ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Do we want that to get dislodged east? west? North? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yes. LOL, anywhere but AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yes. All of the above..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 LOL, anywhere but AK. In the Z direction? What a fooking boring 7 weeks from the time of 10/30 to like Xmas this will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Replace it with a high pressure ridge, Thats what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I wonder if the danger next week is more from suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I wonder if the danger next week is more from suppression. 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 I wonder if the danger next week is more from suppression. It might be if that southern stream energy is kind of weak. It looked more robust on the Euro than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I wonder if the danger next week is more from suppression. I think it would be if it remains strung out and weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 00z GFS Eh, it still a possibility it comes close with that southern s/w. It will be all about timing of these s/w's which at that stage of the game, is impossible to figure out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Eh, it still a possibility it comes close with that southern s/w. It will be all about timing of these s/w's which at that stage of the game, is impossible to figure out right now. Yeah its such a putrid setup to begin with that there is really no margin for error...which basically makes it an impossible forecast at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 GFS ensembles were north of the op, for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 GFS ensembles were north of the op, for next week. Red Flag. Crappy pattern though. We've thread the needle before, maybe we can do it again? Is this like a SWFE from 07-08? I felt like once we got inside a few days, the track pretty much was set in stone (give or take 50 miles either side) BTW...can't stand the lady on the Target Christmas commercials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Euro is an electric bath for everybody at 132 hours, maybe some good backend snows for Northern VT, NH, and ME. Surface low tracks from Pittsburgh to NYC and then off Mountauk. Backend flurries maybe as it looks like there's a phase at 156 as the ULL closes off over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 That's pretty amped up. It actually gives a couple inches of back end snow to most of SNE after 150 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 euro is just trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Meanwhile, UKMET looks more like the GFS and the Canadian is just Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Meanwhile, UKMET looks more like the GFS and the Canadian is just With no blocking features in place, it seems as if this storm doesn't have a 100 mile wide "slot" to be steered into by said absent block...kind of at the mercy of the timing/strength of the shortwaves. Small difference can mean 200 mile shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 It looks pretty interesting for Upstate NY though. Threading the needle yeah, but that's how we still ended up with 62 inches in the winter of 05-06 for instance. Hopefully this years Pacific pattern yields to sometthing better for the true winter though. Euro is an electric bath for everybody at 132 hours, maybe some good backend snows for Northern VT, NH, and ME. Surface low tracks from Pittsburgh to NYC and then off Mountauk. Backend flurries maybe as it looks like there's a phase at 156 as the ULL closes off over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 It always does this. We get some lake effect snow or even system snow in November then it warms up melting it. Then in early December hell breaks loose when the Arctic air finally makes it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 LES snow showers here now have put down a minimal coating. I got 8 inches over those few snowy days in late October, but these are the first flakes courtesy of Lake Ontario. It always does this. We get some lake effect snow or even system snow in November then it warms up melting it. Then in early December hell breaks loose when the Arctic air finally makes it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 My guess is somewhere in between the EURO and GFS...maybe a little closer to the EURO, but the latter is likely too amped. Suspect that the EURO overphased that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 It looks pretty interesting for Upstate NY though. Threading the needle yeah, but that's how we still ended up with 62 inches in the winter of 05-06 for instance. Hopefully this years Pacific pattern yields to sometthing better for the true winter though. EC is mostly rain for you. It gets a little interesting here due to latitude, but it's mostly rain for me as well. There's a weak CAD signal in there though. I'd assume above 850 is the warmest layer in the column as well just going by SWFE climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That's pretty amped up. It actually gives a couple inches of back end snow to most of SNE after 150 hours. It is pretty impressive. I would expect something a little weaker/south (not necessarily like GFS). Frankly though, I have no issue with a stormy TG even if it's cold and rainy. Just don't make it a torch and rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 How do the Euro ens look? Both for the snowstrom next week and longer term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 It is pretty impressive. I would expect something a little weaker/south (not necessarily like GFS). Frankly though, I have no issue with a stormy TG even if it's cold and rainy. Just don't make it a torch and rain! This reminds of the years I lived in LA. Even though the average resident worshipped the sun, cold rain on Thanksgiving and Xmas were coveted and the years when it happened people were happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 My guess is somewhere in between the EURO and GFS...maybe a little closer to the EURO, but the latter is likely too amped. Suspect that the EURO overphased that run. Sour feeling about this system. Sounds like too many s/w's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 It looks pretty interesting for Upstate NY though. Threading the needle yeah, but that's how we still ended up with 62 inches in the winter of 05-06 for instance. Hopefully this years Pacific pattern yields to sometthing better for the true winter though. Euro is mostly rain, still, until the back end of the storm. Hopefully it works out though...I'll be in Londonderry, VT during the storm system so I'm hoping for a more northerly track...although it seems like a lose-lose situation where we lose the majority of the cold air if the storm is farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 How do the Euro ens look? Both for the snowstrom next week and longer term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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