12/15-12/16 MV/GL snow event?

[Hoosier]

Not really sure what to expect here now. Am a little nervous with the latest runs nudging south.

[jhamps10]

PAH issues Winter Storm warning to include the Evansville/Henderson/Owensboro Metro

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY139 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010INZ081-082-086>088-KYZ018>020-160345-/O.UPG.KPAH.WW.Y.0010.101215T2100Z-101216T1500Z//O.NEW.KPAH.WS.W.0005.101215T2100Z-101216T1500Z/GIBSON-PIKE-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN139 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING...AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE DAY. TONIGHT...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLE AS WELL.* MAIN IMPACT...AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER AMOUNTS OF ICING POSSIBLE FROM PETERSBURG TO ROCKPORT INDIANA. SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.* OTHER IMPACTS...IMPACT TO TREES AND POWER LINES IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW...BUT SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY OR

LESSER TRAVELED ROADS...AND ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

[TheWeatherPimp]

INZ028>030-039-152115-

/O.CAN.KIND.WW.Y.0009.101216T0000Z-101216T1800Z/

WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HAMILTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT

301 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS CANCELLED THE

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SOME SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN TWO INCHES.

[LizardMafia]

INZ028>030-039-152115-

/O.CAN.KIND.WW.Y.0009.101216T0000Z-101216T1800Z/

WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HAMILTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT

301 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS CANCELLED THE

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SOME SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN TWO INCHES.

Well, there is always next storm..

[hawkeye_wx]

18z NAM is wetter and broader, especially in eastern Iowa. I'm now in the 0.4-0.5" range. There is even a tiny 0.6" spot near the Quad Cities. I'm actually getting a bit psyched that we may finally get a nice snow.

[Hoosier]

INZ028>030-039-152115-

/O.CAN.KIND.WW.Y.0009.101216T0000Z-101216T1800Z/

WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HAMILTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT

301 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS CANCELLED THE

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SOME SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN TWO INCHES.

18z NAM bumped our qpf. I think we may still get 2"...low confidence overall though given the gradient.

[IWXwx]

Looks like a nice little event for LAF-IND-CVG. You LAF guys are gold on this one. Too bad it's only 2"-3". Could get icey for Beau. I'll take my trace and be happy.

Jinxed.

KIND thinking 15:1 ratio snows with the sweet spot being the I-70 corridor (2-3") per their overnight AFD.

INZ028>030-039-152115-

/O.CAN.KIND.WW.Y.0009.101216T0000Z-101216T1800Z/

WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HAMILTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT

301 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS CANCELLED THE

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

SOME SNOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN TWO INCHES.

Oops! I'll just keep my mouth shut from now on.

[Hoosier]

Oops! I'll just keep my mouth shut from now on.

I'm riding the 2-4" wagon with low confidence. May end up at/near the bottom end and certainly north/east of here is looking worse. Soundings suggest we won't start seeing flakes until the 11 PM-1 AM timeframe.

[Justin]

18z NAM is wetter and broader, especially in eastern Iowa. I'm now in the 0.4-0.5" range. There is even a tiny 0.6" spot near the Quad Cities. I'm actually getting a bit psyched that we may finally get a nice snow.

I'm not feeling real good on this one hawkeye_wx. The air here is really dry and you can tell it by the sky cover...it's going to take a while to saturate the atmosphere, I still don't think we get much more than about 3" and the further East you go the amounts will quickly drop off into the 1-2" range. I think the models are way overdoing the moisture available considering the dry low level easterly flow.

[hawkeye_wx]

I'm not feeling real good on this one hawkeye_wx. The air here is really dry and you can tell it by the sky cover...it's going to take a while to saturate the atmosphere, I still don't think we get much more than about 3" and the further East you go the amounts will quickly drop off into the 1-2" range. I think the models are way overdoing the moisture available considering the dry low level easterly flow.

We managed to get a good snow rate for about 30 minutes this morning, but it dried up. Even if the NAM and GFS are overdoing the moisture and we only get 2-3 inches, it would still be a nice snow by this month's standard.

[Stebo]

I'm not feeling real good on this one hawkeye_wx. The air here is really dry and you can tell it by the sky cover...it's going to take a while to saturate the atmosphere, I still don't think we get much more than about 3" and the further East you go the amounts will quickly drop off into the 1-2" range. I think the models are way overdoing the moisture available considering the dry low level easterly flow.

To put into reference what Justin is saying here, northern IL/southern WI have dewpoints in the single digits, some really dry air there.

[Chicago Storm]

DVN goes RUC wild...

OVERALL...MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS POOR IN REGARDS TO LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE.

THE OVERALL FCST IS COMPLEX AS NO MODEL IS HANDLING WHAT IS

CURRENTLY GOING ON. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE AN IDEA AND HAVE USED IT

HEAVILY FOR OVERALL TRENDS. BASED ON RADAR AND RUC TRENDS THE NEW

SNOW BAND LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE CID/DBQ/ALO TRIANGLE. RUC

TRENDS SHOW THE STRONGEST FORCING DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ROUGHLY

ON AN AXIS FROM ABOUT KALO TO BETWEEN KVYS AND KC75. IF THIS TURNS

OUT TO BE THE MAIN AXIS IT WOULD JUST CLIP THE IMMEDIATE QC METRO

AREA. A BURST OF SNOW SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS

SATURATION OCCURS FOLLOWED BY A LULL WITH THE NEXT ROUND STARTING

AROUND MIDNIGHT. SNOW CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND

GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF TO FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER SOUTH...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING ALOFT LATE

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING RAPIDLY DISAPPEARS SO THERE

IS A THREAT OF FZDZ. A DRY LAYER ALOFT WOULD PROMOTE SLEET

PRODUCTION AS SATURATION OCCURS THIS EVENING.

REGARDING HEADLINES...THE CURRENT HEADLINES WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL

NOON THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME RESPECTABLE SNOW FALLING

AT 12Z OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA. FURTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH

IN THE WAY OF SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE

FZDZ COULD CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. RIGHT NOW...FEEL THE CHANCE OF A

HEADLINE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA IS ABOUT 1 IN 3 SO HAVE

OPTED NOT TO GO WITH ANY HEADLINES THERE. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO

THE EVENING SHIFT TO WATCH THAT AREA CAREFULLY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS...FIGURING ON A 14 TO 1 RATIO RESULTS IN 5 TO 6

INCHES IN THE MAIN SNOW AXIS WHICH PLACES IT AT A HIGH END ADVISORY

WITH 2 TO 4 ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES

ARE POSSIBLE. A SHARP GRADIENT WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST

WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED SOUTH OF HWY 34. THERE ARE STILL

QUESTIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT AMOUNTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE

MAIN AXIS. WILL ALSO PASS THIS CONCERN ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

[Thundersnow12]

nice long summary from LOT, some old school hand analysis as well.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN WITH SNOW POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH

THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING FORECASTED SNOWFALL AND ADVISORY

ARE STILL ON TRACK WITH HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES

TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...2 TO

4 INCHES FROM ROCKFORD SOUTHEAST TO JOLIET AND FOWLER IN

INDIANA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND

NORTHWEST INDIANA AND UP TO AN INCH OVER FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORY DESPITE LOWER

SNOWFALL TOTALS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY.

THIS DECISION WAS MADE BASED ON A COUPLE OF ISSUES.

FIRST...DESPITE LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE

NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...DIDNT WANT TO PULL THE

ADVISORY AND CAUSE CONFUSION WHEN ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS

STILL POSSIBLE. ALSO...SOME OF THIS SNOW MAY FALL DURING A BUSY

DRIVING TIME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING CREATING HAZARDOUS

CONDITIONS...THUS STILL WARRANTING SOME TYPE OF HEADLINE.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE

SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...PRESSURE

FALLS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH

THE STRONGEST LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...IN

RESPONSE TO SEVERAL MID LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER

THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS CURRENT SURFACE

LOW IN OKLAHOMA TRACKS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN

MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING NARROW AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS

CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL

IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING

THAT THIS IS DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK

MID LEVEL FORCING. AS SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS EAST THIS

EVENING...ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL TO EXPAND FROM EASTERN IOWA

SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE WAKE OF EXPANDING BROAD

WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE CWA ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FROM 12Z

SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH DVN AND ILX IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF DRIER

AIR PRESENT. ITS THIS DRIER AIR WHICH MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF

PRECIP AS IT COULD TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY

SATURATE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO

REALLY EXPAND OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA CLOSER

TO THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES IN

RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO

INCREASING/MOVING OVER THE REGION. MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT

DOES DECREASE TOWARDS THE 6AM TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH STILL ENOUGH

TO PROVIDE DECENT LIFT FOR PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MID

THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THAT BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD

OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...SO HAVE INDICATED THAT

WITH CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HAVE TRENDED CURRENT FORECAST WITH

GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS. 12Z 850 THERMAL HAND ANALYSIS INDICATED

THAT THE GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE.

ALSO...RADAR IMAGERY AT THE TIME WAS SHOWING SNOW ALREADY

DEVELOPING IN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA WHERE THE

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL INDICATED THE SAME WITH THE 12Z NAM NOT HAVING

MUCH OF A HANDLE ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING. THEN 12Z ECMWF MIMICKED

THE 12Z GFS...PROVIDING BETTER SUPPORT FOR THIS MODEL DECISION. IN

THE END WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE HAVE TRENDED BACK ON HIGHER

POPS OVER FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS IT

APPEARS THAT BEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REMAIN ORIENTED TO THE

SOUTHWEST. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST

PORTION OF THE CWA AND CURRENT ADVISORY WHERE A DRIER SNOW...OF A

14:1/13:1 SLR...WILL FALL.

[hoosierwx]

LMK:

AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION

TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY EXPAND TO THE

NORTHEAST. WE BELIEVE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS

THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

AND THEN DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. BASED ON THE

LATEST FORECASTS...WE BELIEVE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATER

THIS EVENING IN THE LOUISVILLE/E-TOWN AREAS...AND THEN A FEW HOURS

LATER IN AREAS NORTH AND EAST. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE

REGION...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO BE INSISTENT ON

DEVELOPING AN E-W AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL

KENTUCKY AND THEN MOVING IT SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THIS PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF AN

IMPRESSIVE 50KT 850HPA JET AXIS NOSING INTO SOUTHERN KY. AS THIS

OCCURS...STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER GETS GOING

AND THE STRONG LIFT WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG ADIABATIC COOLING AND

ENHANCED DENDRITIC GROWTH IN THE -10 TO -12 DEGREE REGION. THUS

FEEL THAT A HEAVY SNOW BAND IS LIKELY POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA TONIGHT. THE AMOUNT OF ADIABATIC

COOLING...IN THEORY...APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IN

THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO

AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST INDIANA EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE

NORTHERN BLUEGRASS REGION...GENERALLY A BIT NORTH OF THE I-64

CORRIDOR. THE 12Z GFS AGREES TO AN EXTENT WITH THE NAM ON

THIS...BUT ITS QPF IS LESS. IN GENERAL...TAKING A BLEND OF BOTH

MODELS RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF SE INDIANA AND THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS. IN GENERAL...WE BELIEVE

THAT A CORRIDOR OF 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM

SCOTT-JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN SE INDIANA TO HARRISON AND NICHOLAS

COUNTIES IN KY. SOME CHANGE OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR

LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS...RESULTING

IN SOME ICING...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT ANY ICING WILL BE LESS THAN A

TENTH OF AN INCH.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH

CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE

DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AT ONSET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP

ERODE THE DEPTH OF THE PRE-EXISTING COLD LAYER FROM TOP TO BOTTOM

RESULTING IN A RATHER THIN LAYER OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SFC.

THUS...EXPECT THAT SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET

AND THEN OVER TO FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THE FREEZING RAIN

COULD BE RATHER HEAVY AT TIMES RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT ICING

ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS TIME WE BELIEVE THAT A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES

OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM

NEAR SALEM INDIANA TO RICHMOND KY. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE LEXINGTON

AND LOUISVILLE METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...AS THE NIGHT WEARS

ON...ENOUGH WARM IS EXPECTED TO GET INTO THIS AREA WITH A CHANGE

OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. THUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.25 TO 0.35

INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

GOING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA...MAINLY ALONG

A LINE FROM JASPER INDIANA SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR LIBERTY

KY...PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE

TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN. 1-2 INCHES OF

SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE

DUE TO THE QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS THE AREA

THAT WE ARE MOST CONCERNED WITH GETTING 0.30 TO 0.50 INCHES OF ICE

ACCUMULATION...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ICING POSSIBLE.

ACROSS SOUTHERN KY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW

HOURS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW/SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING

RAIN. A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING

AND A CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AN INCH OR

LESS OF SLEET/SNOW IS EXPECTED HERE...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM

HARTFORD TO ALBANY KENTUCKY. ICING AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCHES OR MORE

WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER

TO RAIN.

[hawkeye_wx]

Quad Cities NWS has lowered Cedar Rapids to 2-3 inches. They think the heaviest band will be farther northeast where it is currently beginning to increase on radar.

[janetjanet998]

18z NAM wetter over the QC and PIA over .5 inches now...18z GFS looks the same as 12z (.33 inches or so)

[cyclone77]

This morning before I left for work I was pretty confident about 3-4" here, but I'm starting to wonder a bit now. Was very surprised to see the changes on the 12z runs. The 12z NAM looked ridiculously dry though. I know we have dry air in place, but jesus. I don't think any model is picking up the snows north of Omaha very well.

[baroclinic_instability]

Quad Cities NWS has lowered Cedar Rapids to 2-3 inches. They think the heaviest band will be farther northeast where it is currently beginning to increase on radar.

I know you guys have been shafted a lot this year, but I wouldn't give up yet. The models are really keying in on the ejecting wave influencing heavier snow showers over your area, and that blob of qpf to your W is just that. That should fill in over your area.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

WTF? NWS Louisville's forecast just shifted to 2" snow/sleet accumulation + 0.33-0.5" ice tonight PLUS 0.1-0.33" additional ice tomorrow!? So basically a possible total of 0.5-0.9" ice!? Please tell me this is a joke...

[janetjanet998]

I don't think any model is picking up the snows north of Omaha very well.

not snow sleet and freezing rain

[cyclone77]

not snow sleet and freezing rain

Ahh, okay.

The leading band looks like it's starting to saturate the column. A pretty nice band taking shape aloft over the QC. Should be snowing there very soon I would think. That slug of moisture in western Iowa is interesting. It looks like as that approaches later this evening it will develop and enhance bands southwest of the leading band. In other words I think we'll see things fill out pretty quickly in the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City areas over the next few hours.

[*IndyMeso*]

WTF? NWS Louisville's forecast just shifted to 2" snow/sleet accumulation + 0.33-0.5" ice tonight PLUS 0.1-0.33" additional ice tomorrow!? So basically a possible total of 0.5-0.9" ice!? Please tell me this is a joke...

I talked to NWS Louisville this afternoon. They were fairly certain of 0.25 to 0.5 inch of ice in southeastern Indiana. I was a little hesitant on them mentioning 0.5 but an ADDITIONAL amount... that just blows my mind. Im shocked.

[cyclone77]

Wow. 25dBZ returns right over me right now and not a flake. I'm only about 25 miles away from the radar site.

[hoosierwx]

WTF? NWS Louisville's forecast just shifted to 2" snow/sleet accumulation + 0.33-0.5" ice tonight PLUS 0.1-0.33" additional ice tomorrow!? So basically a possible total of 0.5-0.9" ice!? Please tell me this is a joke...

They are now saying 2-3" of snow/sleet with .50' ice tonight and 1/4" ice tommorrow for up here. Mind boggling how this thing just keeps trending up hour by hour. Pretty big bust potential IMO.

[baroclinic_instability]

This is looking like bust city up north in MN in terms of the eastward extent of that winter storm warning. That dry air is dominating.

[prinsburg_wx]

This is looking like bust city up north in MN in terms of the eastward extent of that winter storm warning. That dry air is dominating.

i'm wondering the same over here in the Willmar area, MPX saying 4-8 but wondering if thats kind of high...the thing hasn't really started yet.

[baroclinic_instability]

i'm wondering the same over here in the Willmar area, MPX saying 4-8 but wondering if thats kind of high...the thing hasn't really started yet.

I think you are better off than here. They have us getting 6+, will be lucky to see 1-2".

[baroclinic_instability]

i'm wondering the same over here in the Willmar area, MPX saying 4-8 but wondering if thats kind of high...the thing hasn't really started yet.

I saw a report of 1" in Willmar. Concur?

[Chicago WX]

Oops! I'll just keep my mouth shut from now on.

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 21. East southeast wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

No worries though, this one just is isn't in the cards for LAF. You win some, you lose some.

[prinsburg_wx]

I saw a report of 1" in Willmar. Concur?

i'm about 15mi sw of willmar and maybe .5 so far here. It may look nice on radar but not doing much at the moment but a few flurries.