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12/15-12/16 MV/GL snow event?

Thundersnow12

By Thundersnow12,
in Central/Western States

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
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I wouldn't mind the GFS, really dont want to be on the north side of the cut off but the NAM is showing that. very tough forecast

Yeah I think the NAM placement with the overall heavier QPF seems ok, but I think its cutoff on the northern edge is too far S. I think the NAM is really trying to show dry air killing off qpf on the cold side (higher side) of the quasi-warm front. A lot of dry air will exist down there, but I don't know if the cutoff will be that far S.

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Justin

Justin

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A good general 3" snowfall in our region along and N of Cedar Rapids-Muscatine-Galesburg line. The heaviest axis on snow likely runs from Waterloo-Clinton-Sterling line. In that axis could see some isolated 4-5" amounts. I don't think there will be much of anything more than that. Always have a few surprises with these things though and mesoscale details can't be shown on the models...but I think folks North of Highway 30 in Iowa (East of Cedar Rapids) into Illinois should be good for a decent snowfall. There will be, I think, a pretty serious cut off to the SW and NE of the main snow band though. There will be a lot of dry air feeding in from the Easterly flow and I have some concerns that flow may really into some of the precipitable water values which is why I don't think I'd go more than a general 3" snowfall on this, but we'll see how the NWS offices handle this in their advisories.

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Justin

Justin

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And further SE from Sterling IL will see decent snows towards Indianapolis but again general 3" amounts is about all I'd go with. From Indianapolis off to the East there might be a bit more moisture ingestion and that could beef up some of the totals from Eastern Indiana into Ohio perhaps allowing a few places to hit 4-6".

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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A good general 3" snowfall in our region along and N of Cedar Rapids-Muscatine-Galesburg line. The heaviest axis on snow likely runs from Waterloo-Clinton-Sterling line. In that axis could see some isolated 4-5" amounts. I don't think there will be much of anything more than that. Always have a few surprises with these things though and mesoscale details can't be shown on the models...but I think folks North of Highway 30 in Iowa (East of Cedar Rapids) into Illinois should be good for a decent snowfall. There will be, I think, a pretty serious cut off to the SW and NE of the main snow band though. There will be a lot of dry air feeding in from the Easterly flow and I have some concerns that flow may really into some of the precipitable water values which is why I don't think I'd go more than a general 3" snowfall on this, but we'll see how the NWS offices handle this in their advisories.

really dont like dry air being my problem lol guess we'll see how big a role it plays for northeast IL

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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A good general 3" snowfall in our region along and N of Cedar Rapids-Muscatine-Galesburg line. The heaviest axis on snow likely runs from Waterloo-Clinton-Sterling line. In that axis could see some isolated 4-5" amounts. I don't think there will be much of anything more than that. Always have a few surprises with these things though and mesoscale details can't be shown on the models...but I think folks North of Highway 30 in Iowa (East of Cedar Rapids) into Illinois should be good for a decent snowfall. There will be, I think, a pretty serious cut off to the SW and NE of the main snow band though. There will be a lot of dry air feeding in from the Easterly flow and I have some concerns that flow may really into some of the precipitable water values which is why I don't think I'd go more than a general 3" snowfall on this, but we'll see how the NWS offices handle this in their advisories.

Yeah I agree, I think the NAM is on to something regarding its dry bias compared to the other guidance. Also this system won't have the strong ageo jet circulation and intense frontogenesis like super clipper did, so there shouldn't be any significant and intense mesoscale bands that develop for any long periods of time.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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21z SREF def bumped up chances for a a nicer DGZ and a larger area then previous runs.

Yeah wow, they definitely went higher on the probs. The hit over NE Iowa isn't a surprise but the 90% pops is. Looking at the GFS is does have a more amplifed 500 hpa wave and it looks like guidance is more suggestive of more persistent synoptic ascent well above the front.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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Yeah wow, they definitely went higher on the probs. The hit over NE Iowa isn't a surprise but the 90% pops is. Looking at the GFS is does have a more amplifed 500 hpa wave and it looks like guidance is more suggestive of more persistent synoptic ascent well above the front.

Sounds like the GFS is picking up on the more persistent ascent compared to the NAM then. It's weird seeing the NAM a little drier than the GFS on a system that's less than 24hrs away. Usually it's the other way around.

Edit: I should add I've noticed the NAM is about 6hrs slower to deliver the onset of precip to parts of Iowa and Illinois too. That may be why it's cutting down on amounts a little..

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Sounds like the GFS is picking up on the more persistent ascent compared to the NAM then. It's weird seeing the NAM a little drier than the GFS on a system that's less than 24hrs away. Usually it's the other way around.

Edit: I should add I've noticed the NAM is about 6hrs slower to deliver the onset of precip to parts of Iowa and Illinois too. That may be why it's cutting down on amounts a little..

I think NAM is showing the influence of the dry air more than the GFS solution.

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snowlord81

snowlord81

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Not expecting spectacular ratios here, but with general model qpf agreement between .2 and .35 (NAM a touch less), I'm really liking the 2-4" range.

Agree, Im liking a 3-4 inch snow here, with some isolated area's possibly picking up 5. If you take a general consenus on track, LAF TO IND are in the bullseye IMO. Im not looking to deep into it though, I've still got a headache from tracking the last storm!

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B-Rent

B-Rent

Posted
Posted

Two Advisories out from IND:

SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR

408 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING

RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST

THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO SNOW THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET

OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME

DIFFICULT DUE TO ICY ROADS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE

THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE

POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN

INCH.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET...TRANSITIONING TO

A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING.

WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-HAMILTON-

VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-

MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...

CRAWFORDSVILLE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...SHELBYVILLE...

BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS

408 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

1 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS

EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO SNOW TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. THE

THURSDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR WILL BE IMPACTED.

* ACCUMULATIONS: TWO TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY

THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING

RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TERRE HAUTE TO BLOOMINGTON TO

GREENSBURG LINE.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET...BECOMING HEAVIER

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY

MORNING.

They left NE of N65/S74 in the clear.

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Justin

Justin

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NWS DVN must be thinking a wetter solution since they are going with 3-6" here. Don't think we will get the high end, the low end for sure. Some of the models that trended North overnight really have a sharp cutoff to the immediate SW of the metro QC... better hope this doesn't waiver any further to the NE or we might only be looking at 1-2" here locally... I hope not, it would be nice to be in the bulls eye so to speak for a change.

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B-Rent

B-Rent

Posted
Posted
<br /><br />

<br />

<img src='http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':thumbsdown:' /> Sure looks like Kokomo will retain the title of <i><b>Screw Zone</b></i> with the system. I can see an inch or less with this one unless there is a shift north/northeast.<br />

FWIW:

Fox59 had us in a dusting.

Randy on 8 had us on the 3-5/1-3 line.

Nicole on 13 had the whole area in 2-4.

I didn't (and usually don't care to) watch 6.

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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NWS DVN must be thinking a wetter solution since they are going with 3-6" here. Don't think we will get the high end, the low end for sure. Some of the models that trended North overnight really have a sharp cutoff to the immediate SW of the metro QC... better hope this doesn't waiver any further to the NE or we might only be looking at 1-2" here locally... I hope not, it would be nice to be in the bulls eye so to speak for a change.

It's going to be close. The 06z GFS is a touch more wet than the 00z. Brings a band of >0.50" through the QC, with even a few 0.60" bands just north of DVN. Sure looks like the QC is in line for at least 4 inches, but like you said any more shifts north will lower amounts. I'm starting to think we may do pretty decent here as well, at something like 4-5 inches.

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