12/15-12/16 MV/GL snow event?

[TugHillMatt]

Not with this kind of blocking. Well i should say the chances are small. Thankfully it has not been to bad down this way the past few winters. You would have loved 07-08 where you are and i thought 08-09 was good up that way as well? Anyways it is gonna be hard for us to get much from anything with this type of block showing up on modeling. Thus hope the models are wrong. Ofcourse something could still slip through but odd's are against it till the blocking is gone or shifted. We'll see anyways.

Yeah that's what many people around have said...they said those winters there was tons of snow....07-08 was somewhere around 150 inches and the next winter was well over 100 inches too. I wasn't here for either of those winters. It's pretty much been one miss after another since...the lake effect hasn't even really been that impressive either. I guess I came with big expectations and have been a little disappointed (but then again I also lived in an awesome lake effect snowbelt north of barrie. ontario for two years before this)

[Thundersnow12]

[Stebo]

Its staying consistent if anything.

[Harry]

Yeah that's what many people around have said...they said those winters there was tons of snow....07-08 was somewhere around 150 inches and the next winter was well over 100 inches too. I wasn't here for either of those winters. It's pretty much been one miss after another since...the lake effect hasn't even really been that impressive either. I guess I came with big expectations and have been a little disappointed (but then again I also lived in an awesome lake effect snowbelt north of barrie. ontario for two years before this)

Yeah with this type of blocking we get screwed on both fronts and thus system and LES as well. Get a ton of these crappy north/nnw flow events vs our preferred west flow. Still plenty of winter left. Lets hope the Canadian can pull this puppy out!

[Thundersnow12]

It is interesting to see the way the models differ with the Pacific cyclone as it comes onshore with the GFS developing a well developed cyclone over MT and sending a weaker upper tropospheric wave into the plains while the NAM has a beefier shortwave into the plains and little development over MT. The retrogression of that east coast low will be prominent too.

NAM

GFS

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

ANOTHER

ROUND OF SNOW IS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS A

PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT ON THE EVOLUTION

OF THE SYSTEM. TRENDED CLOSER TO A SOLUTION WHICH DOES NOT PHASE

THE NRN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AND MAINTAINS SEPARATE SHORTWAVES AND

DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING PCPN PATTERN IS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WARM

ADVECTION SNOW. NONE OF THE MODELS GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF

LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF...BUT WITH DEEP LAYER COLD AIR IN

PLACE...RESULTING SNOW RATIOS WOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH AND EVEN SMALL

AMOUNTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD GENERATE A COUPLE INCHES OF DRY

SNOW. HOWEVER...IF MORE PHASING OF THE STREAMS CAN OCCUR THAN IS

CURRENTLY INDICATED...THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER PCPN

AMOUNTS IF SOME GULF MOISTURE CAN BE TAPPED BY GREATER SURFACE LOW

DEVELOPMENT.

KREIN

[A-L-E-K]

LOT

A 1-4" event is looking pretty good, 9z SREF look like Northern Illinois is in a good spot.

[Chicago WX]

1-3" seems like a good preliminary call for here. Of course as usual, subject to change.

[Thundersnow12]

DVN

WILL KEEP THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE WED

NIGHT INTO THU MORNING PERIODS AS LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO

THE NORTH COMBINES WITH A WEAK 850 MB LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH TO

BRING A PERIOD OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. AS MENTIONED IN THE

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BALLPARK OF 2 TO 5

INCHES SNOWFALL STILL LOOK REASONABLE...BUT STILL TOO EARLY FOR MORE

PRECISE AMOUNTS.

DMX

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO CUT ACROSS THE

STATE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT

AVAILABLE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FN VECTOR

DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 750-700MB AND 650-600MB ACCORDING TO THE GFS.

NAM IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH BUT STILL HAS A MENTION OF THE

FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AVAILABLE. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE UP TO AROUND A

QUARTER OF AN INCH. BUMPED POPS UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

SREF/GFS PASTES ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AN EST TO ALO LINE WITH

ECMWF A LITTLE LESS IN THE AMOUNTS. SYSTEM QUICKLY PUSHES OUT BY

EARLY THURSDAY AND DECREASED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST

ON THURSDAY.

MKX

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE NORTHERN

PLAINS THAT WILL BRING A SWATH OF SNOW TO THE MIDWEST. THE SNOW

SWATH WILL ALSO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED

WITH A SFC LOW CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY

CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SWATH BEGINNING IN SW CWA WED

AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THU...EXITING THE

CWA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. SNOW WOULD BE LIGHT...BUT FAIRLY

CONTINUOUS.

SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE IN THE 12 TO 15:1 RANGE AND QPF EXPECTED TO BE

FAIRLY LIGHT. PRELIMINARY SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM

RANGE FROM UP TO 4 INCHES IN SW CWA TO 1.5 INCHES IN NE CWA. STAY

TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.

[Thundersnow12]

[Hoosier]

1-3" seems like a good preliminary call for here. Of course as usual, subject to change.

I'm gonna wait another run before I make a call. That seems like a pretty good starting point though given some lingering uncertainties.

[baroclinic_instability]

I would watch the retrogression of the east coast low which would shunt a large amount of the precip farther W and S. ECM and to a degree GFS suggest this.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I would watch the retrogression of the east coast low which would shunt a large amount of the precip farther W and S. ECM and to a degree GFS suggest this.

Only south and West enough for me to get freezing rain, hopefully if all goes well the clipper will drop an inch or two, these typically way over perform, exp when they are long a cold to warm boundary like the models have.

give me 1-2 inches with that and sleet/freezing rain on top of it to seal it in, sounds good to me.

I'd rather have ice protecting the snow pack since the ground is frozen, so both sides get protected then the snow to melt off even with sub freezing temps. If all goes right, this may be the longest snow cover my area has had in over a decade.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Not much consistency

:

[Chicago Storm]

DVN

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS THE TIME FRAME FOR SEEING THE BULK

OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN

THE MODELS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE

LIKELY CATEGORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN

OUR FAR SOUTH. SNOW RATIOS ABOUT 12:1 SOUTH TO 15:1 NORTH SHOULD

YIELD AN AVERAGE 2 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL OF ARCTIC FLUFF...WITH THE

HIGHER TOTALS IN NORTHEAST IOWA ALONG HIGHWAY 20. THE EXCEPTION WILL

BE OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES.

LUCKILY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT SO BLOWING/DRIFTING SHOULD

NOT BE A FACTOR. MORE THAN LIKELY WE WILL NEED AN ADVISORY HEADLINE

FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENT BUT THIS IS TOO SOON.

SPECIFICALLY LOOKING FOR LESS THAN 2 INCHES SOUTH...2 TO 4 INCHES

ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND 3 TO 5 INCHES NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT AN

ISOLATED 6 INCH AMOUNT IN NORTHEAST IOWA ALONG HIGHWAY 20 IF THE

SNOW RATIOS END UP BEING 20:1.

[Thundersnow12]

GEM on the other hand has been pretty consistent

12z run

[Thundersnow12]

MKX

MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS NEXT SNOW EVENT. THE

THE RIBBON OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE

DEFICITS DRIFTS ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WEAKENS WITH TIME GOING INTO

THURSDAY. THE BEST CORRESPONDING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REGION

PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA AND THEN WEAKENS AS THE MID LEVEL

SHORT WAVE FLATTENS OUT. THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM LOOK PRETTY

SIMILAR...WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST ON QPF. ISENTROPICALLY...THERE

IS ABOUT 2G/KG AVAILABLE FOR THE SW CWA...TRAILING OFF QUICKLY TO

THE NE. GARCIA METHOD WOULD SUGGEST 4 INCHES POSSIBLE DOWN

THERE...BUT GIVEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE FORCING...PREFER TO STICK

CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES. THE NE CWA MAY ONLY SEE FLURRIES FROM ALL

THIS.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF

OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKY

MOUNTAINS. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT

LOOKS AS IF THE FORECAST AREA WILL FALL INTO A BROAD AREA OF

ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WONT GET TOO SPECIFIC

ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS YET...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE A FEW INCHES ARE

POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT.

[Jim Martin]

CLE:

Short term /Tuesday through Thursday night/... a weak trough will cross the area early Tuesday. This will likely briefly disrupt the lake effect and spread it out and allow it to reorganize again in multi bands later.

The decreasing/shifting trend should begin sometime Tuesday afternoon/evening. Definitely much drier air than last weeks event...but snow ratios higher so where it snows the fluff will add up.

Flow begins to back...drawing in that drier air by Wednesday. For now warning ending at 7 am Wednesday still looks good. Thursdays system still look to pass south of the area with faster more zonal flow.

Temperatures will remain cold and well below normal. Around 20 for highs and single digits or teens for lows. There is some variability in a several degree warmup for Thursday.

GFS mex guidance from the 12z run on the cold side of the envelope from the 00z GFS ensemble runs. For now have highs in the middle/upper 20s with some airmass improvement.

[wisconsinwx]

Looks like another snow event I miss out on. Western Wisconsin, on the other hand, is getting a direct hit from all the storms. I'll bet after this storm they'll have around 25 inches or more for the winter, while we are lucky if we will have 7 or 8. Enjoy!

[baroclinic_instability]

The 18Z GFS seems like a reasonable solution considering the general setup. I think I will wait until 0Z guidance/3Z SREF comes in, but it does look like it will be pretty painful for those on the edge as there will be a pretty sharp cutoff to the snow/no snow on both the south/north ends.

[OceanStWx]

The 18Z GFS seems like a reasonable solution considering the general setup. I think I will wait until 0Z guidance/3Z SREF comes in, but it does look like it will be pretty painful for those on the edge as there will be a pretty sharp cutoff to the snow/no snow on both the south/north ends.

Not unlike the first clipper that came through, and this one looks to target some of those same areas.

[baroclinic_instability]

Not unlike the first clipper that came through, and this one looks to target some of those same areas.

This one isn't nearly as impressive though, and that one actually did have a rather broad zone of light snow surrounding the heavy stuff. This one will have some real sharp edges along the northern extent through parts of WI and northern MN. But yeah, definitely looks like it will affect similar areas.

[Chicago WX]

If anyone was curious what the 12z Euro QPF looked like, the 18z GFS is pretty much spot on, though the band of 0.25-0.5" in MN and IA may need to be shifted a touch south.

[OceanStWx]

This one isn't nearly as impressive though, and that one actually did have a rather broad zone of light snow surrounding the heavy stuff. This one will have some real sharp edges along the northern extent through parts of WI and northern MN. But yeah, definitely looks like it will affect similar areas.

On the norther edge maybe, but in our CWA we went from 4+ inches to 0 in about 10 miles.

[Thundersnow12]

Think were good for possibly a few inches here. GEM has been the most consistent with the GFS/NAM having differences. Interested to see what the 0z runs will show.

[BowMeHunter]

If Euro precip looked anything like that 18z goofus in WI I would be a tad interested in this one. This is a congrats cyclone, enjoy flurries eastern WI.

[Chicago WX]

If Euro precip looked anything like that 18z goofus in WI I would be a tad interested in this one. This is a congrats cyclone, enjoy flurries eastern WI.

True. I tried to mention taking the northern edge/extent of the QPF a bit south. Eh, hopefully you score an inch or two from this one.

[TugHillMatt]

The 18Z GFS seems like a reasonable solution considering the general setup. I think I will wait until 0Z guidance/3Z SREF comes in, but it does look like it will be pretty painful for those on the edge as there will be a pretty sharp cutoff to the snow/no snow on both the south/north ends.

Gee, let me guess where that will be...."hits head" "rolls eyes" and says "good grief" in best Charlie brown voice possible.....

I guess when you get missed over and over again, you come to expect to be missed and then happily surprised when something happens.

[BowMeHunter]

True. I tried to mention taking the northern edge/extent of the QPF a bit south. Eh, hopefully you score an inch or two from this one.

Yeah you were right on the money with what you said. I just wished the Euro looked like the gfs precip map more and I would feel a lot better that the snow doesn't pull a Houdini out this way. Still time for it to look better on this side of the state but seems unlikely in the big picture ATM. Trace to a few tenths is my final call here.

I've probably lost a yr off my life this winter already tracking the last three events for a total of 6" of snow.. But this is what I wait 8 months for and I wouldn't have wanted Dec. to start out any other way... well maybe better snow results lol.. If there wouldn't be a few highs and lots of lows every storm, what fun would tracking be except my body wouldn't be fried today..

Been following this next clipper half ashed since later last week on the euro. There's been a few blips where its showed OK here but it now seems to be locking into a not so ok solution.. not sure it really makes any sense to follow this one like a mad man every 6 hrs like the last 3...who knows, maybe it will surprise me if I don't.

Then we look to maybe quiet down outside of a few inevitable clippers.... If we do have to slow down for a bit At least I'll be recharged with a new attitude for the final 2/3's of winter.