Wx4cast Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Just looking at the medium range data from OOZ last night and 12z this AM all indications point to an active and potentially stormy period of wx from the middle of next week right on thru the holiday weekend. After ALL data from yesterday's 12z (17 Nov) model runs said the Wed 23 Nov storm threat was either OTS or a glancing blow for some areas of NYS/New England (NEN) last night's data said hold your horses. Of all the models the EC 00z/18 Nov run is the most ominous. Comparing the 12z 18 Nov run of the GFSvalid for Wed evening the 22nd of Nov to last night's 00Z EC run for the same time period Both models have the area of LP across the OH/TN Valleys, the H500 ridge out west over or a tick west of the Rockies (perhaps a bit too far east if one wants a coastal low to lift up towards NEN. However if one looks at the H500 flow over SE Canada the EC (from last night) has much stronger confluence along with a much stronger anticyclone too across the SE Canada. This could lead to a cold-air damming over the NEUS along with the possibility for a centerjump or 2ndary redevelopment along the mid-Atlantic coast. The spectre of a 2ndary development does leave open the possibility of an OTS track yet an up the coast track is possible, too. Finally posted below is the 12z 18 Nov extended UK charts. The UK is showing an OTS scenario BUT when this run is compared to last nights00z run it is trending more N and a bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The DGEX shows a snowstorm for Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 At the "southern command" on the hilltop in Monroe next week. Kinda getting the feeling I have a better chance of adding to the 16" down there from the Halloween storm than getting my first shoveling event up here. Might be a hair too warm up where it counts though which might put ZR in play if it comes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I think GFL would be a better choice. The ECM is pretty amped. Nice cold rain in Monroe probably. At the "southern command" on the hilltop in Monroe next week. Kinda getting the feeling I have a better chance of adding to the 16" down there from the Halloween storm than getting my first shoveling event up here. Might be a hair too warm up where it counts though which might put ZR in play if it comes at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I think GFL would be a better choice. The ECM is pretty amped. Nice cold rain in Monroe probably. Well yes, assuming the ECM is right and it doesn't wind up a less amplified compromise which might fringe GFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Wow...........Looks like you've got to live in Toronto to get a snowstorm out of this. definitely didn't see that coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I am kinda hoping it's a quiet week weather wise---I have not even prepped the truck OR the plow for the season.....with it still hovering around the 50 and 60 degree mark, I figure there is still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 I'll update my thoughts on this storm later today as I am currently perusing the 12z data along w/ waiting for full 12z EC. Looks like a fairly strong "overruning" PIVA SWF sort of event. Mostly a cold rain though some higher terrain areas could start off briefly as sleet/snow and/or mixed with rain. Along and north of a Mohawk Valley-N'rn Berkshires line may end as some wet snow, especially the higher up you are the better your chances of ending as such. If anyone sees an accumulation will all depend on whether or not the system cuts-off or not. Only model showing this (was the 20-00z) EC and for now I think it is a bit too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The 6Z NAM doesn't get the 850 0C line above about an ART to Middlebury, VT line... So maybe game on for a snow event in a lot of Northern NY. I think the models are backing off the idea of driving the low right through Central NY. Maybe we all stay in the cold sector (albeit cold rain). I'll update my thoughts on this storm later today as I am currently perusing the 12z data along w/ waiting for full 12z EC. Looks like a fairly strong "overruning" PIVA SWF sort of event. Mostly a cold rain though some higher terrain areas could start off briefly as sleet/snow and/or mixed with rain. Along and north of a Mohawk Valley-N'rn Berkshires line may end as some wet snow, especially the higher up you are the better your chances of ending as such. If anyone sees an accumulation will all depend on whether or not the system cuts-off or not. Only model showing this (was the 20-00z) EC and for now I think it is a bit too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It looks to me like the trends are increasingly putting GFL back into the game for snow. Probably not yet ALB, but anywhere north of there increasing interest. 36/25 here now so at least we are having a good wintery day. Someone said the UKMET was snowier also on the SNE side. The 6Z NAM doesn't get the 850 0C line above about an ART to Middlebury, VT line... So maybe game on for a snow event in a lot of Northern NY. I think the models are backing off the idea of driving the low right through Central NY. Maybe we all stay in the cold sector (albeit cold rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 SREF Mean snowfall probs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 420 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011 NYZ033-042-043-083-VTZ013>015-221000- /O.NEW.KALY.WS.A.0012.111123T0500Z-111124T0500Z/ HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPECULATOR...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL... GRANVILLE...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...BENNINGTON... JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO... BELLOWS FALLS 420 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 You better stay in GFL. :snowman: Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 420 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011 NYZ033-042-043-083-VTZ013>015-221000- /O.NEW.KALY.WS.A.0012.111123T0500Z-111124T0500Z/ HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPECULATOR...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL... GRANVILLE...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...BENNINGTON... JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO... BELLOWS FALLS 420 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...AND THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY. 8 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You better stay in GFL. :snowman: Yeah........Good thing is it looks like I won't have to drive very far south before everything is just wet so the trip downstate won't take a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 00z NAM wants to give me over a foot...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It could be quite a thump of snow where it's cold enough to cool the column and +SN for awhile. Your main problem is probably your elevation challenged situation, but maybe that won't matter. Andy needs to chime in since he may be snowed in on Wednesday. 00z NAM wants to give me over a foot...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Well I think there are a total of two of us commenting on this thread...but the latest from ALB: LATEST 12Z NAM HAS ARRIVED AND ITS TRENDS...ALONG WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES...ARE A BIT ALARMING. WE MAY SEE SOME CHANGES TO HEADLINES AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ALONG WITH MESOSCALE IMPACTS ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR VIA THE 2D FGEN. MORE DETAILS ONCE ALL OF THE 12Z DATA HAS ARRIVED... It could be quite a thump of snow where it's cold enough to cool the column and +SN for awhile. Your main problem is probably your elevation challenged situation, but maybe that won't matter. Andy needs to chime in since he may be snowed in on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Sounds like precip rates are going to overcome the warm layer. Even you are in the game via the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Seems like a big front end thump event...8-10 hours where the vast bulk of it falls... That usually bodes well for snow if you have cold enough air at the onset which GFL will.... It's one of those deals where intensity tends to sustain it and then maybe you do ultimately mix over as rates lesson, but the damage has been done. Yeah NAM implies we could pull off some snow for awhile by a few miles here, while the GFS says it's all N/E of ALB. After the 17F start....pumped up to 32.5 here now, but getting milky with high clouds filtering the sun more. Sounds like precip rates are going to overcome the warm layer. Even you are in the game via the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Seems like a big front end thump event...8-10 hours where the vast bulk of it falls... That usually bodes well for snow if you have cold enough air at the onset which GFL will.... It's one of those deals where intensity tends to sustain it and then maybe you do ultimately mix over as rates lesson, but the damage has been done. Yeah NAM implies we could pull off some snow for awhile by a few miles here, while the GFS says it's all N/E of ALB. After the 17F start....pumped up to 32.5 here now, but getting milky with high clouds filtering the sun more. Should be interesting to see how things evolve tonight. Precipitation is riding along the warm frontal boundary and is streaming in much faster than originally forecasted. I think locations that weren't expecting any wintry precipitation may be in store for a surprise for the first 2-4 hours of the event before the strong WAA kicks in aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Steady snow here and sticking to everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Pushing an inch now as intensity picks up. Gotta get some sleep to get up early to clear driveway if necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 AH...another seasonal milestone achieved. The first 33 degree rain of the season! It's depressingly unsatisfying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 FZRA from the start here. At least 1/4 inch of ice accretion and it turned to PL at some point. I woke from a nap and now -PL. 30.0F. AH...another seasonal milestone achieved. The first 33 degree rain of the season! It's depressingly unsatisfying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 FZRA from the start here. At least 1/4 inch of ice accretion and it turned to PL at some point. I woke from a nap and now -PL. 30.0F. Not bad. Still 33 here...light coating of sleet on the patio table. More than I expected I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 In the past hour it has mixed over to mainly snow at times when heavier. Now back to a light sleet. Not bad. Still 33 here...light coating of sleet on the patio table. More than I expected I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 When I left Saratoga Springs around 2 AM they had around 5" and the snow was just turning to rain.. now just plain rain here in ALB with a temp of 32.7 and no accumulation. Its amazing what 30 miles will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: here now but has flipped to a rn/sn mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Nice.... FZRA here and 31.3F...holding steady for awhile now. About an inch of glop from the earlier mix, but just freezing rain since about 1:00 AM. Four inch icicles hanging off the deck railing. :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: here now but has flipped to a rn/sn mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Nice.... FZRA here and 31.3F...holding steady for awhile now. About an inch of glop from the earlier mix, but just freezing rain since about 1:00 AM. Four inch icicles hanging off the deck railing. Very dense snow content...........At least no work for me when I get down to Monroe this afternoon Happy Thanksgiving ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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