost feels unrealistic?

[csnavywx]

NWS Louisville is staying a corridor of ice accumulations 0.25"-0.5" from Jasper, IN to Elizabethtown and Liberty, KY with local amounts exceeding 0.5"... that's interesting. I feel like the Louisville metro area is being squeezed between the sig ice and heavy snow bands... almost feels unrealistic?

It's not all that unusual to have a heavy snow band set up immediately north of the freezing rain zone due to strong diabatic cooling from melting. Usually there's a zone of IP, but I've seen the former quite a few times as well.

[goknights]

Is any model showing the snow band showing across iowa and minn right now?

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

It's not all that unusual to have a heavy snow band set up immediately north of the freezing rain zone due to strong diabatic cooling from melting. Usually there's a zone of IP, but I've seen the former quite a few times as well.

Admittedly, my specialty is tropical weather (me being from Florida and all)... so I'm still trying to learn the eccentricities of winter weather forecasting (I know the general stuff from meteo school).

I guess the thing that boggles my mind with this one is how far apart they are and how Louisville is stuck right in the middle. With models moving north and the precip trending north, I'm beginning to wonder if it doesn't end up that we see the most significant ice accumulations?

[baroclinic_instability]

Models initializing horribly with the current band. NAM is way too far south. I am sticking with 0Z guidance mostly. Worth noting during super clipper ALL NCEP guidance (NAM/GFS/SREF) all took a huge SW trend and bit on low level frontogenesis dominating and ended up busting bad while all global guidance generally nailed everything across MN.

[baroclinic_instability]

I think one thing all models caught onto though is the dry trend, and I don't see any 6-7" amounts like earlier runs suggested for anyone. North end cutoff will still be sharp.