Logan11 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 We ended up getting 1.4" from the LES snow stuff... A nice pretty surprise. Euro has some potential for this area midweek so have to hope for the best. It always does this. We get some lake effect snow or even system snow in November then it warms up melting it. Then in early December hell breaks loose when the Arctic air finally makes it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This is a progressive pattern.. so it will amp only to a certain point. I'd feel good north of the mass border. mass pike south it's looking to amped on both models at this point for next week's storm as modeled now. Better pattern incoming though per weeklies and i'd say week 2 of december looks like a change in the pattern at this point. Good times ahead. This system is very similar to a lot of SWFE that we had in 07-08 up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 This system could easily track entirely west of New England...also could whiff us south. Speculation is fun I guess but being 5+ days out, its almost a fruitless task trying to say anyone is likely to get snow out it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This system could easily track entirely west of New England...also could whiff us south. Speculation is fun I guess but being 5+ days out, its almost a fruitless task trying to say anyone is likely to get snow out it. I would think right now there is a much better chance of this storm whiffing us to the south than seeing a solution which cuts the storm west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The 00z Euro is a nice rainstorm for you. I don't care.. it's a big storm that if threads the needle would be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I just realized I went with a warmer than normal December in my winter outlook...I had been thinking I went colder than normal even though I wanted to go warmer and I was beating myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This system could easily track entirely west of New England...also could whiff us south. Speculation is fun I guess but being 5+ days out, its almost a fruitless task trying to say anyone is likely to get snow out it. Yes, I made a reference to that if it gets to amped, Its kind of a catch 22 without blocking, It could get sheared out and whiff south just as easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This system could easily track entirely west of New England...also could whiff us south. Speculation is fun I guess but being 5+ days out, its almost a fruitless task trying to say anyone is likely to get snow out it. It sure beats daily departure posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This is incredible that amid one of the warmest autumns on record for New England, it's also the snowiest autumn on record, with the option for a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This is incredible that amid one of the warmest autumns on record for New England, it's also the snowiest autumn on record, with the option for a little more That's how winter should be. Cold for 3-4 days so we can get lots of snow, then 60's+ for a good week to get rid of it all, then 3-4 days of cold to get more snow, then 60's+ to get rid of it...just keep repeating this cycle until we get to May then severe wx season begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That's how winter should be. Cold for 3-4 days so we can get lots of snow, then 60's+ for a good week to get rid of it all, then 3-4 days of cold to get more snow, then 60's+ to get rid of it...just keep repeating this cycle until we get to May then severe wx season begins. Ew gross! Paul, just go hibernate for 6 months. We'll wake you up for the first slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Do the euro ensembles that go out to 300 + hours still show the AK vortex retrograding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Ew gross! Paul, just go hibernate for 6 months. We'll wake you up for the first slight risk Cold blows and snowpack does too...especially if there is so much snow...last winter it made it nearly impossible to shovel b/c I have bushes all along both sidewalks and my driveway so I had to throw the snow up over the bushes...horrible. Makes it difficult to walk too...have to stay on the sidewalk and can't take shortcuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That's how winter should be. Cold for 3-4 days so we can get lots of snow, then 60's+ for a good week to get rid of it all, then 3-4 days of cold to get more snow, then 60's+ to get rid of it...just keep repeating this cycle until we get to May then severe wx season begins. Have another hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yes, I made a reference to that if it gets to amped, Its kind of a catch 22 without blocking, It could get sheared out and whiff south just as easily Something in me says an in between solution.. something that may be better for CNE sort of deal. But agreed, It could phase earlier ala +NAO or slide out more sheared. Something to be watching anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Do the euro ensembles that go out to 300 + hours still show the AK vortex retrograding? They show it weakening but its still a pretty hostile pattern going into early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This is a progressive pattern.. so it will amp only to a certain point. I'd feel good north of the mass border. mass pike south it's looking to amped on both models at this point for next week's storm as modeled now. Better pattern incoming though per weeklies and i'd say week 2 of december looks like a change in the pattern at this point. Good times ahead. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Something in me says an in between solution.. something that may be better for CNE sort of deal. But agreed, It could phase earlier ala +NAO or slide out more sheared. Something to be watching anyway. It is something to watch and beats listening to the endless summer talk and torch temp post, We will see how it plays out over the next few days, At least there is some light at the end of the tunnel overall pattern wise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 How do the Euro ens look? Both for the snowstrom next week and longer term? This system could easily track entirely west of New England...also could whiff us south. Speculation is fun I guess but being 5+ days out, its almost a fruitless task trying to say anyone is likely to get snow out it. We know where that came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Cold blows and snowpack does too...especially if there is so much snow...last winter it made it nearly impossible to shovel b/c I have bushes all along both sidewalks and my driveway so I had to throw the snow up over the bushes...horrible. Makes it difficult to walk too...have to stay on the sidewalk and can't take shortcuts. Get a cheap pair of snowshoes at Ocean State Joblot $45. That way you can scream into the wind but glide atop the pack. Nice to see some hints at that bastage in Alaska weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 They show it weakening but its still a pretty hostile pattern going into early December. Will, What are we going to need to see happen to get rid of that vortex over AK and replace it with higher heights in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 They show it weakening but its still a pretty hostile pattern going into early December. I was wondering if the euro showed a snowstorm for mby next week in toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Get a cheap pair of snowshoes at Ocean State Joblot $45. That way you can scream into the wind but glide atop the pack. Nice to see some hints at that bastage in Alaska weakening. I am thinking of getting a pair of Timbs. I haven't had those since I was in 8th grade when I went through my wigger stage. Yeah thank God...I would think it should continue to slowly weaken over the course of the next several weeks but first we'll have to go through periods of above-average warmth...having a NAO which will be strongly positive at times won't help either but the NAO I would think should eventually trend negative, perhaps just about as the same time as the EPO does the same. Everything may take another month or so to fully go on our side but we'll eventually get there. In another month from now we all will be talking about what fun times lay ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Will, What are we going to need to see happen to get rid of that vortex over AK and replace it with higher heights in that area? MJO into phase 5/6? That would help promote higher heights up there. Then we should see some effects of that bear fruit a week or so later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I am thinking of getting a pair of Timbs. I haven't had those since I was in 8th grade when I went through my wigger stage. Yeah thank God...I would think it should continue to slowly weaken over the course of the next several weeks but first we'll have to go through periods of above-average warmth...having a NAO which will be strongly positive at times won't help either but the NAO I would think should eventually trend negative, perhaps just about as the same time as the EPO does the same. Everything may take another month or so to fully go on our side but we'll eventually get there. In another month from now we all will be talking about what fun times lay ahead. What is the site that puts these into graphical form? Is there 1 that does both where you can overlay them or otherwise compare them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 MJO into phase 5/6? That would help promote higher heights up there. Then we should see some effects of that bear fruit a week or so later. At least the MJO shows signs of moving right along for now. Hopefully a progressive, but somewhat modest amplitude type wave can get into phase 6 and really shuffle the pattern around and kick the AK trough out. I don't think a weak wave would do much more than perhaps force a transient cold shot. I think we want a stronger wave to help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 MJO into phase 5/6? That would help promote higher heights up there. Then we should see some effects of that bear fruit a week or so later. MJO phases 5/6 aren't good for us though are they? I thought those phases lead to more ridging here in the east...or is this only if the signal is stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 What is the site that puts these into graphical form? Is there 1 that does both where you can overlay them or otherwise compare them? I'm not sure of a site that compares them. I don't even know of any site that does the EPO in graphical form our forecast...just NAO/PNA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 MJO phases 5/6 aren't good for us though are they? I thought those phases lead to more ridging here in the east...or is this only if the signal is stronger? Phase 5 is still warm for us but it starts promoting some higher heights toward AK using the December composite...he was asking about the vortex up there, not our temp anomalies. Phase 6 isn't that warm in December, it is in Jan/Feb. You always hae to be careful with this stuff though. As we have said in the past, the MJO only has an influence of any real consequence if the wave is fairly robust. If it is weak, it is probably not doing much forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm not sure of a site that compares them. I don't even know of any site that does the EPO in graphical form our forecast...just NAO/PNA http://www.cpc.ncep....nnections.shtml Thanks... I thought there was an EPO one, but that's fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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