Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That monstrosity over the NE U.S./SE Canada is a killer for here, via the 0z NAM. Good hit of snow for MN and IA, and then a decent icing/mix event for S IL, S IN, and KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah you were right on the money with what you said. I just wished the Euro looked like the gfs precip map more and I would feel a lot better that the snow doesn't pull a Houdini out this way. Still time for it to look better on this side of the state but seems unlikely in the big picture ATM. Trace to a few tenths is my final call here. I've probably lost a yr off my life this winter already tracking the last three events for a total of 6" of snow.. But this is what I wait 8 months for and I wouldn't have wanted Dec. to start out any other way... well maybe better snow results lol.. If there wouldn't be a few highs and lots of lows every storm, what fun would tracking be except my body wouldn't be fried today.. Been following this next clipper half ashed since later last week on the euro. There's been a few blips where its showed OK here but it now seems to be locking into a not so ok solution.. not sure it really makes any sense to follow this one like a mad man every 6 hrs like the last 3...who knows, maybe it will surprise me if I don't. Then we look to maybe quiet down outside of a few inevitable clippers.... If we do have to slow down for a bit At least I'll be recharged with a new attitude for the final 2/3's of winter. I think taking a break a few nights a week is a good thing. I did that with this last system. I'd watch the NAM come out and then call it a night...the rest of the model suite could wait for the morning. It was kind of nice really. Of course I kind of wrote it off for LAF fairly early, so that probably helped in my decision. But I commend your good spirits so far this winter, it hasn't be the best start for MKE...although not a complete disaster either. Just have to hold out hope that things turn around once the AO on steroids gives way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 That monstrosity over the NE U.S./SE Canada is a killer for here, via the 0z NAM. Good hit of snow for MN and IA, and then a decent icing/mix event for S IL, S IN, and KY. Watching the weather forecast here in St. Louis is calling for light freezing rain Wed PM to Thursday. I would like to just ask for Rain or Snow, nothing in between. A quick OT, coming across Illinois this morning I-70 between Casey and Effingham, it was a semi graveyard. Must of been a dozen various accidents across a span of 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 These diffuse clippers can be tricky to forecast. The band of heavier snowfall isn't particularly wide, so it probably won't be until tomorrow night before I become confident enough to call amounts for this area. Like some others have mentioned, sometimes these clippers can overachieve, so it's definitely worth watching. Since we usually fail miserably with the powerful/dynamic storm systems around here, I'm all for a parade of clippers. Nickel and dime snows are better than dry slots lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 00z euro amt for wed system is .10-.25 from msp-quad citys-lot-lafettye-indy-cincy. Cincy prob gets .25-.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 0z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO START FALLING THERE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END THURSDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS MOISTURE OUT TO THE EAST. * MAIN IMPACT: A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON ALREADY SNOW COVERED GROUNDS. THE RESULTING ICE WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A SIGNIFICANT COATING OF ICE ON POWER LINES...TREES...AND OTHER SUSCEPTIBLE SURFACES IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 HPC expanded the 4" zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like a nice little event for LAF-IND-CVG. You LAF guys are gold on this one. Too bad it's only 2"-3". Could get icey for Beau. I'll take my trace and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS spits out a lot of precip here... Time to break that December snow record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NAM has me bout .25 inches and Quad cities closer to .33...zip for ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS paints 6-8 around here... I guess we'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NAM has me bout .25 inches and Quad cities closer to .33...zip for ORD Nothing else agrees with the NAM on its solution thusfar, and I couldn't even find one SREF member that came close to matching it, even its own ETA members, making it a fairly dubious solution. It is pretty much alone, with the GFS being the closest, but even that isn't saying much. It would be quite the model coup if it managed to come out on top for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Northern Illinois looks good(so far) with the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like a nice little event for LAF-IND-CVG. You LAF guys are gold on this one. Too bad it's only 2"-3". Could get icey for Beau. I'll take my trace and be happy. Jinxed. KIND thinking 15:1 ratio snows with the sweet spot being the I-70 corridor (2-3") per their overnight AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Northern QC looking pretty good with this one. They may make up for that last disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Nice little blob of 0.50" between DBQ and DVN on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Anyone got a decent graphic of rgem qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Anyone got a decent graphic of rgem qpf? These are the two best I got. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=000&map=na〈=en http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 gfs is getting there.... this is odd, to see the gfs more robust on a system than the nam.. Gfs also has support of the rgem. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the nam shift n and juicier, dratically, at 18 or 00z...probably even to the point of overdoing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like the RGEM and 12z GFS are in pretty good agreement, RGEM looks like it could be a tad more northeast with the heaviest area of snow but hard to tell. 12z GFS looks like around .25 liquid at ORD and with good ratios this could be a nice little 3-4" event if things pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 FWIW and not much FIM supports slightly further northeast solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I don't like the way Cedar Rapids is on the sw edge of another clipper snow on the GFS and GEM. The GFS was too broad with the precip on the sw edge last time and we barely got anything. It would be a big slap in the face to us in CR if this new system dumps on Minnesota to Dubuque and leaves us with nothing yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Going over everything from 0z to the 12z runs, and I'm going to make a 1st guess of 1-3" for here. I think we'll end up riding the southern edge of the snow band with areas just north of here getting into the 2-4, maybe 5" band (ORD, NW-N IN, FWA, etc.). Hopefully the QC guys, BowMe/southeast WI peeps, and the southwest MI crew can score with this one, which I think is certainly on the table. Going to have to watch the icing/mix concern creeping up to Indy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 How does snow growth look with this? I would assume most places well NE of me will still have pretty cold temps above 800mb but it seems things might get a big warmer around 750-875? If the precip growth is between 500 and 700 mb should be pretty good. that is for LAF during the Nam and GFS peak snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I don't like the way Cedar Rapids is on the sw edge of another clipper snow on the GFS and GEM. The GFS was too broad with the precip on the sw edge last time and we barely got anything. It would be a big slap in the face to us in CR if this new system dumps on Minnesota to Dubuque and leaves us with nothing yet again. I feel for you. I have been missed to the north, south, east, and west so far. There is grass showing and 20 minutes in almost any direction has several inches in the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 How does snow growth look with this? I would assume most places well NE of me will still have pretty cold temps above 800mb but it seems things might get a big warmer around 750-875? If the precip growth is between 500 and 700 mb should be pretty good. that is for LAF during the Nam and GFS peak snow rates. The DGZ wont be that deep with this system for most areas it looks like, but the better ratios up here will get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z RGEM goes crazy in NE IA. Here's the 48 hour total snowfall (liquid equiv.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 How does snow growth look with this? I would assume most places well NE of me will still have pretty cold temps above 800mb but it seems things might get a big warmer around 750-875? If the precip growth is between 500 and 700 mb should be pretty good. that is for LAF during the Nam and GFS peak snow rates. The greatest forcing with this storm will be dominated in the low levels in the zone of warm air advection and along the frontal zone which is below 700 hpa. You can in a way see that in the thermal profile of the sounding alone. There will be better thermals heading north into the colder air, but the forcing into the dendritic growth zone will be rather weak. The amount of forced ascent through this zone is key to growth. Snow factors across most areas will not be all that high, prolly 10/12-1 on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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